Member Info for Glengarth

Hi all,

A welcome update today! Looking forward to the full audited results being published on or before 17th September per RNS.

Nicely laid out figures Cigam - very close to what I also had estimated pre these results - good to see some confirmation of figures for those who were unable to find things such as average basket sales price in today's announcement. Like you say and show, today's figures are likely to continue growing significantly with the new modules coming online in Madagascar, and will likely receive an even greater boost if and when Mozambique gets underway.

The flake graphite is all well and good and extremely important as the foundation for TGR. But, imo the real value, both commercially but also strategically, is in the production of spherical graphite ex-China - this is a massive growth area with the advent of EVs taking over from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE's) with spherical graphite going into the anode of Li-ion batteries and a massive geographical spread required to serve the nascent mainstream EV industry. Combined with flame/thermal controls and expandable graphite, by expanding these areas TGR will be exposing itself to a couple of high-value, high-margin, quickly growing global megatrends. Shishir certainly gives off the impression he's motivated to build a huge company and I feel like he knows exactly where he's going. My hunch is that as the 3,000tpa plant in Madagascar has been a sort of proof of concept project, the first specialty plant in India will be the same and will lead to further plants - perhaps just for either the expandable products or spherical graphite should the company receive indications for demand - hopefully that is where the likes of Hanwa come in to help build those relationships.

I'd expect the specialty projects, excluding the graphene business, at 31,200tpa to produce roughly the same, if not slightly higher revenue figures than the primary side at 84,000tpa based on much higher basket price figures. So by 2024 with Madagascar up to 84,000tpa and India operating at 31,200tpa hopefully then the figures begin to look very very interesting by your metrics.
That's not even including the potential out of the Mozambique assets (for which there looks to be at least 100,000tpa that could be brought online within several years, depending on demand of course, including the initial 50,000tpa at Montepuez that is likely to be aimed for first asap) and of course does not take into account the Graphene business and the Composite. The potential here is massive and hopefully Shishir and his team continue to hit their milestones successfully.

As lanky says the cash is being put to good use - latent growth and achieving scale is what's important in this sector and the company is probably only a year or two away from being able to self fund all of its desired development plans through profit reinvestment imo. Fingers crossed the company can continue its current trajectory!

Go

Spodumene prices going for it again in China, +27% - not even anywhere near peak demand yet from the nascent EV industry

https://twitter.com/hc_haplo/status/1429574394909577216?s=21

Welcome aboard PW71,

Latent growth is a wonderful thing - and TGR will grow rapidly once it’s next modules are built in Madagascar and India followed by a huge step up with the new acquisition project imo.
Hopefully the first contract and/or off take agreements aren’t too far off and we’ll hear something from Hanwa’s trading relationship soon as alluded to in the last RNS.
Vatomina commissioning must be due anytime now as Shishir also implied - it’s been delayed for a few weeks now. Results and the exploration and drilling programme outcomes to upgrade the Madagascar resource also due soon.

Can’t wait to hear more in between now and the acquisition transaction completing in November.

Definitely an important aspect to think about MS. Sovereign/Geopolitical risk is v important and I hope Mozambique continues to improve, certainly welcome that it has been receiving support from other nations - the signs are pointing the right way but a long way to go. The closure of the Shell refinery late 2020/early in 2021 contributed to some civil unrest as it led to job losses.

Important to remember that Mozambique is a very big country with different parts of it undergoing different events/experiences. I expect TGR's management has done its DD as it has been following BAT's progress over the years according to Shishir's interview (this acquisition hasn't come out of nowhere) and it seems to have come to a natural point for TGR to take it over the projects as TGR is well experienced in managing Graphite projects as agreed with by BAT's management as a new long term shareholder in TGR - TGR also has its downstream projects that will be hungry for high grade flake - as well as the customer agreements to look forward to through the Trading Major Hanwa as alluded to in the RNS. Looking forward to November completion of the acquisition and hearing about the plans TGR has to commence production ASAP.

Another thing to take comfort in is that one of the largest global producers of Flake Graphite, Syrah Resources, is right next door to the newly acquired projects. Their project at Balama is a beast with a nameplate capacity of 360,000tpa(!) although they are patiently ramping up from restarting production which was disrupted by the pandemic in China and the 2019 EV dip. These guys have helped develop best practices and infrastructure at the nearby ports and built roads etc to support their project. I'm hoping TGR is able to leverage this and hopefully develop an experienced local workforce nearby, as well as employing the company's 'Shakantalum' policy to help spread benefits for local populations. CSR goes hand in hand with ESG and is a pillar for the Green Movement in producing the best outcomes for the world we are trying to build a better future for.

