Member Info for GGPThruandtru

Haha, JBloggs! Doing some troll-hunting of your own today? :-0 (Thumbs-up-emoji)

Highly unlikely a royalty company would buy the full 25% sandgrounded. That’s not really how they work. Solgold sold only 1% of their resource to Franco Nevada for $100m.

Yeah, me too with an average of 2.4. Won’t top up until we get some decent results here. It’s all at the planning stage too. Hopefully 2022 will move us forward.

Haha, welcome to Cobra Hydro. Been here a while? Spread has been like this ever since I’ve been in which is over 18 months now I reckon. It’s still an under the radar and unloved share. Hopefully it’s time will come.

Silly idea in my eyes. Buying the Artemis territory without any assays back is just buying more unexplored land, and even if we do hit something under there, we would once again be at the mercy of Newcrest. There is enough gold in Havieron for Newcrest/GGP to be digging out for years to come. That profit would be better used to drill out all our other tenements in 2022 and diversify ourselves a little, maybe even buy a ready made producing plant somewhere. Buying Artemis is pointless as it would just join the queue behind Havierons resources before even considered for Telfer.

Maybe FUBAR. I’m secretly hoping there’s loads of other minerals down there and when we eventually get deep enough, we can build another plant at Havieron for all these other lovely metals :-)))))

Haha, Lenz, relax…Rosso is using £s ;-)

Cheers Ben. Let’s see shall we. I’d be elated with anything over $250m!!

$50-100m Merc? Really? You don’t trust the Cannacord experts?

To be fair to this whole thing, at least with the 5% we’ll get some idea of how good Cannacord are at their job. They estimate $280 for around 10-12moz. Their mining department you’d think would be classed as experts. If they get this completely wrong, fair to say we can ignore any future broker notes from them regarding GGP SP and future.

Anyway, that’s me done for the night, lol. Off to see Back to the Future at the Theatre!!

Don’t know why I’m in the mood to type today…but Dip brings up another good point. This 5% will put a minimum on our value if Newcrest decide to buy Hav out!(not that I think or want it to happen, I want to go producing).

If we get the Cannacord estimate of $280m for the 5%, then we’re looking at a minimum value for the 25% at $1.4bn, which would also be the minimum buyout amount for Newcrest if they did want the extra 25%.

Bear in mind the 5% is using in-ground value and ounces expected up to now. With more drilling, comes more ounces and with more ounces at a premium to in-ground value (could be at least double as others have alluded to), you could realistically say that Newcrest would need to pay a minimum of $3-4bn for a buyout.

With the extra ounces clearly visible and the low aisc of the starter mine and going lower with block cave, it could feasibly be a lot more than $3/4bn.

Would love $350m Ben!! Not sure how you’d know this but hey ho…it’s gonna be an interesting and hopefully fun February!

I’ve realised today that this board reminds me of the “Cobra Kai” series. Never have I seen a show where so many nice/good people fight with each other over stupid misunderstandings or getting the wrong end of people stick :-))))))))))))) (rofl emoji)

Decent series by the way. Kind of like a parody of itself (thumbs up emoji)

Lens, read the whole thread ;-) No one is saying “the mcap will have a bearing on the 5%” - we are saying that the “5% should have a bearing on the mcap”

Cheers Kevin, more people jumping in before reading (eye till emoji). CB, what Kevin said.

Future value could be anything! In theory the difference between payment for in-ground value and eventual production value could be anything…

Hey Kevin, if we get say $200m for the 5% the other 25% is worth $1bn, so with the $200m already received kind of values us at $1.2bn no? So 6x. At least that’s how I’d see it….

For frack sake, there’s far too many people on this board looking to jump down people’s throats before thinking a bit.

JJNorton was merely using today’s price as gauge/example. He’s saying what we’ve been saying for a while. Whatever the 5% is, you can argue that our mcap in theory after that should be 6x(the 5%) at least not counting anything else. Crying out loud guys, stop being so touchy.

Guys, chill. JJNorton wasn’t using the SP to calculate value, merely the SP after we get the valuation of the 5%. It’s another way of looking at the possible movement of the SP after we get the cash.

So now that they’ve fixed the site and we can see old posts, I thought I’d repost this from when the note came out. Turns out it wasn’t $228m but $280m. Go figure (hands out emoji)

Reposting coz I like it and think it’s pretty close to what we might get if the brokers valued it. (I’d hazard a guess any third party, if needed, will probably use same workings). Think using the broker note as a basis is better than any wild guesses.

Cannacord note -
"FMV assessment are likely to range from $25m, based on 5% of the South-East Crescent NPV estimate in the initial PFS to our estimate of $280m based on our estimate of gold ounces likely to be in the ground"

So, it's not a range as such. The $25m is for the PFS and the $280m is for the total ounces Cannacord are expecting to be proven up currently. Two different values, as opposed to a range. Makes me think they don't know what will be used. Clarification would be good. But back to the $280m valuation. Brokers past notes have used between 10-12moz total current predictions. Using these we can calculate Cannacord's price for each "in-ground" ounce of gold.

10moz @5% = 500koz
$280m divided by 500koz = $560 per ounce "in-ground" value

12moz @5% = 600koz
$280m divided by 600koz = $466.66 per ounce "in ground" value

Sounds to me like we will be getting closer to the $280 estimation as I would expect the deal to include all estimated current ounces at least! Maybe the final decision will be timed to coincide with the MRE2 where they are able to put a line in the sand in terms of ounces and potential ounces.

Happy with the new news, hoping like crazy that future ounces are included somehow, but the above "in-ground" value of each ounce is very good in my eyes from Cannacord.

T&T

Good to see you’re still around Chart!

Seems to me there’s lots of LTH’s from back in the day just sitting and waiting like the rest of us…

Don’t forget guys, the story is still only a few chapters in…looking forward to the main bulk of the book to unfold…

@ProfQ - I haven’t seen a Berenberg valuation for the 5% but if you’re talking about the Cannacord one, it was $228m with them using 10-12moz I think. They also gave an estimate of around $50m using JUST the MMRE amounts.

Think I worked out the price in a previous post for the $228m at between $450-$600 per ounce, which I would be very happy with.

Hehe (Eyes down emoji)

Apologies CJ. Phelps it is then :-)