Member Info for Glengarth

2 massive deals announced for ASX listed entities SYR and BKT last night:

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1473769885394251782?s=20

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1473793518116257804?s=20

The importance and profile of graphite is coming to be recognised - all current battery chemistries require a graphite anode and graphite makes up the largest single component in an Li-ion battery. Current graphite supply is primarily for industrial markets. This capacity alone has to more than triple to serve the growing EV battery sector, and TGR has primary resources able to supply all applications of Graphite (also an advantage as provides exposure to multiple growing sectors imo).

TGR is one of the only listed (can probably count on 1 hand) companies in the world currently scheduled to be producing spherical graphite by the end of 2022 at any reasonable scale at 3,000tpa if the plan according to the 1st of the downstream modules is adhered to - but I suspect this will grow rapidly should the company receive further demand and qualifies its product with end users and OEMs. It should not be forgotten that Graphite is also needed in the massive Stationary Storage Batteries being built around the world

TGR is the only UK listed company vertically integrated throughout the graphite and graphene supply chain able to directly serve the requirements of the global anode market for EV Li-ion batteries - there is no other UK listed competition on this front yet as far as i'm aware. The dual listing in the US is a precursor for what's to come imo by opening an avenue for a broader set of investors to come onboard. Like Syrah, TGR may be capable of building a dedicated anode material project in the US or EU (or Japan, thinking about the Hanwa connection, or a combination of those jurisdictions, on top of the Indian projects). With much news coming up in 2022 and recent developments, and having seen how TGR likes to quickly adapt and react with the demands of the market, it may only be a matter of time before we have a significant update outlining the plans for the company beyond the current Medium Term Development Plan (MTDP).

Good luck all

Tesla has just signed a binding offtake with Syrah Resources, another producer in Mozambique, world's largest ex-China graphite mine right next to the assets TGR is acquiring, for 10ktpa and beyond of active anode material. Bodes very well for TGR's plans imo!

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1473769885394251782?s=20

GLA - graphite's time and importance for EVs is slowly but surely being recognised - TGR is one of the very few ex-China early movers that will be producing spherical graphite anode material by the end of 2022

Huge opportunities ahead for early movers like TGR presented more and more as the weeks go by as battery manufacturing facilities continue to spread outside of China in target markets - it pays to be developing downstream and specialty projects alongside the primary projects, which 2022/23 will make apparent imo (many out there with plans but are yet to deliver much concrete)- establishing market share and economies of scale earlier than many will bode well if the TGR management continue to execute their plan as they have successfully to date imo.

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1473659142883713029?s=20

Always enjoy your musings as a large holder SI - think you could be right - the holiday discounts are being bought out sharpish, store might run out of discounted stock!

Fundamentals continue to improve - have a read of the RNS feed if doing research to see how the company has delivered to date - and 2022 will start off with some great newsflow over the first several months imo on several different activities.

Mosquito -

Re Mozambique - it can be a tricky jurisdiction - the importance of the social investment of the ESG equation cannot be underestimated as a lot of unrest last year around huge LNG operations by Total were put on hold following an insurgency. TGR is well known for bringing up the standards of living for its employees and communities around it in Madagascar, and from the news i've seen recently the insurgency has pretty much been reduced from what it was to the extent that Total had resumed its operations after a major effort by the surrounding nation forces such as SA and Rwanda sending peace-keeping troops. Indeed the largest graphite producer outside of China, Syrah Resources ($SYR) operates its huge Balama project uninterrupted by any of the disruption - its project is right next door to the assets TGR is acquiring from Battery Minerals - excellent positioning for infrastructure and experienced workforce.

Re Madagascar - indeed a sad state of affairs that people have suffered. However, TGR's operations are in the North of Madagascar and the port it uses is in the North. The Southern Famine has also not effected operations in the South by the likes of Rio Tinto and NextSource Resources (another graphite player) detrimentally. Further investment by all companies and the government in infrastructure and projects will improve the livelihoods and standards of living for all as TGR has done for those around Vatomina and Sahamamy.

Another thing important to note is that other companies which are only just beginning to build their first modules or proof of concept plants won't straight away being the construction of their next modules - they will do further studies and it will take time before they are used to operating their plants before they are in a position to convince financiers of their viability.

TGR's downstream projects present it with a massive strategic opportunity now that these are growing at the same time as their primary flake extraction projects are also expanding imo.

DrJ and Reggie,

Fully agree with both of you - in my comparisons with other would-be players in the graphite space TGR is up there in probably the top 3 in terms of delivery and achievements to date and has been overlooked.

Not sure if this is because of the London market or a lack of rampy marketing which you get on other markets like ASX and TSX. Certainly, however, I cannot wait for TGR to update its website to demonstrate what it's achieved - it currently is miles out of date and actually felt dated/old even when the company listed this time last year - a more modern looking website is definitely needed to help prospective investors do their research as this is the most likely port of call for them rather than just reading the RNS feed.

