Member Info for Glengarth

Hi ShearClass,

You're right to identify that fact and it is one of the things that highlight the intrepid nature of the company as an entrepreneur-led organisation imo. It built its 3,000tpa operation in house and commissioned operations in 2017/2018 to essentially be a proof of concept plant and operation and to get the ball rolling ahead of a lot of competition out there now coming out of the woodwork. Looking about you can see there are a lot of companies proclaiming to be the next best thing in the graphite space, but with no production, no revenue, no proof of concept and very high capex levels.

The SRK report details the initial plan in Madagascar which was only for 81,000tpa - this of course has been raised to 84,000tpa because of increased demand that meant the new module that commissioned in September at Vatomina was upscaled 50% from a 6,000tpa module to a 9,000tpa module brining current capacity to 12,000tpa. How many other companies do you know that can do that with in-house expertise? The success of the 3,000,tpa module led to the successful IPO and subsequent placing raising a total of £16m together to fund the further expansions according to TGR's plan that are due for completion next year as discussed previously in below comments.

From the admission doc "The Company has stated its intention to commission a multi-disciplinary Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for the projects. SRK notes that taking a staged approach would be better and that the Company should initiate with a minimum PFS level study...Mine scheduling adds maximum value to a mining project. To be able to undertake a robust production scheduling exercise it is paramount to have a resource model of higher confidence, preferably with the initial 5 years of Measured category and the following 5 years of Indicated category"....Following this i'd bring your attention to the sizeable Stage II Exploration & Drilling Programme that we are waiting for the results of earmarked as by the end of this year which will contribute to the advised studies:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TGR/start-of-stage-ii-exploration-drilling-programme-5vuhb1m13si1un7.html

So yes, like you say for the mining world it's unusual, but the company's strategy to date has given it a massive head start compared to others (apart from Syrah and the well-established Chinese producers) and the company is actively working to allay the concerns you raise. A 30,000tpa operation is globally significant and that's less than half the end goal in 2024 from Madagascar alone. Looking forward to seeing those exploration and drilling results and whatever other news appears before the new year!

link to the interview with the forecast $950/mt:

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-shishir-poddar-chairman-and-ceo-tirupati-graphite-de19a67/

Hi GettingBy,

I spend too much time with these tabs open but am one of the resident posters with a sizeable holding here so happy to answer your q's if I can.

Firstly, apologies I meant to use $ not £. The c.$30m revenue figure I based alone off a 30,000tpa operation in Madagascar over a 12 month period at full operating capacity. This was done using the average selling price in the accounts per MT provided for the year to the year ended 31st March 2021 of $801/MT (see 17th September and 24th August RNS) but taking into account the following from the 8th March 2021 RNS: Average monthly sales for the first two months of 2021 improved 63% at an average price of US$855 per metric tonnes ('MT'). So back then the sale price/per MT had risen to $855/MT and it is widely reported that prices have continued to rise, per the price assessments in the below link:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1454508887118393355/photo/1

This has been as industry activity has picked up and demand has supposedly increased.

TGR's CEO, Shishir Poddar has commented in a recent interview, link also below, that he believes in the next year we will see an average basket price of $950/MT achieved for the Madagascan output, which may be possible owing to the increases we are already seeing and which under a 30,000tpa operation would equate to around $28.5m in revenue. Applying the same operating margins achieved per the latest financial results of 57% - though this could improve with the scale of production being 10x the 3,000tpa operation the latest figures are based off, and there would be a gross profit of c.$16.25m, and hopefully a decent net figure for reinvestment for further expansion.

Of course there will be variation based off actual sales and actual achieved prices. And over time my hope is that with each expansion comes further financial firepower to put back into the business for the next 2-3 years. The downstream projects' financial assumptions are the juiciest imo. Hope this helps!

Capacity upgrade to 30,000tpa is due within H1 2022 - if it was as early as January that would be great, but I think it'll most likely be Q2 i.e. anytime April-June. That should begin to build a financial profile of a roughly £30m revenue...consider c.50%+ gross profit and margins at those levels and you get an idea of the goals of the company. TGR's plans doesn't end there remember - it's already laying the plans for the subsequent 18,000tpa module to build up to 48,000tpa and it's goal in Madagascar is 84,000tpa by 2024. Add in the specialty downstream project modules, and the Mozambique projects, and as I and ShareInvestment like to say, if management execute their strategy successfully, then TGR is headed to mid-cap status in the medium term imo. Throw in a potential specialised anode facility (purified spherical graphite) in the longer term in either the EU or US (or both????!) and you see why the vertically integrated, modular build out model is so effective. Any success with the Al-Gr composite and the doors will be nowhere to be found.

