Member Info for Glengarth

Extract from another poster on Hot copper:

Chinas graphite flake producers inventory decreased 80.22% YoY in Oct - In Sept it was 76.77% YoY - Every year they madly increase their inventory's in Sept-Oct-Nov for when they close down over xmas and the new year.

Demand is going through the roof, their mined output is dramatically dropping, so they are desperately trying to meet demand by burning up their inventory's and what little imports they get because of the shipping crisis. They have also cut their synthetic output because of power shortages.

The above adds to reasons why anode production must spread beyond the borders of China and why flake production and processing must as well. 2021 has seen several companies begin to expand their activities and promise of new anode material facilities in Europe and the US.

Referring to the below post, given the macro situation what the poster suggests is very unlikely in my opinion. The family wants a current high level of ownership as they are very confident in the company's prospects given the macro picture. The company will have to use the liquidity of the markets to expand at the necessary pace to retain a global leadership position which will mean inevitable dilution of the family's stake - if you know this then obviously you want to start with a high % ownership.

Time will tell and research will lead to sensible conclusions imo (public listed mid-cap in a few years imo). Good luck all.

Agreed Macmac, and you're not the only one averaging down and continuing to build their position - re: social media, I think it's a case of just keeping the activities of the company out there to build engagement and awareness. It baffles me that investors care so much about the frequent automated/summary twitter posts when that's what social media is for - to inform and build engagement with the company. I'd rather they put material out there which catches the eye of prospective new investors and encourages them to do more research or reminds current investors of TGR's achievements to date than the company not saying anything or producing zero content online. They can't release new information on twitter before they use the official regulatory channels....

Of course what really matters and what investors should pay attention to is the RNS feed which should not be used lightly by the company and only for significant or price sensitive news and developments.

Hi DRJJ,

Would concur with your twitter investor's summary - is that Alkingston's writing? He/She is pretty on it from what i've seen.

I think the fall from 158p is less to do with red flags/negatives and more to do with inherent value and risk management as well as market dynamics since June.

At 158p the company was valued at c.£136m with 86m shares in issue. As according to your writing with the number of shares indicated to rise because of the value-accretive transactions to c.106m shares then at 158p this would have given a value of £167m. I think it is hard to value a company in this space at that level given the stage it's at, especially back in June given the company's financial figures for the year ended March 2021. The next figures are likely to be another big step up as the last ones were but I think the drop from the mighty heights of 158p is reasonable.
Having said that the company has had literally only good news since June and the fundamentals continue to improve as does the macro-outlook for Graphite with multiple end-industries such as fire controls and EV Li-ion batteries continuing to grow. So while the drop possibly reflect the short term nature of impatient investors (fair enough if you're trying to get rich quick or trading and a crypto coin is more to your taste) I also agree with your twitter investor that next year will be transformative for TGR and for the share price to reflect that as it transitions from an early-stage small scale producer to a significant primary and downstream producer, and one of the very few genuinely ex-China operating globally vertically-integrated graphite & graphene companies available for investors to invest their money in. Hence I am also in accumulation mode, buying this and other new-world green economy companies while they're cheap.

Good luck all

Massive jump in prices across the basket this week:

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1461459872424374274?s=20

Great time for TGR to be expanding its production of primary flake graphite concentrate to 30,000tpa in Q1/Q2 2022 and for its downstream project which includes specialist expandable and spherical graphite products due for completion in H2 2022.

Hi LinViews,

Yes products used to re t ar d flame are those such as ones that will be needed to re-clad many buildings in the UK following the Grenfell tragedy - there is the Building Safety Bill currently progressing through the relevant stages adding on the Fire Safety Act 2021.
Upon listing, the Company announced trial orders with the Indian railways for its products following legislation there which followed a similar fiery tragedy. It would be good to hear more about the state of the trial and relationship between the company and Indian railways with any further orders in mind.

https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3021

GLA

good to see what looks like early start up of cashew processing equipment for commissioning

https://twitter.com/DekelAgriVision/status/1461294680918962179?s=20

agreed, but all in good time - like shareitup says this is the closest SAV has come to realising the fruits of an arduous journey.

