Member Info for Gerry65

Hi Birddog agree this trading yr is a second write off.

It's all about how much the Aviation Division bleeds over the next 8 months and whether the Energy Division gets back to pre covid revenue levels.

Spare a thought for the Luton County Council bail out debt levels to keep Luton Airport afloat and the poor council tax payers in that area. What cut backs will they have to make to other essential services.

G

Supercharger - agreed you only make money when you put it in lol.

I'm in FRES @ a 7.75 average and HOC where I'm slightly underwater, I think you've been in and out of both of those, so on some positions we agree, hey - we've all here to buy a share cheaply then hand it back to Mr Market for a profit.

I tend to hold the majority of my money in circa 18 - 20 FTSE shares, I've recently come out of a couple, having hit my price, though they've both continued northward without me lol. I only trade in more risky positions with around 5 -15 % of my portfolio usually just for fun.

Here as we stand we don't know the likely total number of shares that will be in issue. We've lost 30% of the Jewel ( Southend Airport ). The Energy Division is reported by the BOD to be some months away from Pre covid revenue streams. The Airline lease liabilities have to be met over the next 18 months, and the £50M bond matures in May 2024. Passenger numbers out of Southend during August / September will be difficult to judge, maybe someone will wish to track arrivals and departures. By October things tended to wind down at the Airport pre covid, so In opening up for limited flights I suspect this may not prove too cost effective over next 7 months.

But as you say never dismiss sentiment.

Gla

G

Hi Moni - 2 trading years effected by covid needs to be taken into consideration.

As you know I'm a great fan of both projects, and this has been one of my "go to" trades. Got to trade it to make money here. But not yet for me. Want to see how much confetti lands.

I've not taken a trade at all in 2021 and cleared out a load on the back of the delays around the off loading of the Airline.

Suspect I will have a little play here, but insure when.

G

Hi Jarule - we can't make recommendations on here, can result in a ban. We can provide opinions views and make statements about our own plans ( even though there is no proof of actions lol ).

I'm going to look for the right price for a day trade. It's my view that this won't be the last time the two divisions will need extra funding.

Kiv passenger nos hit 2.1m to Feb 2020.
Predictions were 2.8m to Feb 2021 &
And circa 3.4m to Feb 2022.

The Southend project has been set back 2 - 3 years. It will in my opinion prove itself as an airport over the next 5 - 25 years, but I now doubt ESKN have the capital base, nor cash flow available to overcome the lost covid years looking forward over the next 18 months.

It's high risk no doubt, opinions as to the upside will now be tempered by the amount of shares in existence. Even the most oppomistic need to call a potential Mcap then divide that value by the total no of shares to cone out with a reasonable share trading range.

G

TF - I remember saying to you - don't worry about the bond as they had 5 years to get to profit, and then deal with it. Unfortunately Covid has wiped out Stobart Air, leaving the liabilities and badly effected the Energy Division as well as reducing passenger nos at Southend to nil for many months.

In effect they've lost 2 years which they can't get back.

The latest raise will only take them so far down the road.

Could be good for trading but where will bank borrowing be by Feb 2023

GLA

G

Hi Birddog, got to agree Carlyle have positioned themselves perfectly. Sit on the sidelines with their "ring fenced" 30% stake.

Wait for the latest funding monies to be fully utilised.

Then pounce, picking up the control of the airport for a song. You could see a scenario where it would play into Carlyle's hands, if air travel struggled for another Summer season.

If not then ESKN will continue to fund the Airport's development, probably through the sale of non core assets or the Energy Division, creating value for Carlyle's initial 30% stake.

It all looks good for Carlyle whatever way it plays out over the next 12 - 18 months.

What is TOSCA's strategy here ?

G

Hi Kong - no probs mate, the truth of the matter was that Moni was anti STOB for a reason, he generally popped on when the sp was down, and that often seemed to me to be a good buying signal.

In truth when things were rolling along and the 3 original divisions were all trading. This one had pretty much 5 - 10 % daily / weekly swings and was great to trade.