VRS has had its own challenges as an early entrant to the graphene industry...but if you read the comments made here it's been stated that VRS and TGR could not be more different...graphene is only 1 out of 3 business units of TGR and is by far the smallest currently.
I don't know much about the revenue and profit profile of VRS but for TGR in the last year alone revenue increased by 42% and gross profit by 66% (Revenues of £1,123,426 and Operating Profits of £635,342, representing 57% operating margins) - and that has been with only a 3,000tpa operation in a year that had historically low prices for graphite because of COVID. Capacity has multiplied by 4 to 12,000tpa since the September commissioning at Vatomina of the new module there, and will rise again by nearly another 3x to 30,000tpa in H1 2022 in a context of rising graphite prices. H2 2022 will see the 15,000tpa specialty project come online taking downstream to 16,2000tpa.......doing the maths of what these numbers represent for the financial profile of the company and seeing the market demand for graphite going through the roof gives a good indication where this will go, even without the graphene. Like LinViews says though, this isn't a quick buck company, and there's plenty of chasing going on out there atm.
Provided management continue to exercise their plan successfully as they have to date then happy days if you're an LT investor and this will eventually be reflected in the sp imo well above the previous spike to 158p.
Good luck all.

Of course, mine was not meant to be taken as a direct comparison between the two, apologies for any confusion. As VRS as a company has been in the graphene game for much, much longer than TGR that makes sense. Although the appointments this year of senior scientists in India I think bodes well - the Al-Gr composite breakthrough (something of a technological barrier broken) is a testament to TGR's innovation in the field imo.
But yes, atm it's like comparing apples and oranges - TGR is a graphite mining and a specialty graphite refiner/producer (high purity/expandable/spherical graphite) across nearly 3 jurisdictions - the graphene side like you say will take a while to bear fruit but at least we know they're working on it with international partners, just need an update on that front.

For TGR, graphene is a potential game changer but the dynamics of its 2 corse business units, primary and downstream graphite products, look like they stand to do the company very well imo on their own. The benefit I see of this compared to VRS is that TGR's revenue and profit profile will leap ahead because of those 2 business units and from those TGR will be able to direct greater resources in developing further advanced materials and expand across all 3 of their business units.

Enjoyed your post Bass lol

Just to add TGR's graphene is being tested both in-house and now at the Uni of Monash, Australia for several other uses. I think both VRS and TGR are in the process of increasing their respective graphene productive capacities. Certainly TGR's goal in the short-mid term is to establish production at 10kg/day....and I think they do try to sell their Graphene Oxide and Reduced Graphene Oxide as products in themselves to other graphene end-users if not already used for research/development purposes. TGR's website is beginning to need an update! Maybe they are waiting for the resource update in Madagascar and/or finalisation of the Moz asset transaction....

Would advise all to read the company’s recently released sustainability report, link below. Details how the company works to reduces its carbon footprint, its goal to become carbon neutral, it’s efforts to help raise the local population’s living standards along with it etc

https://tirupatigraphite.co.uk/images/Sustainability%20Report%2021.pdf

I was thinking a more conservative jump from £1.2 to around £3-4.5m just because of logistics issues and the time it will have taken to ramp up the new 9ktpa Vatomina module, but yes there will be large x factor jumps over the next few FYs...Can't wait to be able to include the figures from the downstream operations when all up and running.

SI and Mr , also agree - the progress to date is apparent for anyone bothering to read the RNS and understand what the production capacity increases will mean financially to the bottom line. Combining that with the the super-trend of EVs and greater fire control regulation globally and TGR looks very well placed.
Personally I sort of think it will take the next couple of sets of financial results to actually show to the less well researched the growth the company is going through and the speed with which it will hopefully continue to grow - provided of course the management executes and achieves higher production and sales. Just blows my mind TGR is valued so low as a current and expanding producer with its own in-house tech, also non-reliant on Chinese EPC contractors, compared to many peers without any production, financing or track record to speak of! Still an easy mid-long term hold for me if management keep delivering.

I think the 50 days from the 21st September RNS is technically next Tuesday, 9th November - which would coincide with the next production results nicely?

By all accounts the Investor Event went very well last night with attendance of representatives of several large institutions doing their DD and included an introductory speech by Geraint Jones of Premier Miton, one of the largest institutions on the share register currently.
According to sources who were present all is on track for the 30,000tpa capacity upgrade Q1/Q2 next year and the commission of the 15,000tpa specialty project in the second half of the year.
The company emphasised the benefits it has against peers by having in-house expertise allowing it to manufacture necessary equipment for all of its own plants with the proprietary tech that allows for lower opex costs and hence the high margins seen in Madagascar. It's hoped the same will be able to translate across to Mozambique when the company has finished its evaluation of the assets there.
Sounds like there may be news on multiple fronts in the next several weeks/few months such as second stage bulk trial results of the company's spherical graphite with the German partner and bulk samples of the composite being sent off to partners likes the FTSE100 company et al for application development testing. Hoping to hear more news on the fire/flame control products as well going forward.
Still unsure when exactly the resource upgrade from the exploration and drilling programme will be published but it's on the way.
Good luck all

Concern here could be a EUZ style fundraise...promising project but no concrete partners that we've been made aware of and a lot of work to go. Graphite demand is going to boom but will there be capacity demand for the huge Orom-Cross project before say 2025 in light of the other projects either operating and expanding or near construction/production such as Syrah, Renascor, Tirupati, Ecograf, Walkabout, Blackstone, Armadale and Nouveau Monde etc?

