Member Info for Goldenbadger1

While awaiting August results there are 2 issues i would like to see Harbour improve on namely :

Oil Hedging prices have been disappointing historically .

Buyback timing has also missed the boat previously .

Otherwise confident Linda will protect Shareholders from cheap Takeovers .

Looking at a fcf for 26,27 and 28 of around $5.0b , with a small Tailwind .

Debt should be around $5.0b net at end of 26 .

From 27 onwards i would view $1.0b per year Debt reduction , so Debt free by 31 . (If we don't buy Talos .)

Shares in circulation would expect at least 250m bought and cancelled in 26 , thereafter a 100m pa reduction minimum pa , with Letter One situation cleaned up . Target below 1.0 b shares by 2029 .

HBR options , due to events , are possibly 2 years ahead of forecast , a nice problem for Linda to have .

How does this fcf Windfall get allocated ? Buybacks from BASF hopefully are underway as many have suggested .

just off the *** packet for 2026

debt down to $5.3 b

buybacks $600m

dividend $300m .

a year of debt reduction setting up 2027 for a 60% divi ratio .

as stated between 45%- 75% divi possible .

September Divi 6p as per stated $300 m divi forecast for 2026 .

Outside FTSE 100 : not a problem if HBR are planning to buy and cancel $600m shares by end of year .

Wondering if HBR can only buy BASF shares at £3.60 as per agreement .Or Strategy for HBR is to take out shares and cancel in day to day trading from July 2026 as present pricing significantly lower .

HBR would be stupid to sell out or merge they have 'The Man from Hess ' that's the direction of travel required . We are at the beginning of a very profitable journey and protecting HBR from any takeover should be high on the Agenda .

USA listing 2027 .

BASF share buyout 2026/27 .

As much as HBR would like a quick finalisation of the Deal , i see HMRC are carefully considering next steps .

Lets hope they do not find a way of slow walking the process .

Will be an interesting week as HBR battle HMRC in court regarding Waldorf deal .

Also this week should hopefully see a Buyback kitty of $300m

Debt down to $6.2

Production at 510k boe

All inclusive Revenue per barrel around $85 .

Pensions are not a benefit in technical terms they are ROI , a return on investment paid in over many years . They should not be viewed as a benefit IMHO .

A well deserved reward for years of work and contributions .

This fact needs for clarity , to be separated from Benefits discussions and Govt reporting .

Interesting to note , no mention of Development of HBR fields in Andaman Sea in latest Investor presentation . Is this up for Sale ? ......or are HBR awaiting a supportive Government .

Will need to compete for ROI v Argentina and GOA which put a clear investment marker down .

Would not want any sale , as this could and should be a very good cash machine for holders ,now the difficult high Debt 2026 has been sorted .

HBR Strategy should be :

Debt down to $5b by end 2026 with present peak pricing .

Consolidate new business into company .

2028 Argentina up and running aswell as Zama .

2028 year end Buyout Basf shares and consolidate to 800m shares with USA listing .

Windfall Tax will end 2029 with a new financially literate Government .

2029 get the Andaman operation up and producing .

Interesting points on Buybacks v Debt Reduction v Dividends .

My take is Taxation is the driver on the different Strategies . Where at certain times one or the other could positively impact the bottom line and with HBR Global expansion , this is ever changing .

From a Shareholder perspective i'm not concerned with the Debt .

The WFT policy as many understood , was never about Tax income and always about Ideology . This is a war on British people and British business there is no other logic to follow . Highest Energy costs in the West costing jobs and UK security .

A Disgrace .

Hugo Duncan Article if missed .

OBR Forecast for 2025 -2026 WF income £6.0b

OBR Revised forecast £2.4b

3 year Original Projected income £15.6b

OBR Revised forecast £5.7b

The Golden GOOSE is well and truly plucked .

3 Reasons why Hess was valued at 10 times that of HBR .

After Tax profit $2.8 b 2024 . HBR $-100 M .

Shares in Issue Hess 308m . HBR +1.600 b inc Letter One .

Hess listed in USA .

Woodside would be similar share price if it did not have 1.900 b shares in issue .

Very Difficult to predict the future of HBR Share price as the unknowns could arrive at anytime :

America listing

BASF share buyout

UK Windfall tax change ( due to latest poor treasury returns )

Black Swan event driving oil to + $80 boe which would completely change Debt picture .

A Hostile takeover .

Positive for future although Crystal Ball in Storage .

Have a Wonderful 2026 .

HBR get well below global gas pricing from all non Euro zone fields , which is why Argentina and Egypt are a focus area going forward . LNG exports will be critical from these countries when on stream 2027 . Mexico is still high risk and that is why negotiations are dragging on . imho

HBR Production in 2025 365 x 473 boekpd = 172m boe / $10.0 B Rev = $57 boe +-

The biggest drag on the share this year and 2026 , is the $3.3 B tax paid on Revenue of approximately $10 B . This has been recognised by HBR and from 2027 we should see a much improved position .

2026 Will be Challenging unless anyone or multiples of these Elements transpire .

Oil and Gas prices ave $75 boe for HBR , for 2025 around $57 .

BASF shares are bought out and cancelled .

North Sea WF is positively adjusted to encourage investment in 2026 .

Labour has , i would say 3 support bases , Unions , Greens and a Liberal Elite .

The party is now being split with a Strong pure Green party and a focussed Unionised Worker party (Your Party ) . My thinking is that Reeves having lost the Greens will attempt to placate the Unite Union and drop the WFT from April 2026 . Labour need jobs , growth and Union support and now DT and Gates are supportive/neutral , hopefully common sense prevails .

The proposal from UKO&G was an Excellent move , financially quantifying the value of a Positive North Sea Govt position . Failure to reconsider WFT will paint Labour into a Greater Financial and Electoral negative spiral .