The last 16 months have been grim, though. I know you've been here for some time, and you'll recall Birddog and I dissecting, the Airport accounts. They need some digging out and come on PFD's. For those believing there will be a quick turn round here check out the 2018 - 2019 and 2019- 2020, Airport accounts, they are a bit meaty but removing on off items you'll be able to access the passenger number required for break even. ( the logistics income will help to some extent ).

Day trading here once things settle down should possibly be undertaken with one's eyes wide open.

Got to love it here - one of my favourite bb's

gla

G

Hi Kong - well if my memory serves me right when I was taking as many day trades as possible Moni pitched in with a call for 5p.

That was before this latest round of confetti and even before the previous round of confetti last summer.

I calculated the Mcap at the time based on his view, and you and I could have probably clubbed to together and took it private at that figure lol

Sadly Moni never took a trade here either to my knowledge, that was where the money was. In and out and get you profits .

My view remains that I like both projects, though I suspect ESKN are under capitalised to see through the Airports development. Can see them selling the Energy Division, to plough more into the Airport if they have enough time, and cash ( allowing for the Airline liabilities and the Bond ). But I suspect both asset are likely not to be in ESKN's hands within 2 - 3years.

Great for trading though. May many planes fly from Southend for many years to come - sometime in the future.

Never a dull moment here.

Gla

G

TF -agree don't expect the latest cash raise to last too long. This summer won't see many flights out of Southend. Just to remind folks on here that in the August of 2019, when things were looking positive, we were averaging 50 - 75 flights in and out a day.

Am guessing the BOD would want to stay in place, and see it through to the sale of the Energy Division.

If they can keep costs down for another 10 months, it might be ready for sale. But what would happen then, clear the borrowing built up / put monies aside for the Airline liabilities / clear out the bond / put the remainder into the Airport.
At that stage - ESKN will only have 70% left.

Still wonder as I guess you do too, what TOSCA's strategy will be - surely they won't let the assets drift away ?

Hey got to love this Company, its been quite a ride over the last 2/3 years.

Gla

G

Hi Jarule - 900m shares@ 50p + a Mcap of £450M
Yes two assets on the plus side but on the minus side - Stobart Air liabilities and the £50m bond.
I suspect Cashflow will continue to bleed over coming months . When will the Biomass division be in a position to support the Airport
Interims out Nov will tell us nothing, they will report up till 31st Aug. Full yr end accounts are 10 months away, that's a lot of time for PI's to get nervous.
Hell I'm positive on both projects, but covid has crushed ESKN just when it was set to move forward, its been a challenging time.
As Birddog mentions - I've no doubt Southend will do very well over the medium to long term, but it still requires further infrastructure spend.
I suspect the Energy Division will ultimately be sold off to raise cash to further develop the Airport.
The problem for ESKN going forward is that whilst the Airport s a fantastic project, it is costly, and ESKN is working from a very small capital base.
It needs someone with deep pockets, to complete the project.
Once the dust has settled from the latest issue of confetti - I'll be looking for more in and out day trades.

Never a dull day here.

Gla

G

Hi Jarule - what will 40p x the new total no of shares make the Mcap ?

How do you calculate the value in that potential figure.

Not a loaded question- I'm just trying to judge sentiment when looking to do a few day trades when this fInds its new trading range.

Cheers

G

Cheers

Interesting placing price in the after hours rns - not unexpected

Never a dull day here.

Gla

G

Hi Supercharger _ I've no doubt Southend will flourish long term, it has some compelling benefits. ( who will ultimately own it and benefit is another question ).

The immediate issue is cashflow for ESKN. Much depends in the short term on the "survival cash raise".

Surely not long now until info on banking restructure and equity raise.

Will ESKN get the raise off in full - they struggled last time, and that was before 2 wipe out summers for the airport.

The price of the raise will be known soon too.

Should be fun.

Gla

G

Hi Jarule - tbh I have no idea where the highs or lows for the sp will be over the coming months.

I'll side on the sidelines until after the equity raise - will wait until this finds a trading range. At 20p i'm only looking for 1p moves to pick up 5% on a day trade.

I suspect Doris has scuppered holiday travel for UK citizens with his bonkers decision to delay acting on the Indian variant - lets call it the Doris variant.

