Member Info for Gerry65

Volcano - EMG has been on a lovely run - looks like it broke 1.50 again earlier today before a little profit taking.

I bought back into SGE again today @ 5.74, hoping for a little run up to it's ex div day on the 14th. next Thursday. hoping to see 6.00 next week - we'll have to see.

With STOB the latest Richard Griffiths top up is interesting, must be an expectation there that the Stobart Air sale will come to pass. No news yet though, and the days pass by.

gla

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Darren Buffer - nothing wrong with taking some profits off the table. STOB is one if those shares that's very likely to offer another trading opportunity in the very near future

Gla

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Those of us buying at Sub 20p and upwards in early Nov. seem to have done ok. Notvtoo shabby at all in fact.

Some deffo sitting on very nice paper profits.

Did require putting hands over ears here and singing blah blah blah to drown out the less than positive views from those with a glass half full view.

Strange how the ADFVB chat is much more positive.

Richard Griffiths continues to add.

I've not changed my strategy, buying on dips and day trading.

We still await news on a Stobart Air sale.

gla

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HNY Volcano, yep STOB moving up alongside another beaten up cyclicals.

The ADFVN chat is far more +ve than in here, though I'm not sure, if they are mainly dip buyers, as there is no discussion around the key short term challenge for the BOD here, namely to find another new home for Stobart Air asap.

Still glass half full or glass half empty, it has to be said that STOB still offers short term trading opportunities.

Gla

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HNY Volcano, yep STOB moving up alongside another beaten up cyclicals.

The ADFVN chat is far more +ve than in here, though I'm not sure, if they are mainly dip buyers, as there is no discussion around the key short term challenge for the BOD here, namely to find another new home for Stobart Air asap.

Still glass half full or glass half empty, it has to be said that STOB still offers short term trading opportunities.

Gla

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Birddog - I feel I play with a straight bat here, I tend to work with info that is reported and out there in the public domain.

I'm certainly looking towards 2021 for STOB with eyes wide open ! That said I wonder if on occasions, my belief in the long term potential at Southend and the long term future for the Energy Division, can get wrapped up in peoples minds, with the financials at STOB, and how one may wish to play it on any given day.

I've always traded it, and built up free top slice shares, It's not somewhere I've wished to park long term funds, so yes I hold shares though probably a lot less than many here.

Talking of playing with a straight bat I recall posting on here back at the time of the Connect consortium, that STOB had managed to de risk it's balance sheet when passing Stobart Air across to Connect. I am pretty sure I flagged the potential risk first on here when like a "rubber ball" Stoabrt AIr, bounced back to STOB, earlier this year. So in effect my warning of the potential issue was out there, should anyone have wished to read, my musing.

To my mind one can remain balanced, whilst holding a "glass half full" outlook on the two chief projects here. Whether STOB will be the ultimate owner of the projects 5, 10, 20 years down the line, is of course a separate issue.

I'm awaiting your cogent appraisal of the yr end 2020 Southend Airport Accounts, when they become available.

In all honesty, without you Truth, offering your insight here I probably wouldn't be posting myself, though I expect Moni will reappear to provide some" Xmas cheer" should the sp fall to sub 20p lol

All the best mate.

G

Hi Birddog - You've mentioned before that you have long given up any hope of recovering your investment in STOB.

To date, I can't recall any of your 41 posts being anything than "glass half empty". I'm not sure of your average, though I suspect you'd need a 5 bag from here to break even.

May I ask, very politely, in view of all the info you kindly provide to the debate, mainly to the downside, on both the financials at Southend and the lease issues with Stobart Air, what piqued your interest for you to take a position here ?

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Truth - I'm seeing our latest discussions on Carlisle Airport, as something to pass the time whilst we await any news on a potential sale of Stobart Air, which I see as a key hurdle, for the BOD to overcome. With Stobart Air sold then STOB has a fighting chance to get the Energy Division up to a level that will allow a decent sale price. With Stobart Air hanging around the drain on cashflow may well result in a need for perhaps an extra £50m of funding raising - at 20p a share we'd be looking at what another 250M shares sloshing around. More if a placing came at sub 20p.

Turning back to Carlisle, STOB have developed Eden Park, and receive the rents atm.

I'm guessing you will feel that the latest Govt funding is not money well spent though - what is it - £8m is perhaps better spent though than some Govt gifts that have been uncovered this year !!

https://cumbriacrack.com/2020/11/24/carlisle-lake-district-airport-to-receive-up-to-8-million-grant-to-support-recovery-after-coronavirus/

I'll take any factual local knowledge you may feel is useful to share. Opinions I welcome too - provided they are presented as such, my friend.

Btw do you have any up to date figures of the occupancy levels at Eden Park ?

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Truth - I'm going to drag you back to your statement that you posted here, before the weekend.

"No passenger flights from Carlisle in our lifetime"

You've now confirmed that this is your view based on your brain and what your calculator tells you.

As I've mentioned to you, your own personal views will likely as not have no material effect on what actually happens at Carlisle over the next 20 - 25 years.

The fact remains that funding in the way of grants has been provided, and this suggests to me the local authorities, do want to see passenger flights. ( that is the extend of my knowledge here ).

I'm just struggling to understand how you can be so sure this will not happen, despite the funding provided that demonstrates support.

