hi Supercharger - i'm confident for the medium to longer term here.
I feel STOB has cleared a number of hurdles, over the last 18 months or so, including the bod legal battle, the Connect t/o of Flyb, together with Tinkler getting it wrong with his flyb trade, during the t/o., which all contributed to some market uncertainty.
I've mentioned before that whilst i along with many others did enjoy the short term high divs paid out of non core asset sales, i was very pleased to see the bod use its remaining stake in esl to underpin the post 2019 finals £50m bond raise, for planned 2019 - 2020 investments as detailed on the main STOB website.
I'm very much a collector of STOB shares, and have been very fortunate, with a number of trades, since my first buy in here in March 2016. My strategy has remained constant, buy in low and top slice holding my profit in shares, which including divs has allowed me to build up a decent holding here, with all shares on a free carry.
I'll deffo be looking to buy more if sub £1.10 comes around again. I personally believe the Interims in Oct will confirm the growth story at Southend and show further growth in the energy division.
That said we are where we are with the market atm. Brexit uncertainty, trump and China together with other geo political issues, are having an impact on share prices. I did a quick check on the ftse 100 earlier today and 34 of the top 100 co's have suffered a 10% + fall in share price in the last month. In addition a number of others are close to this level too.
So whilst still a happy holder here, i'll pick up more, if overall market concerns provide such opportunities, and i'll remain a happy bunny lol.
supercharger - i am guessing you didn't read my reply to Nige's concerns too carefully.
I say this as your post started "you guys".
Your views and mine are actually in alignment here.
My reply to Nige was provided to indicate to him that i also felt he had little to concern himself as respects the potential rya pilot strike.
you'll note in my summing up, ( my final para. ) that i feel the interims report due out towards the end of Oct. will be very positive for the Energy and Aviation divisions.
I'm a regular poster with a positive and bullish view on STOB, as my posting history will confirm. I do of course take no offence, my friend, but do wish to confirm to you my long term belief in the STOB growth story lol.
Nige - i agree sub 1.10 is a buy in opportunity, and i will be back in for more trades, at those levels.
That said there are many geo political opportunities popping up at the moment, we are almost spoil for choice atm.
Turning back the proposed RYA pilot strike, i'm not too sure that it will have any material impact on STOB at Southend Airport, and in turn on the STOB sp.
Only 50% of RYA pilots are in the balpa union, and a portion of those that are in balpa, did not vote or voted against strike action, as such RYA expects many in that group to ignore the industrial action, particularly in view of recent staffing statements put out by RYA. In the past RYA has worked on drafting in pilots to cover such situations.
There have been a number of contributions on the RYA bb, on this subject.
You'll then have to calculate how many of the possible striking pilots are actually scheduled on flights in and out of Southend on the 22/23rd initially. You could check arrivals and departures for this Thur and Fri for a rough estimate of the actual number of flights that may be effected, as the flights are fairly stable day on day / week on week, but it seems lime a lot of work lol.
kiv Flights using eu pilots are not effected!
Customers will be frustrated with RYA and the unions not the uk airports, and over the years the markets seem used to such challenges in the airline sector.
Personally i'm looking at brexit opportunities in Oct, though for STOB, i'd look to get in on the back of any overall market uncertainty before the interims come out in late October, as i'd anticipate, strong performance figures for both the aviation and energy division.
Moniman - agree many uk companies, are being effected by geo political issues. similar to you on hfd, i bought into dom for a div / recovery play a few months back only to find myself 15% down, excluding divs.
The market is very jittery atm, any weakness on forward guidance in reporting and an sp takes a battering.
What with trumpy pumpy, and brexit uncertainty, i'm still holding back a small war chest of cash ready for some bargain basement opportunities that will imv , more than likely come our way, as this summer / autumn ends and we move to a winter of discontent !
Shall look to book a couple of short haul breaks this winter, to get away from all the political bluster, may even use Southend Airport, although Gatwick is much closer for me.
moniman - agree bur is on a bit of a roller coaster atm. i missed the bottom yesterday, as i took too long to do my research, by the time i had decided to buy it was on the rise again, and it was tough actually getting a live buy price so i finally git in at 5.20. i wondered overnight and this morning as this morning which direction it would take. Luckily the 12.45pm rns gave me the opportunity to close out at a decent profit, this afternoon. No doubt, many will ride the wave and make more than me, and good luck to them. Others, will be nursing heavy losses over there.
