Member Info for Gerry65

I'm not going to speculate here, TF, too much uncertainty, the BOD to need to secure a sale of Stobart Air, asap, I know that both you and I have understood the issues here since it bounced back into the balance sheet.

Looks like we will continue to watch and chat about events as they pan out over coming months. As you say on worst case protections more funding may be required.

I've no doubt STOB will offer up loads of future opportunities for us to debate. Lol.

G

Hi TF - To me the original buy in to Connect made sense at the time as part of the deal involved STOB dropping Stobart Air into Connect helping to de risk the STOB balance sheet at that time.

Regrettably on the demise of FLYB Stobart Air returned like a rubber ball ( a £55m rubber ball + associated lease liabilities ).

It's sale to me remains key, think you said dump it for a £1 if possible a little while back lol.

The tender process adds more uncertainty, but a decision will be made by the end of the year I believe.

The actual figures for Much - Aug were a little better than I expected, based on info already provided by the BOD.

Yep the BOD indicate headroom facilities of circa £47m by Feb 2022. Noted the two potential covenant breaches, and the RCF renewal challenges by Jan 2022.

The BOD needs to ensure that the disposal of the £40m non core assets don't become a fire sale.

Shall tune into the Investor Presentation later.

All good here then - I'm "all in" - perhaps not lol !!

G

Hi Volcano - looks like the markets are factoring in a blue wave:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/forex-dollar-dips-as-investors-bet-on-biden-victory-vsx7a7a9ll85dcv.html

No money today for a "Lame Duck" President. I suspect the Democrats will hold the House of Representatives. The Senate is still up for grabs with the 35 seats up for election / re election.

I feel a Biden clean sweep will be the best outcome for both Democrats and Republicans over the medium to long term.

Looks like there is no money today for a new President, working with a minority in the Senate. Nor for a disputed result.

I'd be closing day trades this afternoon, to be safe, but I always look to reduce risk where I can.

We could easily see the FTSE hit both 6000 & 5000 between now and the Spring, its great fun for trading.

Think the EU / UK are both dragging their heels awaiting the US result. If we have a full on Blue Wave I'll watch with interest as Doris looks to secure a trade deal with the US. What we do know is that whatever it looks like a deal with the US will be "World Beating" lol emmm !

Am going to watch as much of the US election as possible this evening - then straight into STOB's half year figures, which should be grim ( Mch - Aug ). Hopefully info on Sept - Oct Energy Division performance, and actual figures for Logistics income from Southend. Then straight into the 9.30 Investor Presentation.

gla

G

CARR - that was a good trading share for me in 17 / 18 / 19 - looked to buy in when it fell into the low 1.30's, usually it picked up quickly and gave a nice return.

G

Hi Moni - it's not ideal for the travel industry overall. I've just finished reading the ABF rns this morning with projections for lost revenues during the latest lockdown. Non essential high street based retail looks like it's going to take another hit, alongside several other sectors.

Within the travel sector I do see consolidation coming during 2021 - 2022. Think I posted previously that the planes will still be there as will the airports throughout the world, as we emerge from the Pandemic, whenever that is. It's possibly more a question of who will ultimately own the businesses.

Strangely the extension of the furlough scheme should actually help STOB, there were pretty much no passenger flights out of Southend planned for November, so the continued Govt funding of staffing costs is a useful bonus.

To continue to receive the furlough support during the low volume winter period is a bonus. It wouldn't surprise me to see further Lockdowns between now and March. If furlough schemes are continued in line with Lockdowns that will help STOB seems to me it could be better off being under full lockdown with furlough support, as there is unlikely to be any real passenger revenue over the coming 3/4 months.

Should be an interesting week, am planning on staying up to watch the US election, then straight into STOB's half year figures on Wednesday morning.

Gla

G

I got my eye on TATE again - its a regular place to go for me sub £6.20. Also watching SMDS - anything around £2.70 - £2.75, and SN. I like down at these levels, for the longer term, together with LGEN at sub £1.80.

To be honest there are dozens of attractive looking positions,but will they look even more attractive after the weekend, we'll have to see.

It's only a few trading days until the US Election if the result is disputed or is too close to call, or even perhaps if the GOP loses the Senate., any uncertainty could offer up some opportunities. Will have to wait and see, I don't want to see any short term recovery tomorrow though.

I still think its best to take profits off the table with shares like NCYT, when trading it earlier in the year, and it broke £2 then £5 those were both represented excellent returns. Yep it's doubled again, but I would suspect that most traders have been in and out taking profits and going again. Only the brave will have held throughout its rise, but if they did then well done them.

G

Hi Volcano - it wouldn't surprise me. Those that traded the run up from March 23rd maybe through to mid August, should have done pretty well.

I've got cash ready for next week and beyond. Any non conclusive outcome for the White House next week should or could produce uncertainty. Hopefully good for trading.

Depending on how Doris and his team handle the next stage of the pandemic further opportunities could present themselves over coming months.

G

I see Heathrow posted a £1.5 Bn loss for the first 9 months of the year, that was a bit of an "ouchy". Feel Southend could well find itself well placed to offer a low cost / high quality service. I believe short haul holidays flights will come back in board more quickly than long haul.

G

Morning TF yep that looks like the plan though not sure there are any other options.