So sure you are that you posted on this bb that "I have some experience in the industry and I am quite happy to tell you Carlisle airport will not carry passenger aircraft in our lifetime"

I'm taking it you have no insider info on this, I'm guessing your personal view may have lead you to over egg your view.

As to what the future holds for STOB ( and that's deffo up for cogent discussion lol ), I'd suggest that we should allow matters to pan out and see what the future holds for Carlisle over the coming decades my friend.

Have a great eve.

G

Hi Truth - I'm guessing you felt the the £4.75m Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership grant used to improve the runway and terminal. was not money well spent.

Why are the "powers that be" in your neck of the woods, prepared to throw, money at Carlisle Airport, sure STOB weren't complaining.

Its funny thing - in this world many projects that someone personally feels are not worth the time effort and money, often receive support and financial backing.

Not a great issue one way or another for STOB, but I suspect, that should we return to normal times, the "powers that be" will still want to see passenger flights in and out of Carlisle. Perhaps you should send them your calcs. from your trusty calculater lol.

Still no news on the Stobart Air sale.

gla

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Truth - do you have any factual statements from those that will make the long term decisions on passenger flights in and out of Carlisle, that the previously held desire has been reversed.

I mean something out there in the public domain, stating that the airport and / or the authorities have abandoned ongoing future passenger flight plans and perhaps that all slots have been cancelled, both now in the present and indeed in the future.

If they have I'll be honest to say I missed that piece of news.

Some facts or statements already out there in the public domain that you feel you can re post here for the few among us that look in here can read on the subject.

Or is your statement based on your own personal opinion.

Could you clarify things, if you would that would be very helpful.

Take care mate - have a great weekend.

G

Truth how well do you think STOB did out of the warehousing developments, on the adjacent land, think we may have discussed this ( perhaps more times than we'd both care to admit over the last 18 months since you first posted here in Aug 2019 ).

Truth when was the last Loganair passenger flight out of Carlisle- wasn't it earlier this year ?

I'd continue to suggest to you that the "powers that be" up in your neck of the woods, have an aspiration for passenger flights, ( perhaps subsidised ).

No matter how illogical it is to you, and perhaps it is, i'd suggest that your definitive statement, may be a little premature.

A lifetime depends on ones age I guess. I'm hoping for another 25 - 30 years, if i'm lucky ( very lucky ).

So are you sticking your neck out to say deffo never another passenger flightin or out of Carlisle between now and say 2045 - 2050 ?

gla

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Have you got

Truth - Your statement regarding Carlisle Airport that you feel there is "no chance of passenger flights in our lifetime " is a little glass half empty.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I felt it only fair for balance to mention to the few that read this bb, that loganair had recommenced limited passenger flights back in July 2019. These were grounded like most flights by Covid, earlier this year.

Atm there are no immediate plans to reinstate flights i agree.

I accept you do live under a permanent "rain cloud" regarding anything Carlisle Airport, related, and whilst I wouldn't comment on initial profitability of routes in place from July last year, it does seem that the powers that be in your area do have a long term desire for passenger flights from your local Airport.

With that in mind, however much you disagree with the logic I suspect that sometime in the future these will recommence. I have no idea as to timeframes.

Still no news on the Stobart Air sale.

gla

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Truth - saw details of the 7,000 sq metre amazon Longtown centre, in the summer.

Am assuming from your post this morning that the Amazon warehousing jobs being advertised at Carlisle Airport relate to the Longtown delivery centre.

https://www.totaljobs.com/jobs/amazon-warehouse-operative/in-carlisle-airport

Good to see Amazon setting up there.

https://www.itv.com/news/border/2020-02-03/online-giant-amazon-to-open-warehouse-in-cumbria

Thames Gateway - Teeside International Airport -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teesside_International_Airport

gla

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BD - agree with you on Amazon and covid, in terms of the increase in it's business.

Shall watch progress here with interest.

Key short term for Stob is to lose Stobart Air.

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Hi BD - everywhere else being up to quota, is that why Amazon have been linked to an expansion into Carlisle Airport ?

Not sure if that has legs or was just on the rumour roundabout.

All a bit clock and dagger, regarding Amazon deals little real info out there on the long term agreement at Southend.

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Birddog - agree the night shift Amazon flights are close to maximum- though that's a good thing from a glass half full perspective. Ref. Your point on road connections have you any views on why Amazon chose Southend in the first place.

Gla

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https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/stobart-air-sale-talks-at-advanced-stage-with-suitor-39846563.html

Could be just a re run of old info, though Independent.ie has been very close to matters relating to Aer Lingus.

The disposal of Stobart Air is key part in de risking legacy issues.

Let's see.

Gla

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Volcano - just looked at EMG - see its dropped down to around 1.16, will see where it settles going into the weekend for a look at it Monday.

You did well to take your profits on UU. it looks like it may drift down into my buying range again over coming weeks - £8 - £8.50, we'll have to see.

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Volcano - have been tied up for most of today, have been waiting for the exchange of contracts on a second property I've sold in the west country, received confirmation late morning. Seem to have been on the phone to Solicitors, estate agent, utility co's and removers all day.

I did a small trade on CPI, but, looks like I'm down a penny there, rumour into a red day, over there - so down atm.

Am just sitting down to see what has happened in the market, I'm still holding those SGE shares, need to decide if I should clear out for the weekend. That said they have gone northwards on a red day.

Still anything could happen over the weekend, and it often does lol.

G