Like Volcano i follow your hfd and hvo plays. Do you still believe on hvo that we will see that transformational rns, to lift the sp from present levels ?
With hfd whilst the annual div is presently circa 18.5p, tbe sp has fallen from 2.40 to sub 1.80 since your recommendation on 17th May, which represents a fall in excess of three years divs. The div is now 10% plus at 1.80 which looks too high going forward at the present sp. I suspect hfd needs a good brexit outcome in terms of an eu trade deal, to recover from present levels. Will keep an eye on it as it getting tempting.
I'll try that link again lol:
Additional confirmation on the expected, and targeted passenger growth at Southend Airport for recent weekends, compared with last year.
consultant event reveals plans for an additional 3 block hotel.
aim is to have hotel up and running for customers by summer 2021.
STOB hope to submit plans to Southend Council, within the next six weeks.
If approved construction is planned to commence next summer and is estimated to take a year to complete.
The additional hotel accommodation is planned to support the increasing passenger numbers at Southend.
Tav - i agree Mr Tinkler's ongoing feud is unhelpful, its totally personal, i'm not sure he is concerned in anyway about the company and its staff and shareholders. This is about vengeance. He was removed from the bod, due to his own actions, and whilst as pi's we'll probably never fully understand the ins and outs of it. we do have the judge's statement about Tinkler's actions, which to me are very damaging to him both personally, and in his future business dealings.
What an 18 months we have had.
- industry headwinds / brexit concerns
- legal case
- Connect - Flyb t/o
Still the company progresses, at a pace towards it's targets in it's two main Energy and Aviation divisions.
It's a LTH for me with continued opportunities short term, to trade and top slice and add to my holding.
I'm guessing the agm will be fun, i'm guessing Cryus Capital having worked with the present bod on the Connect deal, and now holding a 5.80% shareholding will have a view on Mr Tinkler, and his disrupting actions.
Harrycash - your question on div cover.
It's worth remembering that in 2016 when Mr Tinkler was CEO, the company moved from its original 6p pa div, to the quarterly div payments, which reached 18p pa, but were funded largely by the sale of non core asests ( eg ESL )
This was always likely to be a short term boost to pi's we all did very well on an income return basis. It also helped push the sp up on the divs.
The bod have now reverted to the original div payouts of 6p pa, and are retaining the remaining non core assets. I like the £50m bond issue raised on the ESL holding this spring, to provide funds for planned 2019 expansion developments, ( full details on the company website ).
Looking forward, the company has provided its 2019- 2020 plans and targets for its Energy and Aviation sectors.
It has the cash funds, for its expansion plans from the bond issue, and the rebase of the dividend removes £44m of cash requirements from the business in this financial year.
wise owl - Should the STOB bod further develop Southend Airport into a 10m passenger pa airport, over coming years, with revenues hitting the bottom line, then all shareholders will benefit greatly.
Should the company then achieve a sale of the airport, at the figures mentioned, and in addition Warwick Brady has also increased his personal shareholding to the minimum required value under the scheme, then the bonus raised by Andrew Tinkler will be payable.
I remain of the view that Mr Tinkler being the CEO when the bonus scheme was created, in Dec 2016 has always been fully aware of its structure. As regards how it applies to Mr Brady, it needs to be remembered that, he was recruited, by STOB, to take the Aviation sector, forwards onto the next stage, due to his proven industry experience.
I believe its worth re reading Mr Tinkler's final chairman's report where he speaks so positively about his relationship with Mr Brady in their first 6 months together.
It's also worth re reading the details of the court case, to understand Mr Tinkler's misdoings which led the bod to take the decision to remove him from his position, a decision supported by the judge, in the legal case, it's also worth considering the judges comments about Mr Tinkler.
Imv Mr Tinkler's actons since his removal, speak for themselves, do they not ?
What will be will be, lets see how the agm pans out, all shareholders need to consider the wider picture here, it would be so easy to back the wrong horse.
Never a dull day with STOB
Klozza - a further thought for you.
