Member Info for Gerry65

So we have the trading update, with excellent delivery from the Energy Division, confirming its revaluation, last June.

2.1m passengers for the yr through Southend confirmed too.

Trading update also touches on the impacts at Southend from the virus, and progress on additional funding requirements.

We also have the second rns confirming the press speculation on the potential offer for a 25% stake in Southend Airport.

Will the market consider the offer fair value ( suggesting the Airport should be valued at £700m overall ) or maybe a low ball offer, based on the recent Flybe news and knock on effect of the virus on airline sector overall.

Interesting times.

gla

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TF - many companies seem now priced to fail, across almost all sectors.

For optimists, there are loads of bargains at the sweet shop. For those more cautious, perhaps there are many value traps out there.

Much depends on how long "lock downs" continue for i guess. The Fed interest rate drop did not have the desired effect - short term at least, another 15 min. close down triggered over the pond. Not sure that any measures from FED, BOE, BOJ etc will shore up business confidence, atm.

I am counting my lucky stars that I closed a lot of positions back in Dec and got into cash on the Boris election win bounce. Have gone in on a few trades in Q1 2020, some have worked out ok, others i've closed out quickly, taking small losses.

There's not much in my long term portfolio, that's not been battered this year though, but many that I've held for a number of years are still above my entry points, which is some comfort.

There are a number of FTSE 100's on my watch list that are looking attractive, but maybe they are not quite ready for an entry.

I think that if gold can get past margin calls, there are some opportunities, I took a small bite at AAZ today, in the mid 70's, could be a bit too early perhaps.

Any bets on which direction the markets will take tomorrow ?

gla

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VanV - are you meaning Branson ( the breaded one ) Not sure his net wealth will be terminally damaged by any issues at VA. Its just the way of the world.

Virgin Atlantic is owned by the Virgin Group (20%), Air France-KLM (31%) and Delta Air Lines (49%).

BTW STOB have a lovely airport for sale - offers invited lol !

Or if push comes to shove they could apply for change of business use and convert the airfield to a housing estate , got a great rail service to London - only 51 mins !

Still feel I'd rather own an airport than an airline company atm.

Interesting times, not sure where I might pick up a summer holiday - any ideas ?

gla ( keeping smiling )

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Gold bouncing back this afternoon

When margin calls reduce, it looks the place to be.

HGM coming off today's lows also.

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Gold bouncing back - as I type.

When margin calls reduce, it looks the place to be - mid 70's for AAZ looks a reasonable entry point.

Anything can happen out there, but its a debt free company, and gold moves quickly to the market place with revenue receipts hitting the bank account far quicker than many other industries or sectors.

gla

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Hi Moniman - agree there is probably a fair bit of head scratching in a number of airline and Cruise Liner board rooms around the world looking at forward booking projections. same goes for many hotels and resorts.

Huge challenges for many businesses in many sectors all over the world.

We recently cancelled our June holiday in Egypt. Was thinking of popping into Halfords, to pick up a couple of push bikes for a UK cycling holiday.

Didn't go down well with my other half though lol.

gla

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Tav - yes am watching the US market with interest. Trumpy Pumpy, still hasn't got his promised stimulus package out there yet . As usual he spouted off, leading the US market to believe, there was a well thought out plan in place ready to implement.

He hasn't helped matters over there by continually bad mouthing the Fed. Not up to the task in hand imv. He seems out of his depth with the virus, and its likely impact.

At least here in the UK the Govt. and the BOE, seem to be working in unison. ( keep calm and wash your hands ).

Over in US Trump will look to blame everyone and anyone for his stock market fall.

TK - Saw you had bought in today on the ESL bb. Can't believe the abuse you received over there. The lack of understanding by many has been simply stunning. I thought ESL might settle around the 6 p level until the planned funding / restructuring proposed by May end. Many serial rampers popped in over there for a few days, and picked up a few £'s. But they were quickly off to their next target. Those left and under water, just got caught up in the game.

Agree that too many still don't understand the difference bet STOB and ESL, and i don't think its helped the STOB sp. I am completely out of airlines atm, still hold my STOB shares. there is no doubt that summer holiday bookings look under pressure atm. I personally took the decision yesterday to cancel our Egypt holiday with TUI. I'd already paid a £400 deposit, and was due to pay the balance £2k tomorrow. For a £100 cancellation / admin fee, I was able to switch the whole of the deposit to a replacement holiday, now in Tunisia, for June 2021. If the virus situation improves, say by the end of May, beginning of June, i'll look to pick up a late booking holiday, for this June.

The STOB finals due out in May will answer many questions. I'd expect very strong revenue growth for the Energy Division. Southend passenger numbers will be strong too, looking back over 2019 -2020. As to forward statements a lot depends on the virus. Think with the virus i'd rather own an airport than an airline.

Agree STOB looks a screaming buy at these levels, but there again so does everything on my watch list atm. Timing here will be key.

Gla G

Tav - yes you are probably correct, I thought it was a strange post from Klozza, it makes sense now, though I'd not recommend getting too involved with the ramping sect over on ESL - many including Smoking Joe came straight over from NCYT following ESL's return to trading. TF is helping them out over there, trading facts for fiction, which is all good.