Check out the work done on the graphite out of Montepuez in the link below which achieved great spherical graphite results with a US company - another mention of the US (hunch something is brewing). TGR's footprint is definitely positioning itself to serve Eastern and Western markets very aptly imo:

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1427961686087065601?s=20

Hi guys, I have a question about Vanadium as i'm not that familiar with the material, grateful for any answers!

What is the minimum grade of Vanadium required to be considered economic for a free dig project?

Tirupati Graphite is a great up and coming company. Transformational period for many graphite producers and advanced materials specialists.

Good luck all Alba investors

Hi Lanky and glyn,

Scale increase is massive. Company is looking at growing another order of magnitude beyond what the originally intended 84,000tpa operation would have achieved - truly on it's way to becoming a major imo.
For Moz the nearest analogue is Syrah Resources, one of the original and largest producers of Graphite - believe it's the largest global producer of flake graphite outside of China, if not in the world. Great time to be building out projects in a steady way, not forgetting the modular approach to ensure development progresses in line with market demand. Can't wait for the first news to come from the relationship with Hanwa.

Some big news over at another UK listed Graphite+Graphene company today. The space is hotting up with major demand from multiple growing sectors. ACP another one in the right place at the right time imo - still have fingers crossed for the ML soon.

TGR was headed for midcap status in a few years, but this transaction speeds that up imo and of course grows the end result we are looking at down the line. Huge for TGR's prospects like you say. I'd like to hear more about the local expertise and people who are also now under the TGR banner in Mozambique - to have such huge projects producing using TGR's green and efficient processing methods will be game changing for the industry.

The reference to the significant interest for TG's graphite products being built across Asia by Hanwa is also noted!

Agree SI - this is a massive transaction - absolutely love having an ambitious, knowledgeable CEO. As the man himself says:

Shishir Poddar, CEO of Tirupati Graphite, said: "With fast evolving opportunities as the electrification of mobility has taken off, and the world is starting its scramble for supplies of critical raw materials of which graphite is one, this is nothing short of a game-changing acquisition for us to build our arsenal and seize every opportunity coming our way to becoming a global leader in flake graphite. Strategically, the Montepuez and Balama Central deposits are world class and will add 152 million metric tonnes at 8.5% TGC of resources to our existing c.25 million tonnes of resources in Madagascar, a c.6X addition on in ground resource tonnage with a c.12X addition on the contained graphite.

Possible indication for where price points might reach? SAV as low-cost, straight forward producer could be looking at some insane margins if the green light is given

Hi Legalwolf and ****ney,

I actively follow graphite co's across the world, TGR my UK favourite but different kettle of fish. Between BRES and ACP i'm invested in ACP given the stage it's at and am following BRES closely. There's no doubt BRES has a world class deposit but I worry about the distance to port having an effect on the eventual opex, but more importantly I don't see how BRES won't have to have a fairly significant fundraising in the near future to power through the studies and keep the ball rolling. Happy to be proven wrong but I am waiting for that post raise opportunity at BRES before committing. For now and going forward i'm happy with what I have in ACP which is in a sweet spot atm.

No worries Genghis. I guess you can take some comfort knowing TGR is MAIN market listed - it's NOT and AIM company and is doing more than just keeping the lights by actually building something with a strong market demand with the funds it has aiming to become self-sufficient and profitable asap.
Hope to see you stick around and for TGR to continue on its journey, but it's a steady, gradual road - Rome wasn't built in a financial quarter after all :)

Apologies for my waffled opinion below.

To end, I believe TGR to be a solid company in which to invest for the mid-long term, one which will become a mid-cap in due course. It is ideally placed to benefit from several super-trends and is already expanding at pace and so far has been seen to have a competent, innovative management team behind it.

Best of luck to all

Part 2
As I have said scale is what is important - look across the graphite industry and see the plans of the other would-be major producers without a single MT of current production - they have massive mcaps because of the future cash flows they are expected to generate. In a rising market for flake Graphite and downstream specialty products such as spherical graphite for EVs those mcaps are probably justified and will likely only grow. TGR needs to stay competitive and grow - it has to spend money as it has done.
My own view is that the company will be profitable by the end of 2022, if not then the end of 2023, given the sheer scale-up in facilities, as long as the company successfully builds out as it is trying to and shipping/construction disruption caused by the pandemic has ceased. That is Latent Growth, which is what I guess is the point of investing in growth companies - the EV and thermal & flame control super trends are good ones to be closely aligned to!