Yes SI it's a dynamic environment right now with various contenders wanting to retain market share - been seeing a lot of news suggesting that market share of the traditional autos will suffer MAJORLY in the face of the massive head start and expertise the likes of Tesla and the Chinese EV manufacturers have got for themselves.

I think the Investor event will be a good opportunity for investors. It will be a chance for investors who haven't met the TGR team before to gauge whether they think the company and management is the real deal. I'll never forget my first AGM - it was a great insight into the people running the show through their body language, tone and the way they answered questions and presented. You can see if someone means what they say in their eyes. Hopefully the live event tomorrow will build further confidence in TGR as more investors get this chance. Looking forward to hearing any feedback from those who go!

The bit that has enticed me the most and excited me the most from the note is mention of a possible future “dedicated downstream anode material facility” (I wonder at what scale such a first facility would be considered) to serve LiB markets in the US or Europe...this could be genuinely transformative imo. TGR has the resources in the form of the huge Mozambique assets to supply such a facility (and other external buyers ofc) and production of anode material/coated spherical graphite at scale would launch TGR into the realm of genuine advance material/chemicals company rather than being viewed/valued as a highly efficient miner of primary and processor of flake graphite....
If this company continues to build on its solid foundations in the Madagascan operations and achieves it 30,000tpa production capacity come Q1/Q2 2022 followed by a further uplift to 48,000tpa in Q4 2022 or Q1/Q2 2023 to serve the flame/thermal control and expandable markets, as well as commencing operations at its first 15,000tpa (plus the 1,200tpa at patalanga) specialty project, and we get movement on the Mozambique assets, then the future potential financial profile of the company may become apparent to many investors very suddenly towards the end of 2022 imo.
Then of course there's the graphene-aluminium composite potential that may arise at any time.
TGR is certainly a company driving hard to achieve some very big plans to fulfil its vision. Certainly, its mission is aligning nicely with several super-trends.

Well they sound confident in that article - will be some years before we see much concrete by way of actual industry impact.

It's encouraging that it is an Australian organisation - TGR's recent deal is with Monash university for several strands of research into Graphene enabled products so will be interesting to see what comes out of some healthy Australian rivalry.

All quiet in the run up to the AGM and GM and Live Investor Event this week. For anyone going it may be interesting to make a note of which individuals are present and try to work out if there are any representatives of organisations/institutions.

Hoping we hear some updates on on Madagascar's resource upgrade soon - certainly it looks likes the prices of Flake graphite have been increasing so to hear about higher production and sales from the Madagascar modules would be great.
Further to that any news forthcoming about the Moz asset acquisition and Moz government approvals/expected timelines would be good.

Looking forward to the completion of the TSG acquisition - having the specialty project, TGMRC and the primary Madagascar and Mozambique operations all under one banner will cement the vertically integrated model - building on the expandable and spherical graphite products will afford TGR a much loftier valuation as it will truly be plugged into the EV and electrification revolution, especially as an in-house, ex-China source for anode material.

Ganfeng spending more today…get this EIA sorted and SAV will be the EU’s first, easily extractable, largest spodumene project in operation - all those gigafactories being built will need to source from somewhere and it will be a competitive process. Another day closer!

Agree SI you’re right - there’s too much the company is doing to fit in one article!

Weird that the article didn't mention the downstream specialty project...spherical graphite especially but industrial and commercial thermal control and flame control products as well have a chance to outstrip revenue and profits of the primary side in a few years in my opinion.
Look at the likes of Renascor and Syrah each trying to develop their own downstream operation and promising the benefits of the vertical integration model which TGR has set out to achieve and is in the process of building. Once the project is up and running there may be serious qualification the product go through before resulting in supply agreements and further plants imo...just like at Renascor's non-binding deal with POSCO - here is where I think Hanwa will play an major part.
Then of course the graphene side could be un-quantifiably successful if products achieve commercial development.

All gravy but this company has some serious legs imo - its mission aligns with several macro trends simultaneously and growth to date is beginning to reflect that.

also isn't a $75m capex not $50m that will be needed?...unless the next studies can improve the economics here it will be sometime before this gets going imo.....graphite is a very competitive area right now. Of course management could pull something out of the hat rather than referencing 'discussions' - find me a company which is not in 'discussions'....