One thing to note of TGR is that because of its competitive nature and modular structure it has not published its detailed studies in order to keep industrial competition from knowing what its up to. There's a massive expandable graphite market growing and TGR is wise imo to keep its strategy secret. But, the proof is in the pudding; by reading the RNS's and recent results, forecasts and by listening to the interviews investors can see the company has delivered massively and its strategy is working:

Primary flake production will have risen 10x from 3,000tpa to 30,000tpa by H2 tpa in just over a year! (84ktpa by 2024)
Patalanga (serious money maker - recent results for 6 months alone revenue was over £1m at a capacity of 1,200tpa) production will also 4x from 1,200tpa to 4,800tpa - it would be v interesting to hear more on the status of certain contracts announced this time last year on the Indian railways for example.
Overall downstream capacity is aimed at 19,800tpa by the end of 2022 with the first major secondary downstream project module coming online + Patalanga.

That's all without the graphene possibilities thrown in but even on that we know production capacity is ramping up, as well as mineral processing consulting work taking place.

Comparing to many other peers in the graphite space - SYR has a mcap over over £300m, operating at about 150,00tpa out of 365,000tpa but is not even operationally profitable yet - also has a downstream project to make 10ktpa of spherical graphite in the US I believe, but another huge investment decision coming up for them soon...
There are others that have started building and have fixed offtakes such as BKT, as well as NextSource Materials, so it's understandable they've done well.

For me what's interesting is the likes of Talga, Nouveau Monde, Ecograf, Renacsor that all have huge plans with promises both on the primary and downstream sides, but are yet to deliver and command massive mcaps in comparison to TGR.

In my opinion if these others have a subdued 2022 and little materialises from them, then TGR will stand out massively and command an even greater mcap than originally hoped for as it will be a dominant force with a clear runway to cont

Been having a think about a possible location for a potential dedicated downstream anode material facility to produce spherical graphite. The US or the EU have been touted as likely options, by the broker in its note on 25th October, and would make sense given the massive growth for EVs and battery/gigafactories under construction there. But I wonder if a Japanese location under a partnership or strategic investment or offtake agreement with Hanwa, the global Japanese trading company that TGR has an MoU with, is also under consideration. The South Korean giant, POSCO, has been making non-binding offtake agreements with several ASX-listed graphite companies who are not even in production yet on the primary side let alone the downstream side, and Asia remains a growing hub for battery production which wanted to reduce dependence on China.

Just musings but interested to hear any and all thoughts. Going into a massive 2022 for TGR.

So in the space of a week it's been announced that Portugal will have at least 60,000tpa of battery grade hydroxide processing capacity built:

1. Australia’s Neometals said it had also agreed to build a 25,000 tonnes a year lithium hydroxide plant in Portugal in partnership with Portuguese chemical producer Bondalti Chemicals.
2. Northvolt and Galp's agreed €700 million lithium hydroxide plant in Portugal to produce 35,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide a year, which would be enough for around 700,000 electric vehicles.

Portugal will very soon be on the Lithium world stage - the importance of easy to extract, simple hard rock resources as at MdB and all over the Iberian peninsula l should not be underestimated imo and are currently overlooked with all the hype over South American producers and US-listed entities atm.

SAV has been brewing under the surface for a long time as many here know...getting close to EIA decision surely now. Pieces of the puzzle being put together one by one with the latest news from industry re Galp/Northvolt? Lithium extremely hot area for well known reasons, this could be quite something!

My theory is graphite demand will explode end of 2023 and surge into the late 2020s and early 2030s before stabilising as more expensive solid state batteries and heavily silicon dosed anodes begin to be used for the ultra luxury/high end vehicles.
So far it looks like chemistries involving graphite anodes will dominate the wide-spread mass market for the most consumed vehicles for ordinary people imo going forward imo.

Hi Jingle,
To add to SI’s reply, I’ve never heard of any meaningful deployment of ‘bio-graphite’. Certainly, synthetic (increasingly known as artificial graphite) and natural flake Graphite are the main two materials in play at the moment. I haven’t heard either TGR or the industry leading consultancy for the Li-ion supply chain, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, mention bio-graphite.
Looking forward to 2023-25 when all the gigafactories begin to finish construction and demand accelerates even further.

I was thinking along the same lines Basscadet, wonder how the market will react when the twice the size 18,000tpa module comes online at Sahamamy next year....

Agreed Theosus - the market has had its time to weigh on the various things happening globally and imo it tends to return favour to companies that are delivering on promises with a clear runway ahead where fundamentals go hand in hand with sentiment.

Hoping for a return to previous highs and beyond as the company's strength and profile continues to grow.

