Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
As previously
The Mexican Government and by extension Pemex cannot be Trusted unfortunately , the 50% ownership and operator control was an example of Govt interference . Pemex has zero money , so will be quite happy along with Mexican govt for Talos , Hbr and DS to finance project . Thereafter either Nationalising or Taxing as per UK .
Happy with delay and HBR now need to innovate a Mexican deal , that substantially reduces risk of capex and negates a NS style 75% tax grab .
Sell the fields to Slim let him provide capex with Pemex .
Put the money into South Asia or Norway .
Why give the market any news that may increase your Share price , if you are on a Buyback strategy ?
With this Shareprice the opportunity exists in 2024 to snap up 70m shares pre end March 2024 and a further 100m by year end .
Aim for average of £2.50 for 170m shares +- $500 m at these prices money well spent .
HBR are not paying Debt down in 2024 as zero Debt and with $100m from Vietnam sale , suck the oxygen out of the excess shares .
With 600m shares year end , the Divi for 2025 remaining at $200m will generate around 28p per share .
All while we wait for Indonesia to kick on .
I would say Lucky that the Self - sufficient argument for Energy was driven home by Covid where due to everything being now manufactured in the East an Emergency exposed the World to a Supply reality. Super profits were made .
Another example is Germany and its self destruction on Energy , where again unlike the French they did not keep or develop their own Energy .
Should Another Crisis happen the UK needs to be self-sufficient in Energy , Food , Medicine , Communications and Security or have the capacity to turn these on as required .
North Sea investment off the table for HBR , until the colours of the new Government are known .
Cannot believe the Stupidity of not being Energy self sufficient and the Security , Job and Financial self Destruction being pushed on the Great unwashed .
Continue Buybacks in 2024 as most efficient way of increasing Divi to Shareholders .
So far 156m shares at £3.14 per share so lets continue to reach optimum of 500m .
Try for last time .
HBR sell Mexico to Slim and crack on with Indonesia
Keep getting Silenced
Hopeful this next couple of weeks provide news on the following .
Update on completed drills Q3 . production 190k . improved Hedges .
Hbr announce another $200m buyback . Use Vietnam money
500m shares by end 2025 ideal , with zero interest on Debt and no buybacks in 2026, $300m divi realistic .
Hbr speed up Asia expansion Andaman , Natuna ect to 2026 production .
Sell Mexican interests as no stability for investment
2023 Tax year did not need an Acquisition , 2024 yes at the right price, buy outside the UK . Norway ?
Government Financial commitment to Acorn for ROI calculations .
UK government either 180 degree change on UK NS investment regime to encourage energy security , or go fully green and face the consequences 2024 election . UK Energy is cleaner and provides jobs thereby Tax revenue .
UK needs cheaper Energy for Industry and the man in the street .
HBR 2026 onwards Model based on Zero debt with strong cash flow . A 'New Model ' for Accountants and Investors .
That is the future for Harbour , no third party pulling the strings and a Pay as You Go methodology which differs from the old school of some debt is good .
Allows our Buybacks to continue at great pricing .
Agree with Mike 770m at end of period and hope another buyback plan to target - 700m year end .
End of 2025 500m Shares in issue i believe would be optimal .
North Sea fiasco should be clearer by then .
Boa ( how apt ) driven by Blackrock and Vanguard will be trying to stuff O&G companies until the fluidity of excess shares is stifled by buybacks . While they have shares in most Global top 500 companies, they have heavily weighted investments in Green Projects . Larry has O&G in his sights hold tight .
Unfortunately Pemex Mexico has not got the finance to kick start Zama which as stated previously maybe a blessing as the Mexican Government cannot be trusted .
If HBR are to go ahead in Mexico go with DEA and develop Kan independently of Pemex .
Mexico is High risk compared to Andaman , Vietnam ect , we can sit and wait for Pemex , Talos and DEA to make the running and limit our exposure as this could be another Venezuela .
Global politics are critical to the HBR business model .
Calculate another 18% in Smaller holders eg Helmsley Trust at 3.3%
So the 80/20 principle i believe with 20% small Pi's .
Significance is that a Talos Deal with Blackrock and Vanguard as significant holders could be waved through and i do not believe this to be in the Best interests of PI's .
As previously stated Drain the excess shares through Buybacks down to max 500m , accelerate to 1m per day and push Indonesia and Norway developement .
No good news is good for Buyback price IMHO .