Having said that, I would probably expect another raise toward the end of the year/beginning of next year for reasons you alluded to in order to maintain operational momentum and not have to wait a year for the funds for the next leg of expansion, before the new modules start up - the important thing is the reason behind it if it does come. i.e. to bolster the productive and hence, money making capacity of the company to make the most of some very attractive margins
Of course all bets are off and forecasts and thrown out the window if the Aluminium-Grapehene composite or another advanced material the company is working on is developed for commercial application with the partners the company is currently working with!

Hi Genghis, i'll try to answer with my thoughts in 2 parts: Part 1

The likes of Deliveroo and until only a couple of years ago, Tesla, aren't/weren't profitable. If companies were only accorded value based on current profits then a lot of loss making companies would not exist.

Regarding TGR, the company listed in December 2020 and used the funds to start the process of scaling. The subsequent raise in April has continued this process and allowed the company to expedite the scaling of operations by several months. It is a shame that the Vatomina module has not commissioned yet to bring TGR up to 12,000tpa capacity but this can't be much further away now.
Scale is what allows companies to go from loss making to cash making and hence to become profitable. You have to invest in productive capacity to build a profitable company. The company has secured funding to contribute towards a much larger operation i.e. 30,000tpa flake graphite, 16,200tpa specialty products and, as reminded last week, 1-2kg a day of Graphene and HPG (High Purity Graphite) for product development and qualification testing currently established with the aim to build to 10kg a day by 2022 - this deadline might need updating or reaffirming by the company if Stage 2 of the Graphene business is still aimed for development this way as according to the April raise RNS. Surely, you could not have thought that the company would be able to fund such a massive increase in capacity without a raise like it did in April in which it raised £10m solely off the back of the proceeds a 3,000tpa operation?

If you consider the margins demonstrated in the company prospectus, which I am hoping the upcoming financial results will confirm, on the various elements of operations and expected from future sales (prices for which have risen) then you can work out what the company is hoping to achieve and gain an insight into how likely and feasible it is to do so using one’s own judgement. You can also see that from the stages to come online in 2022 the company aims to be able to self fund the final part of the Mid Term Development Plan through to 2024 without the need to raise. Checking the estimated profit margins in the prospectus and this seems achievable.

Thanks Tony - I thought there was a sense of calm confidence throughout his laid back presentation. Time will reveal all!

Congrats and welcome to those who waited for a lower entry, well done if you called it - lots to look forward to: EV sales, gigafactories and the need for flame/thermal controls booming.

Still waiting on confirmation of the 9,000tpa module's commissioning at Vatomina to bring TGR's production capacity up to 12,000tpa from the current 3,000tpa. That's a 4x increase to look forward to plus whatever is achieved from the larger primary and specialty modules coming online next year for FY2022-23.
Some financial results due soon, followed by results of the exploration and drilling campaign and possibly OTC listing in the next month or two imo.
Graphene composite work going on behind the scenes but doubt any news on that front until Q4 or 2022 as serious testing work being carried out.

Bonne Chance!

Congrats on seeing the opportunity early!

Shishir is certainly visionary considering how he has established 3 different business lines all vertically integrated, at least the vision is aligned very well for the several super-trends of the next couple of decades we've discussed on here already, and seems to have the ambition to drive towards his target - if the composite (which I think is currently impossible for the market to give any value to, same for the graphene side in general as hard to understand until it has developed and revenues from it are better understood) comes off I think it will be beaten comfortably in a few years. He's done very well to surround himself with such a good team by the looks of things - mention of America in the Downstream RNS end of June has certainly got my attention as well - timing for the OTC listing could be very well planned.

Congratulations on being in from day one SI, do you mean pre-IPO?

All about that latent growth here - revenue/profit should have a hockey-stick shape from next year onwards imo (but starting this year with the increase to 9,000tpa flake capacity) when major new funded capacity comes online (30,000tpa flake and 16,200tpa specialty + composite possibilities?) and relationships with customers and the likes of Hanwa translate into sales for TGR's in-demand products necessary for the future in line with several super-trends.