Hi Croq,

Agreed with your last post about the how much more TGR has done to date compared to many other companies at a similar point in their genesis, well put.

Also agree with your point below, though I feel this has been discussed already re funding. A certainty the company will look to fund its further expansions some point next year - the composition of the funding may be interesting depending on which part of the business receives the largest emphasis for expansion. As the company grows and develops its revenue streams - ideally to a net profit position by end of next year (22-23) i'm hoping for, it may be well placed to use debt as well. As a debt free company with serious revenues and hopefully profit in the relative near term this will strengthen co's bargaining power.

Ideally ofc the company realises a much higher sp before the end of next year, which it looks likely to do given the news in the pipeline re Moz, TSG, Madagascar, composite, graphene production/TGMRC etc.

taken some this week following the placing which was correctly called as impending - looking for a short-term trade over several months now as work progresses - unless concrete news seriously propels this beyond just 'conversations'...graphite space continues to heat up.

very hard to comment on and depends on the type of machinery/tech used by any possible end user of the graphite concentrate produced...currently i'd say it's of negligible potential as ACP will be looking to sell its graphite to major industrial players in batches much larger than those currently required at your average graphene company

Also note the recent GM which has now meant everything is arranged to complete the process

OAPK20, repeating my post from last week think it has your answer:

Had a quick look through the admission doc and found what I was looking for explaining what I tried very badly to in my last posts - page 245-246:

On 10 October 2018, the Company entered into a conditional agreement for the acquisition of 100% of the equity shares of TSG from the Concert Party, excluding TCCPL. The consideration for the acquisition was £2,000,000, which was agreed to be satisfied by the issue of 10,000,000 Ordinary Shares at an issue price of £0.20 per share. The completion of the acquisition is expected after Admission as it is subject to regulatory approvals as further described below.
Capital account transactions are regulated in India and under FEMA, RBI is the regulator.
An investment made from outside of India is defined as Overseas Direct Investment (“ODI”). The Company is considered to be an ODI under FEMA. For that purpose and because the acquisition constitutes a share swap, the prior approval of RBI must be obtained in relation to the transaction.
All transactions under FEMA that are required to be reported to, or approvals sought from, RBI must be made through “Authorised Dealers” of Foreign Exchange under FEMA. TSG's banker, Yes Bank, is considered to be the Authorised Dealer.
Having consulted its legal counsel and the Authorised Dealer, it has been determined that the transaction is of an unusual nature from a FEMA perspective and to ensure success in securing RBI's approval, the Company and TSG must establish:
- Bona fide purpose. The two clinching factors are integration and capital for development.
- There is ‘no round tripping’ (i.e. the flow of Foreign Exchange from India as an ODI and return of the funds back to India as Foreign Direct Investment).
- The Company is a “foreign” entity and is well regulated, which will be best demonstrated on Admission.
It has therefore been determined that the application to RBI for approval of the acquisition should be made upon achieving the following conditions:
245
- The Company has sufficient funds to deploy as investment in TSG and has access to further capital for further development. - - Following Admission and the Placing, the Company will be in a position to satisfy this condition.
Following the Placing, the list of Placees will establish that the funds available to the Company are not investments having flown out from India, and therefore there is no round tripping.
- Admission, while not a condition under the FEMA regulations, further demonstrates that the Company is an regulated entity and the approval shall pave the way for a progressive FDI into India.
The Company anticipates that the application for approval will be filed with the RBI within 4 weeks from Admission and that approval will be granted within 10 weeks.
Ends

...at the end of October.

Last post from me as must go, cheers for the discussion.