I guess we are all finding it a bit of a challenge atm, I'm looking at where quality FTSE 100 shares were trading at the two market lows of May 16 and Nov 2018, with buy in levels for several including ULVR, AZN, GSK, FERG, DGE, BARC, BP, LGEN, MNDI, RB, RIO, SDR, BHP. I've priced these shares and a few others at those dates, and to be honest, most haven't got to the lows that they traded at those times. I am hoping for the best but can see the FTSE falling below 5500 or even 5000.

So perhaps, today bargains could be tomorrows value traps !

That said I did pick up a good trade in BP. at £3.18 with costs, which I closed out at a decent profit, will buy BP. again I'm sure. I also picked up a tranche of LLOY at 0.40p, I've held these, to be honest it could fall further, and I'll pick up more, but I'd expect, it to be back up around 55 - 60p By spring 2021, so I'll probably hold and shut my eyes lol.

I also bought some TLW for a punt yesterday at 16.5p, - am sitting on the sell button ( for no profit ), this afternoon, as its trading update, hits tomorrow morning, there are the usual ramping rumours over there so its just a case of getting the right out.

I like SPT at sub 2.10, and would take AAZ at sub 1.15. Also looking at HUM at sub 22p, and TRX if its funding gets sorted.

No news as yet from Trumpy Pumpy as I type,putting pressure on markets into the close.

gla

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Klozza - could you provide your figures, for your statement that STOB is paying 25% on a huge debt.

You may wish to use the RNS's dated 14th NOV 2019 - the interims and RNS dated 29th MAY 2019 the Finals for Feb 2019.

Within these accounts you'll find the level of borrowing, and the level of finance costs.

Based on your statement, this could be extremely good news for STOB as based on the actual costs of finance, if it was being charged at 25%,as you suggest - i'd say much of STOB's debt seems to have simply disappeared !

Happy days.

gla

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Volcano - did you find any trades today, bit scary out there.

Looks like STOB may hsve another late afternoon rally, Back up to 79 to buy atm.

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Tav - the value on STOB's assets would have been calculated, accepted and agreed by the other two shareholders.

It was down to them to decide if they got fair value for STOB's 30% entry into the Connect deal.

At the time I thought the assets were given s generous valuation. I posted on here a number of times that people should look at how STOB's 30% was structured.

Down to RB and Cyrus to decide if they got a fair deal.

There is no slight on STOB's reputation to be fair.

Gla

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Volcano - hfd is looking even better again at £1.25

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TF - I did say several times, backalong that people need to look at exactly what the terms of STOB's investment were, originally.

I put up an article some time back where it mentioned that the Connect deal had allowed it to de risk it's balance sheet.

I did feel at the time the value placed on it's aircraft leasing business was generous.

Until the recent £7m there was no cash outlay from STOB, so it will be interesting to see how and where the original T/O monies to invest in Fand restructture FLYB came from.

In effect STOB were able to dump two challenging parts of its Aviation business, which also allowed them to place greater focus on Southend Airport.

In additional there were the shares raised to Cyrus for it's STOB shareholding at £1.50.

With TOSCA now onboard it will be interesting to see how Cyrus see things moving forward.

Never a dull day with STOB.

Gla

g

Volcano - I missed the second push here, unfortunately ask was travelling down to Devon this morning, to visit relatives.

A couple of hours on a wet A303, though the sun came out as I hit Devon.

Looks a decent company - lots to like in the trading rns.

Will have to look for another dip to get back in. We'll done to those that held.

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Volcano - yes out of SPT this morning on the back of the expected results.

Like the Co. but like you - quick in and out trades, and back to cash is the order of the day atm.

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Volcano - i took a quick profit here too this morning.

Nothing against SPT - just want to get in and out on my trades quickly at the moment, and get back to cash in my trading account

Quick profit, in and out

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Hi TS - our posts crossed yes agreed.

G

It's £3m a yr to STOB to continue to use the licence

£15m to buy a perpetual licence purely fir use in the logistics market

or £50m to STOB to buy a perpetual licence for unrestricted use.

or re brand ?? !!

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TF / TS / Compass - some interesting comments and thoughts.

The balance sheet for 2019 -2020 will look different, the Energy Division will see a major re rate. As TF says no cash impact today on STOB, it did in fact take the opportunity with Connect, to focus on Southend.

I read an interesting article on the Value of the ESL brand, I believe ESL have to make some decisions this year on what to do, moving forward.

TF you might want to look out that article on the options for ESL and post it here if you can find it, its on the esl bb somewhere, but it might be a bit of a trawl thro. to find it lol.

It will be interesting to see what Cyrus do with its shareholding in STOB. Also on here and over on the adfvn bb, thoughts have been introduced as to TOSCA's longer term plans, for its investment in STOB, which continues to increase.

I wonder if they increase there holding today on any weakness, in the sp. They are getting it at a real discount atm. Question for me is shall I follow their lead and buy today, in the 70's - emmm.

gla

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Its a sad day for staff and customers, with a potential impact on some regions.

Flybe was only likely to make it till the end of this month without additional support and the virus finished it off.

I doubt many of the routes will be filled, at the same prices by remaining airlines, at least until the virus has run its course.

At least here will be no more additional investment requirement from STOB, i'm guessing some who lost money on the T/O can now accept, the true challenge that Connect faced with Flybe.

The STOB balance sheet will look quite different, when published in May. Even though this news is post yr end. There will be a £50m write down for the Connect transactions linked to Flyb, and a re rate to the Energy Division from £100m to £237m following the independent revaluation last summer.

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