Member Info for Gerry65

TF - I'll take your statement that you are not related to AT at face value lol

Carlisle airport. I recall last time we debated it in August, you didn't really wish to debate the ins and outs of the project, I recall reminding you that the total average of the enterprise was 460 acres, with 212 acres used by airport activities. The other 268 acres was and is being developed by STOB mainly for logistics purposes. Hence my reference to the Edan Park link I mentioned earlier today and posted back in Aug. As you live up there could you confirm to this bb, the present position

We know the freight distribution centre was comp!eted as part of phase one. In addition the Edan Park warehouses ranging from 15000 sq ft to 330,000 sq ft, where being marketed from 2017 on the 21 acres adjacent to the distribution centre, as part of phase two. What progress do you have on phase three of the project. I only ask as being that you are local surely the local newspapers will have be full of the progress and developments on the site of your "pipedream" my friend.

Bond structure - the money has been raised, and hopefully spent on the proposed cap ex. Repayment is May 2024, I've no idea what value will be placed on the underlying esl security at that time, 4 years is some way away. Bond holders stumped up the money, Stob are liable to repay or restructure the bond by May 2024. Any changes to the position as last stated in the interims, will no doubt be stated in the final accounts to Feb 2020 due out this May or earlier if there is any price sensitive information. That's the bods duty after all. I'd take it that no news means no change to the autumn statement.
Intangibles - do you honestly think if you asked say 1000 of the UK's population that many would be aware of the esl finances and the DBAY T/O. The majority will know Eddie Stobart as the UK's best known haulage company. It's lorries are still trucking up and down our motorways atm still receiving waves from car drivers. The 6500 workforce is still being employed as we debate are they not ? As to the future let's wait and see I make no predictions

Intangibles cont. The public also see the numerous Stobart bio mass lorries buzzing around the country, remember it's the UK's no 1 supplier of you mass fuel generating renewable energy equivalent to the annual domestic energy needs of 2% of the UK's population. Then let's take Stobart aviation services, when checking in at gates at airports such as Stansted passengers are looked after by check in staff wearing their Stobart aviation uniforms. I'll leave Southend Airport and it's impact on passengers and the region to your imagination.

What's next - previous funding of dividends. Pleased you now agree with me that divs were funded out of non core asset sales, and not from extending loan facilities as you previously stated in your post earlier today @ 11.06. would you accept that your previous post could be interpreted as slightly misleading my friend.

Two shirts - like others the jury is out on Flyb - not enough info out there as to the actual position. As I've said before the Govt will either provide additional support or not.

I agree the three Connect shareholders may have differing agendas. Branson probably does want the slots. Stob were more than happy to de risk their balance sheet, by offering up and disposing of their airline and aircraft leasing units, as part of the deal, with Cyrus being offered their Stob shares at £1.50 to complete Stob's part of the deal. Stob want the flights in and out of Southend.

It's probably important to remember that both Cyrus and Stob were on the same page, when the recent latest Flybe financial concerns were raised. Between them they own 70% of Connect. Hopefully some factual news over the coming weeks will clarify the position. Stob have options - I offered three yesterday I believe.

Like others I'd expected esl to release their financials by the weekend just gone. Whether the T/O by DBAY allows further time seems beyond my pay grade lol. The bod clarified the position concerning the £50m bond back in its interim report last autumn. I'm only typing on a knackered old tablet whilst on holiday otherwise I'd cut and paste the relevant info for you but it's easy to retrieve.

To be honest this is old hunting ground for TF, which we have debated adnausim. The bond is for 5 years, repayable / restructurable in May 2024. By which time Southend should - virus permitting be pulling in 5m passengers + pa.

I'd endorse your comment regarding investing what you can afford to lose. For me every one of my STOB shares are free carrys a from previous trades, together with the divs. Agreed the sp is low at the moment, but when looking at my investments as a whole i place their nil purchase cost to me against their value in my personal investment portfolio.

It's fun and games out there STOB is a marmite share, still on a journey, which of course allows those with agendas or those with genuine concerns to raise skeptical comments. The odd one or two from a poster are understandable, cogent debate around the positives and negatives, is welcomed. However like many bb's out there STOB is not alone in owning one or two persistent trolls, who reguratate the same issues week in week out. Even though they have been covered in depth - hey no it's a free country.