Hi BBB,

Had a quick look through the admission doc and found what I was looking for explaining what I tried very badly to in my last posts - page 245-246:

On 10 October 2018, the Company entered into a conditional agreement for the acquisition of 100% of the equity shares of TSG from the Concert Party, excluding TCCPL. The consideration for the acquisition was £2,000,000, which was agreed to be satisfied by the issue of 10,000,000 Ordinary Shares at an issue price of £0.20 per share. The completion of the acquisition is expected after Admission as it is subject to regulatory approvals as further described below.
Capital account transactions are regulated in India and under FEMA, RBI is the regulator.
An investment made from outside of India is defined as Overseas Direct Investment (“ODI”). The Company is considered to be an ODI under FEMA. For that purpose and because the acquisition constitutes a share swap, the prior approval of RBI must be obtained in relation to the transaction.
All transactions under FEMA that are required to be reported to, or approvals sought from, RBI must be made through “Authorised Dealers” of Foreign Exchange under FEMA. TSG's banker, Yes Bank, is considered to be the Authorised Dealer.
Having consulted its legal counsel and the Authorised Dealer, it has been determined that the transaction is of an unusual nature from a FEMA perspective and to ensure success in securing RBI's approval, the Company and TSG must establish:
- Bona fide purpose. The two clinching factors are integration and capital for development.
- There is ‘no round tripping’ (i.e. the flow of Foreign Exchange from India as an ODI and return of the funds back to India as Foreign Direct Investment).
- The Company is a “foreign” entity and is well regulated, which will be best demonstrated on Admission.
It has therefore been determined that the application to RBI for approval of the acquisition should be made upon achieving the following conditions:
245
- The Company has sufficient funds to deploy as investment in TSG and has access to further capital for further development. - - Following Admission and the Placing, the Company will be in a position to satisfy this condition.
Following the Placing, the list of Placees will establish that the funds available to the Company are not investments having flown out from India, and therefore there is no round tripping.
- Admission, while not a condition under the FEMA regulations, further demonstrates that the Company is an regulated entity and the approval shall pave the way for a progressive FDI into India.
The Company anticipates that the application for approval will be filed with the RBI within 4 weeks from Admission and that approval will be granted within 10 weeks.
Ends

I hope from the above points the matter is made clearer, and actually I think might mean we can expect news early in the new year in relation to TSG, if not before following on from the GM that sorted this issue at

sorry for the long explanation, but that's how I see it and of course time will tell.

Big Bad Bob, what Spencer1471 says is true - it's weird but it's not untrue. I will try to find the bit of information explaining the Indian regulator concerns which are to do with something about proving the Indian company (TSG is incorporated in India) will not be subject to capital withdrawals abroad or something along those line). TGR was/is incorporated in the UK.

Hey BBB,

I understand your point but don't agree given the context. Firstly, TGR is not listed on AIM, it's on the Standard List of the FTSE.

The Poddars are founders. Shishir and his brother have been in graphite all of their lives. Puruvi, Shishir's daughter, studied advanced materials and engineering (or something along those lines) at Manchester and has been involved in graphite all of her life. Having developed the in-house tech and expertise themselves necessary to launch a global graphite and specialist/advanced materials company, in my opinion they can be forgiven for wanting to retain a large slice of ownership in return for their efforts when clearly they are confident of what they can achieve - this isn't like some exploration or idle lifestyle company that you do see on AIM/FTSE with management collecting warrants and salaries while doing F all. Look at the last year's worth of RNSs for proof.

The way I see it is the Madagascan operation was a separate company as it is all to do with primary mining and processing in one jurisdiction, Madagascar. The company to be acquired they also owned, TSG, is the specialty, downstream+graphene project company in another jurisdiction, India. It makes sense for those two companies to have been separate and it is due to be bought with shares, not cash, which was agreed at a time the value of the shares were much lower - I reckon this business unit will produce the best financial results for the company once it's all settled.
In simple terms, mentioned at the investor event: the delay with the Indian regulator approvals was apparently based on UK-Indian investing rules and because Shishir took part in buying in the IPO - hence he did not take part in the placing that followed a few months later. The recent arrangement agreed at the GM has meant the Indian regulator can now look to approve everything and get the transaction sorted.

