Member Info for GGPThruandtru

I was making sure other people, that didn’t know Hannam’s prediction was until the end of they year, now know ;-)

You’re smarter than that aren’t you Silverhorse surely? You know that their share price prediction is only up to end of year yeah? (Thumbs up emoji)

At this rate Hydro you’re gonna be more talked about than Will Smith!!!

Obsession is never a good thing guys.

Personally, I think SD is trying to build a proper company so going by the example of the big boys in the industry, he will want to continue with set releases in regards to Havieron. It’s good to have structure and dates. Other non Havieron news however might come out of the blue.

In terms of assays, for the already defined part of Havieron, I don’t think many results will help the SP (unless it’s something absolutely nuts that becomes our best intercept to date again) - however, outside the already defined resource, a good hit could get the ball rolling again. The only assays we should currently care about are 154, 155 and 156!! If they hit anything like recent Havieron assays, we are in dreamland.

If we do hit a second orebody within proximity of Havieron, I would not be surprised if Newcrest wanted that out ASAP too. Don’t forget Telfer is a big fracking processing facility!!

Congrats on finally getting them all in a row Dip!!! ;-)

Pete, not interested in that stuff. Too many variables between now and production that will affect all that in the next few years, let alone in 25 years time. Don’t care about brokers SP predictions. Was only after their “now” valuations. SP will end up wherever Shaun's ambitions take us.

Thinking about SD’s stance on this, I can only surmise that he thinks he can get more value with a quick sale rather than go down the arbitration route. “X amount now will lead to Z amount, which is more than the Y amount I might get.”

I like him, he seems too smart to not fight it if he felt needed to. Could be a wild ride guys, buckle up.

Thanks for that Pete. Link isn’t working on the ggp website to the note but I remember when that came out :-) Not sure many people took that seriously as it was way too soon to start guesstimating like that.

We know brokers “work for us” and in terms of target SP’s they have to stay “within a range” to seem legitimate. I don’t care about that and I don’t care about the share price. I care about the value of the asset. Both brokers value the 5% at over $200m. This is not a prediction to future value or a prediction of SP in 3/6/12 months time. This is “their” estimate on CURRENT value (FMV) of said 5% (right now). They’ve read the same contracts as we have. If they can’t get close to the numbers NCM/GGP are on this, then there’s something wrong.

Pete, if you could post a link or mention of any broker note that uses 21moz as their gauge, it would be appreciated. The max we got to with the brokers was 12moz and to be fair to them, that’s still conservative.

The premise that brokers are using their target sp as the basis for their 5% valuation could have merit. Makes sense in some ways. They could however base the sp target price in forward thinking as well, so shouldn’t have to be that basic of an equation.

I can’t remember there being any info in terms of the parameters to the 5% FMV in the original contract so I’d be curious as to whether SD is mildly hampered or massively hampered in negotiations. That is probably the key here in terms of our understanding of the FMV.

Anyway, in SD we trust, (to use a football analogy, which i know some people here like, but tough, lol), but I can’t help feeling he wants to get this 5% out the way quickly so he can have a clean slate. Might be more prudent to take his time and get full value for it, but like I’ve said here before, he might have a plan for getting said 5% quickly in order to progress the company. I feel more confident than ever, but I don’t want this 5% to be something he considers “old” and move on to quickly…

Yeah, I get the fact that they use the 10moz but they’ve been using that for over a year and are still using it. I trust SD and am with him all the way. I just don’t like this massive discrepancy between the brokers and ggp/ncm valuations. Seems pretty realistic to me and I feel that if SD pushed it, he could get NCM to use the 10moz as a base. I mean, frack it, he should push for the 10moz and let it go to arbitration. The least he should get is the capex. A deal could be struck with Newcrest saying no cash payment wanted, just cover the original mine capex. Works for both companies bottom lines as no cash transactions needed.

This whole 5% FMV is very weird. Looks like both parties trying to play a different game at the same time. But, I am starting to have less and less faith in our so called brokers. I mean both of them have quoted a payment in excess of $200m. I don’t understand how it can be that far off what we’re going to get or what NCM and GGP are discussing. Don’t the brokers talk to our board?

Did anyone ask Shaun about Berenberk at the meeting?

Also, how did you get the $100-150m minimum Hydro from 6.5moz?

Hey Spoon, lucky your message was on page 2 otherwise would have missed it. The $123m is the $73m capex and the $50m Newcrest loan that needs repaying, although that loan could be less at the time of the 5% payment depending on how much of it we’ve spent.

Well thank you chaps and chapesses for all the relevant info from yesterday. Sounds like SD is very bullish about our future and the Havieron asset like most of us here have been since HAD05 came back… “still waiting for our little slice of history”

However, he doesn’t sound too confident on the 5%, even to the extent of mentioning funding needed for the original capex. I am little bit disappointed/miffed at the fact he doesn’t think he can get $123m for the 5% which would cover the loan and capex. I mean, even 500koz at only $300 is $150m.

Surely, if it went to arbitration it would take longer but I think we would definitely see that amount and maybe even a little more. However, it does seem like SD wants this out of the way ASAP, so I’m guessing and hoping he has plans for the 5% cash payment that would increase shareholder value more than holding out for a larger FMV on the 5%. I do hope he’s right.

They’re all p i s s e d I think MFU. We’re better off waiting for tomorrow to get the lowdown… :-)

Sycho, there’s a famous saying along these lines:

“If you can’t learn something new and become adept at that new thing within two years of dedicating time to it, you’re doomed to a life of repetition.”

That means people are able to learn new things and if you’re smart enough, you can easily become an expert in said subject. It’s called learning!

I think it’s 30 days from when the “price is set” for Newcrest to accept and decline. So there’s no need for us to be counting days at the minute. After the 5% valuation, then we can start the countdown.

@Zoros - well, they’ll be drilling the bejesus out of the other 5moz+ deposits found at our other tenements ;-)

Nothing much. Australia are getting hit by energy price rises too but a quick google search of sodium cyanide Australia shows a lot of producers. I think Australia is pretty much self-sufficient when it comes to producing gold, especially big companies like Newcrest. They will no doubt have their own branches under the NCM banner that produce everything they need to run their mines.

FT - “ FT: The world’s largest maker of gold and silver mining material, sodium cyanide, has been forced to suspend production in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. Czech group Draslovka said production of the chemical, used in the extraction of precious metals from ore, had become uneconomic in Europe, with gas prices in the region at 12 times the levels in the US, compared with just 1.5 times in 2020.”

I’d argue that the question isn’t “is there 20moz down there?” I think with all the drills and MREs, it’s fairly obvious there will be 20moz found over the next 2-4 years. The question will eventually become, “how much of the 20moz+ is economical?”