Am off to get a drink at the bar.

Gla

G

Hi two shirts - I've been on a free carry for a number of years and picked up all the quarterly divs. I've added quite a few times with quick 3- 5 % trades on a number of occasions. Together with a couple of 15% - 20 % runs up last summer - June and August from memory, always cashing in my trades and holding profits in free shares. True the price is down atm, I've not traded anything yesterday or today, it's too unpredictable out there.

It looks like Jet2 are in the cross hairs today, is it there hotel in the news in Tenerife, am not sure - DTG shares down 14.36% today as I type.

Turning to AT, I'd suggest he would have much better advised to have sold his whole Stob shareholding at the time of his dismissal by the bod, rather than fighting the court case, losing it, then throwing money away on rank outside attempts at takeovers io flyb and Esl. He capped it all by selling out at £1.07 to cover his costs and embarrassment . Agreed higher than the present so. But millions down on what he could have had, if he had played it differently.

Perhaps he knew the virus was around the corner, I'm sure some of his plaudits would say he was such a visionary - I'm not one of them. Bearing in mind his narferious dealings.

G

TF - I know you have held your hand up to your investment in AAOG. But your investment there goes completely against your over riding principles that you regularly list regarding STOB on this bb. So I feel it relevant to remind you each time you post here with your continued negative mantra around issues that you and I have debated week after week since your first post here in late August.

We will have to agree to differ on your misunderstanding back In August though both you posts and my replies are available for you to peruse. I'd draw your attention to my 4 posts to you on the 24th Aug. Through our debate you seemed to accept some understanding of the points I was making at the time, did you not.

I know you live close to Carlisle and continue to knock the airport. Whether it is profitable without subsidies atm is open to debate. For STOB it has been an excellent opportunity, allowing for the major industrial and logistical development on the land owned and adjacent to the actual airport. You will recall we covered this in August. My post Aug 25th at 15.21 which included two links one to the actual airport website and the other and perhaps more important one to the Edan Park development.

May I ask were you personally adversely effected by the project, as your negatively seems strange, as surely anything that supports connectivity for your region must be a good thing.

I will here again correct you as to your statement that previous divs were paid out of an ever increasing loan - as you put it. They were in fact paid out of sales of non core assets, this was a AT strategy, which benefited lth's but had to come to an end. Though there remain decent non core assets, on the balance sheet ready for disposal at the right time and at the right price.

The company has used it's borrowing facilities to develop both it's Energy Division and fund the substantial investment into Southend Airport.

May I ask you, is AT a relative ? The ex cabinet maker is not the " deal maker" you present him as. Not only was he kicked off the STOB bod for his dodgy dealings, subsequently losing his court case against STOB, he had already been demoted, as he was clearly out of his depth and comfort zone with the Aviation Division, necessitating, the head hunting of Warwick Brady.

Could you please provide this bb with any positive comments regarding his calamitous attempts to broker takeover deals in both Flyb and Esl in the last year or so. How much do you calculate he lost financially in both ventures ? What damage has there been to any balanced views of his business accumin ?

Stob are well shot if him my friend.

G

Volcano - the spread of the virus continues to be a concern. For a while I've been thoughtful as to the ratio of deaths to cases quoted in China mainly due to a suspicion that many cases were not reported by individuals to the state.

The outbreak in northern Italy whilst disconcerting and distressing for those involved, does provide an opportunity to obtain accurate % mortality rates for the virus.

With connectivity of travel around the world one has to consider whether it will now be possible to contain.

We'll have a clearer picture over the coming weeks. I've got to get back home from Tunisia on Friday. Then by the 15th March I have to pay the balance on our Egypt holiday in June, and towards the end of June the balance of our Morocco holiday in September. Both arranged through Tui. Whilst being a relatively fit 60 yearold, I go to the gym 4 times a week, I caught full on flu in Feb 16 then was hit again in Feb 18. Neither were pleasant experiences. I now take the flu jab each autumn, as it seems I am suseptical.

The travel industry could be in for a very tough time over coming months. Atm we are still in the quiet period for flights out of Southend, which is fortunate for STOB.