Do you think that this ownership level will stay the same over the course of the next few years as the company will seek strategic partners who will take equity in the company in necessary placings and strategic investments as BAT Minerals has done at 103p? The 90p placing earlier in the year was at double the IPO price and enabled the company to fast-track its development plan....While they have a large stake, they still need to manage the company successfully for it to be worth anything. To be honest, and of course I may be proven wrong long term, but I get the sense that people are looking at the company with a short-term mindset rather thank thinking in the medium term for which the company has a well publicised plan, fair play for a better entry. If they achieve that plan + retain a similar level of ownership by then and the company is distributing returns then who cares - they will be vindicated and fully incentivised to keep the company growing. Like I said before I will remain confident unless anything changes and management fails to deliver on its

Skeletor - have a look at the full results for an idea of what the average price achieved between March 2020 and March 2021 was - $805/MT. However for the first two months of 2021, TGR reported the average sales price achieved for its graphite had risen to $855/MT out of Madagascar. Since then graphite prices across all flake sizes have moved up and Shishir, TGR's CEO, has said he reckons $950/MT could be seen in 2022.
The flake graphite aimed for production out of Mozambique will probably be at a price of around $500-$750/MT as it is a finer flake. It's worth researching Syrah Resources for this element as they produce the same kind of flake that TGR will from its neighbouring projects currently being acquired.
Spherical Graphite, which TGR will produce at its downstream project due to commission in H2 2022 currently has a price of around $2,700-2,900/MT.
As the market for graphite is opaque it's almost impossible to give a spot price for the material as each supplier has a different product based on flake size, distribution, purity. You normally need a subscription to see prices from the likes of Fastmarkets, Chinese Metall Bulletins, or Benchmark Minerals that are gathered from market sources like end users and suppliers. Fortunately, sometimes there are postings of recent prices that have been documented to support the notion that prices continue to rise, see links below for examples.

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1455121697766526986/photo/1

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1454508887118393355/photo/1

Hope this helps.

Thanks JB, good to hear from a like-minded contributor.

PaulCurtis, You're right about the website it's got, quite frankly, a very shoddy feel about it and is hugely out of date now. I've spoken to the company and they say they are in the process of updating it. I think there is an issue of when to release the updated site because of near term news like the next module in Mad being commissioned early next year, the upcoming news on the Moz transactions, and also the impending results of the drilling and exploration campaign. I guess updating the site is relatively costly and the company doesn't want to waste cash on an website design consultant to do multiple updates when an infrequent but big update can be done in one go possibly....

There was a very large Investor event at the end of last month where many got to meet the board/management for the first time face to face and talk to initial early stage investors. The company does need to work on its online presence other than social media if it is to interest the Americans that's for sure...different culture there and potentially more serious would-be investors to impress etc.

I agree that there is nothing to do with supply chain issues directly effecting the price...these to date only slightly delayed the timetable for the commissioning of Vatomina as some plant and machinery took longer to deliver.

For those who invested on hype, was it a) the hype of the UK's first listed producing graphite company that also has a downstream, fully integrated operation under construction or was it b) the Al-Gr composite, or c) both that interested you? if it was any of them then fair enough but it's only been about 9 months - these things take time and the company is demonstrably working towards its goals as shown by progress, RNSs and agreements to date, unless anyone can show that they aren't? Some here seem like they made less of an investment and instead thought of TGR as a get rich quick opportunity (for the record I think the growth here will be greater and faster than many alternatives out there!)

Either way I continue to hold and will do the same as others an average down when the trend changes in our favour, unless I see any activity which I think is not in the company's best interests or failures to deliver.

Indeed, good to hear more good news from what will be one of 2 of our essential sources of flake graphite for our downstream projects.

Short term SP action, although frustrating, is a distraction imo as the share settles after a bumper IPO year and while the company is in the process of completing large and necessary transactions and the company knuckles down into its expansion plans. We'll see the first fruit of this labour in the next interim results probably of higher production and higher sales price which will help others make their own forecasts. The company has proven proof of concept operationally and now needs to prove it is capable of being a globally significant producer of primary and downstream graphite products following the first major expansion and downstream project construction.