Great to see confirmation of commercial production at Vatomina, bringing capacity to 12,000tpa, and the performance of the plant beating expectations:

· Since its commissioning, Vatomina has been debottlenecked and its new facilities are now prepared for stable commercial operations.
· During the commissioning process, the plant has surpassed the target operational objectives, including:
o A recovery rate of over 90%, against the targeted 85%;
o A target product grade of up to 96%;
o A product basket consisting of over 70% Jumbo and large flakes, which sell at a premium to fine/small flakes.

The company is delivering extremely well and as pointed out in the RNS the next 18,000tpa module is on its way to bring capacity in Madagascar alone to 30,000tpa by middle of 2022. 3 more 18,000tpa plants are in the pipeline and as also pointed out in the RNS the company is able to benefit from the lessons learnt in the process of the modular build out, allowing it to keep costs low and grow in tandem with the market as demand continues to grow.

Very excited to see the next steps for Mozambique and the downstream projects - so much potential here (as well as the graphene business as well).

TGR has a growth mindset, an invested and experience board and management team and is delivering much more than other listed-graphite companies globally. If it can maintain this pace and succeed over the next couple of years as it has to date then its early-mover advantages will be fully locked in imo.

Good luck all

Unfortunately I don't see GROC doing much for a few years..yes an asset with some v good grades (but grades aren't everything otherwise Talga's resource in Sweden would be out of the ground and in production by now) but location, local resistance to mines and lack of processing facilities and management experience don't make the co. Greenland ideally suited, especially so close to a waterfront imo (difficult logistics). Some solid other UK graphite plays in order of preference TGR, ACP, BRES - last one also a v slow burner....which have better risk reward profiles imo. As always DYOR and good luck all.

Thanks for that SI - also looks like that note's target of 150p is only for the 20,000tpa of primary flake graphite production that the company envisages for March 2022- March 2023 which will be a roughly 20x of what has been produced in the 6 months to September 2021, not bad at all, and also doesn't take into account the figures from the downstream and Patalanga projects or graphene potential.
2022 is shaping up to be the most important year yet as the company begins to ramp large scale production on the way to becoming a globally significant supplier of graphite and being rewarded with a much a higher market cap in the future imo.

Exactly Basscadet - in the results the company states it expects profitability to be reached from the 12,000tpa operation. Obviously this should improve further at a 30,000tpa, 48,000tpa, 64,000tpa, 84,000tpa operation up to 2024 with profits reinvested to grow the company organically but also opens up significant debt funding.
This growth will be complemented by both Patalanga reaching 4,800tpa and the 15,000tpa downstream project coming online H2 2022.
The foundations for profit are being laid and the macro picture continues to strengthen as demand soars - news yesterday that Tesla is in desperate need of significant quantities of graphite that it's asking the US administration to reduce tariffs on Chinese Graphite imports so they can secure what they need - great time to be an expanding source of graphite outside of China that is not subject to trade war tariffs imo.

Oh and an updated website is hopefully in the works to better illustrate the future potential and quality here.

See a rather good thread, link below, on TGR that serves as nice explainer of where things could go in the short-medium term:

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1466366583828320258?s=20

Agree SI and Basscadet - these results confirm the beginning of the hockey stick curve is nearly upon us in terms of financial performance and the road to becoming a mid-cap.
Low costs, which the company sounds like they will be able to reduce even further with scale and hydropower supply for operations, great operating margins which also may improve with scale and reduced costs, and a runway ahead for massive production and sales growth out of Madagascar at a time when demand for product is only increasing and TGR is one of the only operators out there right now actually in production, sorting out teething issues and building experience and expertise in its personnel so that they know how to operate future expanded operations.

Great to see the news about Patalanga - I had also overlooked this was being expanded to 4,800tpa by in H2 2022 - I thought development had been paused. For total specialty and downstream graphite capacity to be at 19,800tpa by the end of 2022 is something the market is not alive to yet imo- that alone will probably be able to double the revenue received from the primary flake side to produce juicy revenue and profits to reinvest to further expand the company's operations.

Graphite is a difficult industry but the hires made over the last year and the modular build-out and market development activities looks to be progressing very well under the MTDP.

Looking forward news of:
commercial-level production out of Vatomina,
TSG consolidation,
further spherical graphite testing news,
an update on exploration (looks like solid progress is being made from the results announced today but it is a huge programme),
possible Al-Gr composite news,
hydropower in Madagascar news,
Mozambique transaction news,
expandable/fire control graphite news e.g. more Indian Railway contracts (quiet on this front so far)

---- and all of that is before the next string of news starts on commissioning of the next 18,000tpa module in Q2 2022, specialty downstream project of 15,000tpa in H2 2022, Patalanga upgrade to 4,800tpa H2 2022 as well as the publication of plans for Mozambique assets and potential anode material facility in US or EU (or India if Tesla decides to move in with a gigiafactory I guess ?) and eventual JORC upgrade for Madagascar. Probably missed out more but there's so much this company is doing and it's not hanging around to secure itself as one of the world's best one stop shop for graphite and a much higher future valuation imo.

Good luck all