Any Idea of PI % ?
EIG Shares 134 m % 16.75
BOA Shares 89 m % 11.11.
Merill Lynch 88m %10.9 .
Noble Group 80m % 10.0
GIC 62M % 8.0
JP Morgan 40m % 5.0.
Agree with around 770m shares when this Buyback Tranche is complete .
For Balance of 2023 with low share price being manipulated , fund 1m shares per day buyback below £3 per share .
Aim for a max of 700m shares in issue end 2023 with goal to be at 500m by end 2025 latest .
HBR should be signing Globally enforceable deals with Indonesia , Vietnam ect and selling up in Mexico as another Banana Republic in the making .
Looking at the numbers i believe Dividends are safe and growing with Buybacks . Year end probably similar to 2023 .
Conservative Government could leave a poison chalice for Labour by agreeing a Holistic 25 year plan with Industry . A plan that delivers , Net Zero by 2050 , UK energy self sufficiency , cheaper energy for citizens and Industry and starts most importantly within the next year . Lower pricing from 2024 - 2050 .......not starting in 2050 !
The above will also include legally binding agreements that support Energy Investment till 2050 .
A plan that sets out the timeframe , reasoning and delivery for all the above would be a challenge for Labour to throw out without a sound alternative .
The Public would hopefully demand answers to a change in the Agreed Strategy .
I think Clive Moffatt could be a sound resource for the Project if the Tories have the Backbone .
Zama and Kan are Honey Traps , all that will happen is Dea , Talos and HBR ,will plough expertise and Capex in and as soon as production is stable , Mexico will follow UK and place a Wealth Tax on all profits .
HBR should monetise fields to Carlos Slim pre any further expense .
Good move in Indonesia , maybe swap Russian share in Natuna for our Mexican Ops . Also a further reason not to touch Talos as also heavily involved in Mexico .
With 500m shares MAX in issue end 2025 latest , without needing any further buybacks the $300m saving can be released into the Divi pool . This will top up the $200m already projected annual Divi to $500m , $1 per share possible in 2026 ( Jam Tomorrow ) pretty much the BAT strategy used for unpopular products .
Also adding to the excess cash are huge savings on Interest payments from having little Debt . HBR 5 year loan also expires 2025 .
Not forgetting the above can be delivered while capex of $1.0b can be utilised in East Asia for profitable growth .Maybe a Singapore listing would be more supportive than UK or US .
With Neptune sold for $4.9B , 135K boepd net Debt $1.6b and 2P reserves of 552m boe
Value of Talos production 67k boepd net Debt $1.0b and 2P reserves of 190m .
Maximum value $2.0 B and buy not merge .
Should create duel listing opportunity and tax advantages .
At these prices Buybacks should be increased to 1m shares per day .
Yes so far Shareholders have gained very little from Buybacks and having lost heavily on PMO , Trust is in short supply . Having few alternatives HBR need to reduce shares to 500m and crack on with East Asia development .
The Tories are following WEF guidelines and killing O&G UK self sufficiency , at the average persons expense .
Labour will be even worse .
With both Tories and Labour incapable of producing a viable 5 10 or 15 year Viable Energy Plan that Delivers competitive predictable pricing for Industry , consumers and predictability for Investors like HBR , the UK is committing Economic suicide .
Reading the mood music Labour are now flip flopping on O&G Jobs and Strategy after union pressure and the realisation that many voters are not on board with net zero costs ect .
The spineless Tories will not rock the Boat pre -election , although both parties have now registered that they have effectively killed NS new investment through WT .
The solution for the country is a cross party 20 year Legally binding NS Investment Strategy that encompasses Investment , Taxation and Carbon Capture ROI , a holistic plan .
The above is Pivotal to UK Security , Industrial growth , cost of living crisis , Jobs and paying down Debt .
Rosebank is now front and centre . This Development/non Development is the Key and the next few months are going to be very interesting .
Just a Thought .
Agreed Sunak has his Green card and Hunt looking for one .
On HBR Strategy , Developing Asia this should be first priority as Malaysia , Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore will become new Eastern Tigers not forgetting India . We need to move faster on this front .
Mexico is corrupt and high risk would have preferred FI although can always return to FI when/if appropriate .
Getting shares in Issue to 500m by end 2025 (if still UK listed ) is a sound goal , after which with no buybacks required post 2025, a $500m annual dividend is possible .