Member Info for Ghia

Newbie - No idea if I’m honest, first the company needs to release actual data to the scientific community and then it is how quickly they can run independent analysis on it.

There is already a range of opinions from experts just based on the headline readout. I would have thought as soon as data lands people will be jumping all over it to understand it.

So I’d hazard a guess at weeks once data is released.

There are members here better placed to answer this.

Jim1971 - Next share price drivers will be in no particular order:

- Validation by peer review of trial results (ASAP hopefully weeks)
- COPD interim trial results (due next month)
- FDA Approvals etc (hopefully weeks but maybe months)
- licensing/company take over (discussions will be happening right now with multiple parties)
- More TR1’s for new II’s (hopefully)

The share needs a breather to churn at this level and build a solid base.

Seaking1 - I think the point is many here spent months and months searching for a piece of IFN news related to covid that was bad and we failed.

We had distressed II’s dumping Driving the share price lower and we held firm bought more, did more research.

Listened to the CEO who basically sign posted the results for the PI, he used the term we are events driven company, we have an event coming up watch for our news.

Many of us held 100k plus of shares at averages from 33-70p.

This was a risky investment sure, but a calculated risk with 3bites at the cherry and it brought it home first time.

The way this has held firm after the meteoric rise, just shows how undervalued the company was prior to news.

How many shares pop 500% and then hold their gains? Even the pull backs on the way up have been minimal here.

Feels very solid, Interesting to see if any more TR1’s appear mcap now over 100mil therefore meeting entry requirements of more funds.

Taverham - at Home is targeting 65+ or 50+ Who are vulnerable i.e high risk groups.

Reality is most of these people are probably still shielding and less likely to be out partying so it is taking a while to find participants.

If a second wave hits the trial will fill easier, the recent press will help.

If COPD data is good I doubt we will have to wait for home trial results anyway before a deal is done.

JJess - The hospital trial is one arm of the study the at Home is another arm so of the total 400, 220 are currently covered.

I believe they had an upto 400 participants in case they needed to power up the trial by adding more patients.

The results where so good that they didn’t need to.

Solstace - Yes but Morningstar data listed them as holding 5% before results I expect they have only finished buying hence the TR1 now.

Google cache the morning star webpage to see.

It also listed Miton who are under the threshold but confirmed it via their own fund memo.

Yes and No.

It’s a good sign of confidence but we knew through research on this board that Polar owned at least 5% prior to results. It is a good sign that they have increased further.

And finally have a Tr1 to back up our research.

Chris - The market cap question roughly translates to how long is a piece of string!

What do we know already:

AZN where good for 250Mil on Asthma before COPD and before Covid

So 250mil is a ridiculous floor

I'd be bumping my base expectation up to 500mil which loosely equates to the £3.60 Finncap valuation.

But with a bidding war Covid and COPD in play you would be fair to speculate up to a billion maybe even beyond.

The COPD preliminary read out next month is obviously staged to boost the value of the asset, fattening the Goose they want fair value for the asset they've been working on for 15 years.

dave1203 - Wise move to top slice protecting your capital is always important.

I'm sorry but I don't feel comfortable giving financial advise since I am not qualified to do so.

What people choose to do has to be ultimately their own decision as everyone's situation is different. If you held before news you have seen a 500% rise that is an investors dream. Banking profit feels good by the way.

If you continue to hold you may see further rises in the order of 1x 2x maybe 3x but the hard lifting has been done.

Whatever you choose don't look back with hindsight, you made the best call making it this far.

Given the companies stance on data is king you can guarantee the data is hiding nothing.

They where very clear and open in the Q&A that they are not manipulating numbers.

This will be sold to the global player that can lubricate the channels most effectively.

Expect FDA, EMA and a transaction to happen in a very short timeframe.

Breatheasy - That’s criminal you still have £20k allowance to fill!!

Seriously well played though.

I paid the price for not having a big enough S&S ISA pot prior to this period.

I had my ISA stuffed with 45K shares a further 40K shares in a share account.

And then turned to spreads to reduce the Capital Gains liability.

Food banks a very worthy cause indeed my wife and I have been doing the same throughout the crisis and will continue to do so.

Enjoy your gains.

Maybe search for who manufactures the I-Neb nebuliser soon to be in great demand globally.

Chrishar - Yes that’s a common issue with investments the emotional attachment.

SNG has some way to go on it’s journey I believe the science and the board so this should be a great journey.

At the same time who looks at 500% gains and says no thanks, a braver person than me.

My happy compromise is to sell a few here and there my trading yesterday has cost me £1000’s but ultimately I have cash in the bank and a smile on my face.

I’ll always hold some till the end even if it’s a few token shares.

CW25 - There are now two pockets of investors that exist on this board.

Those like us fortunate to have held prior to results, still holding to see the story to completion but hopefully wise enough to have de-risked a touch.

The much needed new holders which are looking for their SNG success, it’s still likely 1x 2x 3x gains can be made.

It nice to see this moving on up strongly again, have you thought anymore on you exit plan here?

If we reach the £3.6 broker target I might have to pull a fair amount.

MMgames - I very much doubt you or anyone on this board is suitably qualified to be giving investment advice to anyone.

We can share opinions, research, theories and this board has been particularly good for that.

The strength of research here has kept many PI’s in the game and we have benefited hugely from the news today.

I suggest all newcomers and current holders digest the news, this is the first of 3 trial readouts with the 2nd due next month.

CW25 - Bare in mind entry requirement for at home is 65+ or 50+ in high risk groups.

The challenge will be finding people that meet this criteria I expect most at risk are still shielding.

I’m sure it will fill quicker after today’s news but weeks might be optimistic.

Crookie - I took out enough at 1.70 for the Mrs new car so she will get off my case.

I won’t part with the rest until a deal is done

A bit of a wrap up of what we now know:

-Preliminary results show an unusually strong signal that the drugs works, this is unusual for a trial of this size and bodes well for a statistically significant result at both 14 day and 28day endpoints.
-The trial cohort had fairly well balanced co-morbidities across both groups.
-The company seem very confident that the data set is of the highest quality and will stand up to peer review
-The at Home Trial has been recruiting poorly due to declining infection rates in the UK and the fact the target group the most vulnerable are likely still to be shielding.
-The company are actively pleading with the press to get the at Home trial awareness boosted they want this drug in the lungs of the most vulnerably and after todays news who can blame them.
-COPD data next month likely to be a good read.

I guess the focus now for SNG is to get the lungs into as many people as possible, through the granting of emergency use authorizations and the like, this will further enhance the dataset.

The longer big pharma allow this data to be gathered the more they will pay, a deal will be done at some point will SNG survive the year?

DubD - I'm glad you stuck around through the thick and thin.

I wonder if DougieScotland held strong hope they did also.