Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Apologies need to update protection .

HBR at end of Q3 will be in a Cash position to buy BASF shares at £3.60 will they pull the trigger , maybe as consolidation agreement ends .

Would be a sound move in my opinion .

HBR

Low expectations for next week

Half year Revenue $5.5

Prod 490k

Free Cash $700m

Debt $4.2 .

Only Hope Letter One news , shares bought and cancelled .

Tough year of High Tax and integration costs .

Reckon this is tied to Letter One shares i would suspect a deal to take over and cancel 251m shares is part of this .

Great news if correct

2025 is the year BASF people and infrastructure will be rationalised and integrated as required so i would see large write downs this year .

The above costs will be efficiently set as Tax losses with a saving in 2026 Tax year of $500m .

My assumption on the Buyout of HBR is Tax benefit . When is the Optimum time for purchase and cancellation and with integration and rationalisation this Tax year may not work for the bottom line .

NSS Great work on the info

Concerns over a Cheap Buyout by BP at anything less than £10 still cheap .

Saw clever suppression of Premier from Asia for years .

Question while HBR builds into a Significant Post Tax profit producer id the Defence strategy v Hostile /cheap takeover .

BP now has all they need on HBR so an Accelerated plan needs to circumvent the risk now posed .

Should BP offer BASF and Letter One , £4 per share i would assume they would take it ?

Or in the small print of our BASF/Letter One do we have a clause giving HBR first option ?

TK

Hess has more Debt than HBR , the Key is Post Tax profit around $3.5 b

Total Shares in Issue { Hess has around 300m only }

USA Listing as Pro O&G .

Agree we have the opportunity on this production to be another Hess with 3 moves :

Post Tax profit which will be comparable end of 2027 .

Buy out and cancel BASF and Letter One by 2026 .

List in USA in 2027 .

Hess Shares at over £100 when sold to Chevron .

This can be Done .

Kan resource now bigger to HBR than Zama and we control the field . An added bonus no Pemex , so this should be our No 1 priority in Mexico ,

IF we can strike the right watertight deal with the Govt we should be go in 2027 .

Strange how posts here get censored .

In a Nutshell as not rewriting a long answer check out Hess Energy and Woodside as comparable production .

The secret is Post Tax Profit and Shares in Issue thats why Hess is £100 per share .

Glitch in system : 670m BASF shares would cost £2.4 b

HBR can afford to make the Deal at end Q2 , avoiding the Divi payment to BASF .

This would clear the Decks and take the share price over £4 imho .

HBR will have Cherry picked the Talent by that point .

Presently we have £1.3 b cash and the Ability to access cheap loans .

At £3.60 per share 670m

The Financial conditions of any NS investment are critical , new drilling and licence purchases will not take place without financial clarity . Nobody will extract at these WFT rates , its not profitable . The Easy part is saying carry on development . Lets see the financial detail from Govt even though they have only 4 years LEFT .

Asia for me has huge potential , the margins PMO made on Natuna and Vietnam were excellent when in full production .

Wondering where the obstruction is here , as resources and markets in place .

Are the Indonesian Govt being supportive and what are the risks v Mexico ?

Maybe same concerns , after UK showed how to destroy a potential money maker .

NSS

Always enjoy the positive list .

Would say that on NS consultation any change produced to the financial regime should be positive for HBR , worst case nothing changes .

Also on another note the Hotchi court case goes to prove how untrustworthy the Mexican Govt is .

On Mexico we should take a position that is simple , we run the show and pay Pemex/ Mexican Govt $20 boe end of story .

Maybe and it's a Big maybe , the muppets in power can use this situation to excuse a North Sea U- Turn .

Simple solution apply Norway model then you get investment , Tax and secure home production .

Maybe to Simplistic .

Now is the Time for HBR to secure itself financially until 2028 when Argentina and possibly Indonesia are going full steam . Premier Oil for those who were in Failed due to not securing decent hedges while new production came on line . While HBR are a very different animal , i would over the next month secure $80 hedges min for 2026 and 2027 for 66% of production .

The window of Opportunity is now open to de-risk , i was of the same opinion with PMO pre covid and here we are again .

Oil over $100 will be brief with Trump in .

NSS

Having Talos onboard in Mexico with a small holding maybe beneficial , as they are an American company and we know how the Orange man will protect his own from any slippery Mexican moves .

UK presently makes sense , as all costs of running NS business and an expensive Head office , would be Tax Deductible from North Sea Revenue pre Windfall Tax . I would presume .

Relisting in US Will happen in a few years , once Tax credits are substantially reduced in UK and BASF buyback is complete and Letter One is also resolved

HBR are correct to move to Global investment .

The UK consultation process is just a PR stunt, there will be no skills left by 2030 which of course is the aim of this endless talk shop .

No consultation is required if Govt were serious , just bring in the Norway model . Today .

The Uni-party have destroyed the UK's Energy security .