Gla

G

Morning TF - just wanted to remind you that when you originally popped into this bb, you did so following your misunderstanding regarding the two different co's esl and stob.

Your financial criteria for prudent investment in your last two posts are laudable:
- strong cashflow
- levels of intangibles
- long term debt funding

May I ask why you threw these laudable criteria out of the window with your investment into AAOG ? Check out the financials over there. Looking at the last 3 years accounts - negligible revenue flows. Intangibles at £10.39 m against net assets of £6.01 m. Funding through shareholder placings.

Do I draw the conclusion that factors that you suggest are important to you when assessing STOB, are completely ignored and disgarded by you when you actually decide to invest in a company. I took another look in over on AAOG this morning - it looks grim. Just for balance maybe you could provide your prudent financial assessment decisions that led you to become a shareholder over there.

G

Let's see how the UK market reacts to the US open.

G

TF - I genuinely doubt you'll ever buy STOB, to be honest my friend.

Volcano - same here - no trading positions open for me atm. Am holding on to my main long term holdings. Only got to look back to Jan - may 2016 to see the ftse bet 5600 -6000. You never know !

There are going to be some bargains out there, timing will be key.

Today looks to be a better day to own an airport than run an airline.

Gla

G

Morning Volcano and Tav, am trying to type on a tablet over here in Tunisia whilst on a short holiday, and with stubby fat fingers there may be a number of typo's this week.

Volcano I managed to get a small slice of the hoc cake last week, nowhere near your entry level though. As soon as I arrived on Friday afternoon I closed my cna trade at 79p which got me about 8% for a few days trade. Was not confident to hold it any longer than that.

Turning to STOB, we will likely have to wait till May for the year end results to Feb end, unless they put out a Q4 trading announcement. I'd be expecting strong revenue performance from both the Energy and Aviation divisions.

Though we'll need to see how much of the planned cap ex for 2919-2020 has been undertaken and what's to come in 2020 - 2022. TF continues to worry about esl and Flyb, though he need not as he is not invested, though he raises reasonable thoughts.

Investing in Connect gave STOB the opportunity to partially de risk it's balance sheet through its disposal of its airline and aircraft leasing units, receiving a 30% stake in Connect. It can focus on Southend and Stobart aviation services.

As part of the deal Cyrus capital now holds a 5.74% stake in STOB, with the majority of the shares priced at £1.50. David Shearer also paid £1.21 for his holding.

I didn't pick up any additional news on Flybe over the weekend. There will either be additional Govt. Support or there won't. If more funds are required, from the shareholders then STOB has at least three options, increase its funding, decline to invest more, and expect it's % shareholding to reduce in size or sell its stake I guess.

The markets are getting hammered today, particularly the airliners and metals. Watching fxpo glen and kaz with interest.

Tui down 9% pleased I offloaded those, now back around £7.70 ezj also down 9%,rya 8% and dtg 8% too. Bargains for the brave, maybe lol.

Gla

G

Hu Volcano yes I saw your post over on the emg bb, its having a good day, popping over £1.60, kie also seems to have legs running up again today.

I was a little frustrated this morning, tried to buy HOC on the open after the results, but my Halifax trading platform kept on coming up with an error message. By the time It finally sorted itself out - by 8.45 - the horse had bolted, and I'd missed out on an easy quick trade. Am back from the gym now and its up at £ 1.81 + - hey ho, also another opportunity tomorrow.

Am off for a weeks break to Tunisia on Friday, hopefully the resort will have good wi fi - so i'll be keeping abreast of things.

G

Hi Volcano - i should have followed you into KIE, but was already in BBY, where i've made a little bit, but nowhere near the upturn in KIE, you did well there.

Been enjoying the debate over on NCYT today. i'ts bouncing around a bit.

Am keeping an eye on fxpo, kaz and tui, for a buy in price. Lloy results due, may be a trade there too.

Meanwhile, we await, further news for direction on STOB.

G

volcano - yep that's one that got away it was being recommended on a couple of bb's, Thurs afternoon, by the time I got to read it up on Fri i felt i'd missed the boat, but no it was onwards and upwards again today.

Still there's always another opportunity, just around the corner.

