Member Info for GGPThruandtru

You said “these brokers?”

I presumed with a bit of sarcasm as you went on to insult them too…

Cannacord yeah! What’s your point CJ? Are we not to trust sector brokers estimates anymore? The $228m is based on around 10moz in ground. And the estimate for the ounces from both brokers was 10m over a year ago ;-) we’ve seen even better results since then. Next we have the step outs and growth drilling…hmmm

And if it’s the price targets you don’t like from the brokers, you have to bear in mind they have to be conservative. I have rarely seen brokers estimate more than 50% upside and I can understand why they do it. However, it doesn’t mean they don’t think it’s worth more…

Haha. And again you ask Mumbo Jumbo? And I ask you again, what have you got against the industry brokers estimate of around $228m for the 5%? Too low or too high for you?

Let’s not forget Cannacord’s…$228m valuation!

Anyone else getting a stupid video advert pop up every time they come on this site?? What the hell is that about? They really don’t give two shiits about their site visitors do they?

Hey Canary, I think Sandeep likes talking about the copper because Telfer is already able to process all that and make it pay. Think the nickel itself will be a long term thing and not something we should really think about. Way over 10 years I reckon before the nickel comes into play. After all, there’s at least 15moz of gold and copper to get through first before needing to consider Telfer for nickel.

Cheers Bamps. So yeah, work needed, and probably won’t be relevant for a long time. I think Shaun is looking at the other tenements in terms of potential for different minerals, hence the name change.

“If a Telfer wasn’t there”

What has that got to with anything? IF I had wings I would fly. The strongest aspect of Havieron is the fact that Telfer IS THERE AND READY!

I can’t see a third party takeover of Havieron due to Telfer. Newcrest could easily outbid any other offer for Havieron due to their low low capex to production. Third party would need to build a plant. If a bid came for GGP from a third party, say due to finding something huge somewhere else like Ernest Giles, the third party would sell Havieron to Newcrest.

I thought processing plants were set up for certain minerals. If indeed we did have nickel eventually, wouldn’t it require a new type of processing plant or require Telfer to have an upgrade of some sort? Might that not make the Nickel pointless without a larger initial investment.

StraBright, I think the fact that the Telfer plant is there, ready and waiting, whilst also running low on ore, makes most basic comparisons using just ore reserves very difficult. I’d like to think the brokers know their job and the sector enough to not be too far out in their estimates.

Think the Tropicana one was valued a little differently to what you’re doing StarBright. Think people on here worked it out at over $600 per ounce.

Cannacord’s recent note on the 5% due to GGP from Newcrest worked on a figure between $450-550 per Oz, which I was very happy with.

Even if we found our own Havieron, the minimum cost and time of getting it to production without Newcrest and Telfer would be on average 7-10 years plus $1-2bn for all work needed to build the mine and plant. You don’t sell the moneymaker.

Sharpercarper - it would be like Microsoft inventing Windows and then selling it off to try and create another OS without reaping any of the profits to be gained from Windows. Not good business sense to me and seems a waste of constant future funding.

Merry Xmas to all GGPers and cheers to a lovely fortuitous 2022.

T&T

Lenigas has kinda been involved with us for a while, using Havieron to pump his own interests in other shares.

Any chance BiggL is Lenigas?? (LOL)

LA, I was just getting to the average price using Cannacord figures. I'm sure they've done all their calcs on that stuff themselves. I'll leave that stuff to them. But using that, you can get an average at what Cannacord belivee the value of each ounce is.

Agreed Speedie but we're still a little away from even trying to put a figure on that. I'm not trying to put a value on GGP. It's a process. The 5% and the Cannacord note can be worked with to give an idea of what we will have to play with going forward.

Production value will depend on a few things which we can't guess now. But, this 5% will now clearly pay the $73m capex needed to get to that first stage of production. How much we earn from that first phase will then determine also how we will get the capex for the bulk stage scenario. It was quoted at $2bn of which GGP's share will be approx 500m.

Will Shaun use the 5% to go towards that? Will we split it with exploration? This first windfall will be a lot of fun in terms of what we can do with it. Interesting times ahead.

Had another wee read of the note that was released today and the wording is pretty straightforward, it allows for a couple of strong calculations.

"FMV assessment are likely to range from $25m, based on 5% of the South-East Crescent NPV estimate in the initial PFS to our estimate of $280m based on our estimate of gold ounces likely to be in the ground"

So, it's not a range as such. The $25m is for the PFS and the $280m is for the total ounces Cannacord are expecting to be found. Two different values, as opposed to a range. Makes me think they don't know what will be used. Clarification would be good. But back to the $280m valuation. Brokers past notes have used between 10-12moz total current predictions. Using these we can calculate Cannacord's price for each "in-ground" ounce of gold.

10moz @5% = 500koz
$280m divided by 500koz = $560 per ounce "in-ground" value

12moz @5% = 600koz
$280m divided by 600koz = $466.66 per ounce "in ground" value

Sounds to me like we will be getting closer to the $280 estimation as I would expect the deal to include all estimated current ounces at least! Maybe the final decision will be timed to coincide with the MRE2 where they are able to put a line in the sand in terms of ounces and potential ounces.

Happy with the new news, hoping like crazy that future ounces are included somehow, but the above "in-ground" value of each ounce is very good in my eyes from Cannacord.

Also interested to see the possible release from Newcrest tonight on this and whether there is any extra info or their wording is different.

Marco777- with you 100% mate. The gold is valued completely different “in-ground” compared to production. What this will do though is give GGP a base minimum valuation. Anything produced later on will be way more valuable than anything we are likely to get for the 5%.

Hey Starbright. I was using dollars yeah. I have examples of in ground valuation. I think we will be looking at a minimum of $200 per ounce due to Telfer being close by and due to Newcrest not having to close the plant down this saving them billions. I’d be happy with $400m for the 5%.