The bonus scheme that Andrew Tinkler is using to muddy the waters was drawn up agreed by the bod and finalised in Dec 2016, whist he ( Andrew Tinkler ) was CEO at STOB.
Would you not consider that it would have been part of his responsibilities as CEO, to have ensured it was disclosed in the FY17 final accounts report delivered to the market on 11th May 2017.
After all it was agreed in H2, 2016 - 2017 trading year. Feel free to re read the finals for that year including his personal CEO statement on the year's performance.
Either he is suggesting he was not aware of bonus schemes drawn up under his watch, which i would suggest would be seen by some as possibly being derelict in his duties, and would perhaps have rendered him unfit to fulfil the role of CEO. Or he was fully aware of the scheme, which i see as more likely. Only later choosing to raise it with a view to create disharmony following his removal from the bod and the subsequent court case that he lost.
Klozza - are you saying your previous post regarding the LTIP was based on your personal frustrations and not on your knowledge of the scheme ?
I can understand frustrations being down on a position can be annoying, Timing is key and I've had to place a few positions in the bottom drawer in the past, most have come good in time though. I've not found bemoaning a trade on a BB as a constructive way forward to recover an investment, though everyone is different I guess.
Turning to your question regarding the timing of the original reward scheme for Southend Airport, it was finalized in Dec 2016, to secure Warwick Brady's appointment. Please don't take my word for it. Go to the main STOB website and read pages 58 - 65 of the FY19 final report.
BTW at the time the scheme was drawn up in Dec 2016, before Warwick Brady was appointed, what position do you think Andrew Tinkler held at STOB. Don't forget he was not replaced by Warwick Brady as CEO untill the AGM in June 2917.
Klozza636 - I'm guessing your last post relates to the 8th July rns.
Maybe it would be helpful to those that read this bb, if you were to offer your understanding, as to the terms attached to the LTIP.
In particular :
- the timeframe involved
- what has to be achieved by the bod for a 100% reward payout.
What would your expectation be for the STOB sp / mcap be at FY22 ( assuming delivery on both EPS and TSR at stretch performance ) ?
Tinkler is a bitter man, that much is clear.
However i doubt he is sitting on a loss - he got his shares at reasonable prices, and as many long term holders here picked up the short term quarterly increased divs, from the sale of non core assets. But that was always short term.
Tinkler was ousted from the bod.
Lost his court case against STOB, where the judge said that, in light of findings that the former boss ( Tinkler )had not acted in good faith and acted covertly in a way which was destabilising to the firm, the conclusion of the original court case was not only entirely justified but inevitable.
He now has to pay for 60% of STOB's costs relating to the legal case ( said to be circa £1M )
Tinkler still faces damages too !!
He has looked to destablise STOB at every and any opportunity, take his calamitous decision to buy into FLYB shares near to the end in an effort to halt the Connect deal - how much did he lose there ?
After the latest day in court, another brutal one for Tinkler he stated that it was time to move on !! Who believed that lol
I much prefer the recent STOB bod strategy with the bond raise against ESL shares, utilising the asset to fund 2019 expansion plans.
Tinkler fails to mention that the sp rose on the back of the short term divs. That the airline sector overall has been facing headwinds over the last 12 months or so, with the likes of EZJ /RYA suffering similar falls in sp. The market has been "on hold" for the Connect T?O imv, awaiting the EU confirmation( now passed ). Tinkler takes no ownership for the effects of his own actions, on STOB, which do not appear aligned to PI's interests, but demonstrate that he is hell bent on continuing his feud with the BOD, whatever the consequences.
The bonus scheme was drawn up before Warwick Brady joined STOB, who was head hunted for his experience in the airline sector. It should be remembered that its a prerequisite that Warwick Brady must hold shares in STOB to a value of 2X his annual salary to qualify for any bonus on the back of a long term sell of Southend Airport. So he has many more shares to buy. Or perhaps less if by achieving annual targets, the company prospers, and the sp rises.
I'd venture to suggest that Warwick Brady is very much aligned with PI's here, his success will be our success.
Can anyone provide a cogent argument to suggest that Tinkler, also genuinely has PI's interests in mind ?
Never a dull day with STOB