Gla

G

Tav - I've decided to close this mornings TUI re buy, this afternoon, made only a very small profit to be honest. will look to get in again soon i hope.

A bit spooked by increasing virus no's, and any possible down play today from the Cabinet re shuffle.

You should be fine with Barc pity that the results over there are over shadowed by the probe into the ceo. May well feel like yesterday's news in a week or so. Also i'd factor 1.5p in today's drop, for Barc, as overall market malaise, with results published on a risk off day.

I'm light on house builders, got out of CRST too early.

Strange times atm.

G

Volcano - enjoy your weekend break. Yep got my finger over the buy button on TUI. Being offered low £8.80's atm.

Most on my watch list are red and buys today. Also looking to get back those fxpo shares I sold yesterday if I can get the right price.

Likewise am holding quite a lot in cash at present, looking for opportunities.

Decided it's best not to look at my long term div hold shares today. Not an attractive viewing lol.

This volatile market is great for trading.

Should see some news on Govt / Flybe by the weekend.

G

Hi Volcano - saw the rise there - you did well on that one. there are still 2/3 more weeks till the Finals are out, will keep tracking SPT. but I've missed the boat there atm.

I've done ok over on FXPO this week - but I've decided to take my profit this afternoon, though I can see it getting back over £2 again, but its quite volatile. I'm hoping to get my TUI shares that I sold yesterday, back soon - looking for sub £9.00,having given up the div, for the expected drop today.

Looks like STOB is waiting for news on Govt. support for Flybe, and maybe news on ESL, for direction. I'm confident that the Finals when they are published, will be encouraging for both the Energy performance and growth at Southend.

G

Yep Volcano - nice rise over on TUI helping out , I decided to take the 11% upward movement today and cleared the decks over there. Ex Div day tomorrow, am hoping to buy back on a dip in the next month or so.

Prob called it wrong but let's see.

G

TF - agreed any weak trading statements atm result in a co's sp getting hammered.

Any forward guidance mentioning tough market conditions, are seized upon to drop the price.

Any LTH's of RMG and BT.a would have done well to have sold the day before results with a buy back a day or so later. The cost of a couple of trades against a big reduction in the value of their holdings.

G

Hi Tav - thx for your thoughts on HUR, to be honest I've traded it several times on price and sentiment, but like many aim oil and gas co's I'm uncomfortable holding for the longer term. The problem is that cap ex has to be raised through placings, and the very nature of the beast is that there are periods without news, allowing trolls to come onto bb's and cause problems, purely looking to spread confusion and disruption. I must admit in the past I've been guilty myself, but I tend to leave that to others nowadays.

HUR was one of my regular trading shares during 17- 18. When it hit 40p around Apl 18, I think it was from memory, i moved to other opportunities. I did a quick in and out trade on the 29th Jan this yr, and did ok. At that time TF and I chatted here, I was happy with my trade, he indicated at that time he was going to hold, though I think he's now changed his mind.

Like you I am watching CARD, I managed to steer clear of NMC, mainly because I just didn't have a grasp on exactly what was truly going on in the background, way too volatile for me.

No trades for me today, though I've looked at a few. Don't want to carry any day trade into the weekend.

Gla

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Hi Volcano - Saga looks good on price, with virus issues atm. I plumped for CCL last week on the 30th. I picked up some at just over 30 quid am still holding atm. Would like an exit around the 35 mark, short term. if not its on a quarterly div, so i could hold for a while.

I'd like to pick up some SPT too before the finals are announced, in early March, am looking for an entry price, I don't want to delay like I did over on HGM where i missed half of the recent rise.

Any thoughts on HUR ?

looks like STOB may offer another trade opportunity tomorrow, lets see if there is any early doors rns in the morning.

G

Hi Volcano, i've closed my trade today too. taken the cash rather than free shares as to be honest as atm i think i've got enough of these.

Got quite a few other shares where i am ready to trade. Thx for the tip on Friday, have a look at it and posted over on the other bb - waiting for an entry price there.

Wonder why Stob dipped today. Could be a leak on news re Flyb or Esl, if no rns tomorrow morning then, i'll just be grateful tbat the market gave us another quick and easy day trade.

I must say Stob has been very good for trading. surely one day it will bite us on thd bum. But hey ho - not today.

G