He's not to clever on foreign trade is he - now he has the spiffing plan to export his Doris variant to the whole world "tariff free" through "Brits on Tour".

Regrettably he overlooks the fact that trade deals need to be signed off by both countries. Many will have very fluid restrictions and policy changes, based on our R rate and cases per 100000.

The airlines will get planes flying, but perhaps not with Brits on them. Focusing on LSE, I wonder whether the cost of getting the airport up and running for a small number of summer flights, will be more costly, than leaving it logistics only till next spring.

Hey only my view, others may be more positive.

G

Jarule - if the sp keeps dropping it looks like a raise at 20p will be challenging, your figure of 18p, for the offer looks more likely.

Even if they can get it off at 20p to raise £40m that'll be an additional 200m shares, taking the overall no. up to 831m shares.

Last time did they not struggle with the open offer, and that was at 40p, before the failure of the Airline, and another full year of covid.

Worth considering that at an sp of 30p with say 831m shares that creates a Man Cap of circa £250M, which all would agree can't really be justified on income / cashflow. On an asset value its generous too atm, balancing 2/3 of LSE plus the Energy Division plus the non core assets, against the Airline liabilities ( £82M ) and the bond (£50M ).

We have around 8 months of this present financial yr to run. Not sure how long £40M of cash and a £20M Bank facility will last, if the Energy Division revenues don't pick up. Need those gate fees.

See a worse case situation if covid continues to impact the Aviation Sector where Carlyle keep funding the airport through these difficult times, and in the end ESKN could become a minority owner or purely an operator of the Airport.

LSE will be fine as the years pass, but who will own it is another matter.

G

Hi Supercharger - in the days before covid I used to track the arrivals and departures using -

www.southendaurport.com - under departures and arrivals. I used to punch- southend airport arrivals into Google and up it came.

Sadly no info is showing yet on the website for passenger flights in and out.

Suspect they'll get it up and running soon.

G

Tav i tend to agree. I've returned to cash from a number of terrific Spring / summer 2020 covid bargain buys.

I've held on to my ULVR / BA. / BBOX buys, but cashed in others.

All in all my portfolio looks more balanced, than 16 months ago.

i'll look for any day trade opportunities this summer, but i believe this Doris experiment does have a chance of backfiring.

Atm no other country with our R rate and cases per 100000, is easing restrictions, as we are. I'd suggest we are guinea pigs for the western world. All eyes will be on how fast covid cases rise in the coming weeks.

I will look for a FTSE trading range of 6500 -6800 in the autumn as an opportunity to pick up quality shares at a discount to present prices.

If it goes the other way, and works out for the country, then i'll be delighted. I'm just not looking to leave money on the table in more riskier positions, over the next couple of months , and risk losing all my recent gains.

G

Hi Volcano - i see 20p as a nice round number too. The sp is drifting towards that level.

They need to come to agreement with the banks soon on new borrowing otherwise they won't be able to get the cash raise off at 20p

G

Hi Volcano - At what price do you think they'll manage to get the up and coming equity raise monies.

Wonder if it'll be fully taken up, this time around.

Moni may still get his 5p entry yet lol.

Once the dust has settled we'll have to look for day trades if they present themselves.

As for foreign travel this summer, it looks like a case of sentiment meeting reality. Many will want to take a break, but with tests required for the whole family prior to leaving the UK , and the R rate and daily cases shooting up, who'll take the chance ?

G

Hi Tav - how are you not chatted for a while. He actually hasn't got a foreign holiday booked. I don't know anyone who has for this year. I've moved mine on again to 2022.

I just put it out there, as I see the Doris re opening as a potential problem to some sectors , travel being one of them. Predicted covid cases we are told will inevitably rise. I kinda knew the answer to my question. Even double jabbed no flying when one has covid.

Think last night we were at 30000 cases a day. For a family of 4 it would only need one person to catch covid to scupper the family holiday.

This summers holiday season will likely be wrecked fir Brits because of the Doris ( Indian ) varient. Well done Doris.

Only 3 months till October, don't see many flights in and out of LSE from Oct - March.

G