Think it may be a case of hunkering down today, looking like a red one. I still feel we may see the FTSE drop back down to the 5000 level over coming weeks and months.

Am wondering why STOB decided to release their half year figures right next to the US election results.

Looks like the Democrats will hold the house of representatives, The Senate really does look up for grabs, think of the 35 seats up on the 6 year rolling review 23 are republicans.

Be gridlock if Trump survives and the Democrats control both houses. Similarly if Biden gets in and the Gop hold the Senate more gridlock. Feel maybe a Democrat clean sweep will be best for the US, strangely it may also be best for the Gop, in the long run too.

As I see it most outcomes will make it very difficult for Doris to get his US deal. Surely he could have seen this coming !

I remember a great speech by Ken Clarke in the Commons right in the middle of the Brexit debate when he spoke on the back of his years of experience, about the difficulty of securing trade deals with the US. - 50 states, a President 2 houses and varies lobby's to contend with and satisfy - Should be fun to watch it pan out lol.

G

STOB needs to focus on maintaining firm cash control. With the Energy Division gradually returning to 2019 - 2020 revenues, strong cash generation will resumed for 2021 - 2022. ( I'm parking 2020 ), Providing limited capex is required as the business has matured this will filter through to the bottom line.

At Southend we have been provided with the monthly cash burn with nil passenger flights, the interims will hopefully show logistics income.

Should STOB manage to lose Stobart Air, then it may well be able sit and wait for a resolution of the virus issues ,for some considerable time, figures out next week may clarify to position.

What ever happens the Airport and planes will be there - its just a case of who in the longer term will own them.

I've been taking a look at the position at some of the other 5 "London Airports", if 2021 was a write of I'd not want to be living under Luton Borough Council, what a disaster that is turning out to be. At Stansted, the owners MAG have the triple whammy owning MAN, EMA & STN. London City Airport has had to park its investment programme. The losses at Heathrow and Gatwick are eye watering.

Hey it's not looking half so bad at Southend in comparison.

Whilst having every sympathy for those losing jobs, it will be interesting to see how the Sector comes through this over the coming months and years. I suspect present losses and holes in balance sheets, both for Airports and carriers will ultimately filter through to passengers, in terms of higher pricing longer term.

Gla

G

TF - Yep TOSCA topped up in June - but they also picked up a major holding at the beginning of the year before the pandemic hit the sector.

You may have a point regarding regional airports - Fortunately Southend is one of the London 6 Hub airports, if it's not maybe it won the 2019 award under false pretences ! - Copied the Which award details below for you and it deffo says "Best London Airport"

https://southendairport.com/news/ranked-best-airport-2019

Guess we'll have to wait to find out what Southend is worth, time will tell.

In the meantime STOB needs to maintain a weather eye on cashflow, uplift the Energy Division revenues, lose Stobart Air, and sit out the virus, like all other airports.

Do you not agree it's worth looking at the position at the other London Airports, for some comparison. Wouldn't want to be living within the Luton Borough Council, area, which has now lent Luton Airport over £400m and has lost the income, it normally receives from Luton Airport to balance it's spending requirements , also more Council loans to come there I believe. Bet they wish it had an Energy Division to fall back on - emmmm :

https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/news/politics/councils-ps60m-loan-luton-airport-company-approved-private-executive-committee-2974406

Did the council not say when it lent the last tranch of £60M that without this additional funding, LLAL could become insolvent and cease trading, council could then lose control of the airport, and the benefit of the income it generates altogether. Good grief !

So with the June placing STOB has cleared all Bank debt for the time being and reduced it's overdraft interest coss for the time being, in addition "M=medium to long term" Bond £50m funding interest costs are factored into cash flow projections.

Will happily present the position at other airports for comparison if required. My point is that the financial holes created by the virus issues in competitor London Airports, will have to be resolved and recovered, over coming years - in my view this will filter down to ultimately to customers.

G

Hi Moni - ( agreed - never use a sentence when a paragraph will do lol ).

Sorry mate - the STOB sp will likely move around a bit but i doubt anyone who has read your posts on this bb will ever believe you'll own STOB shares, we know / you know it'll never happen. Other may take opportunities when offered up - think I sit in that group.

What's the "crack" over on ORPH today - who are those "pesky" de rampers that you wish to starve of oxygen !

They are prob traders who having made a turn on the recent tick up, are looking to talk it down again, to get a re entry point, having sold out recently when it approached 30p.

I was going to pop over and lend you a hand with some thoughts and wisdom - not sure I'd be very helpful though lol.

Did you retain all your HVO shares on the t/o back in January ? Think you said you bought in at 24p again this month. So short term will we see 30p or 20p over there ?

G

TF - ah ah - I rambled on for so long I ran out of space.

To finish off for the present what I was saying was it's pointless to take a bet with you as you outline the BODs reported ongoing strategy.

Rails and Civils moved on - tick
Stobart Air next on the list - hopefully
Non core assets as and when
Energy Division in the medium term probably after a minimum of at least one full year of post virus related revenue delivery.

We will continue to chat meantime I'll consider and look for trading opportunities, to collect more "free shares". You never know if news comes on Stobart Air I may be tempted to take a longer term trade - maybe with a three - six month outlook, in addition to the ones I've collected over the years.

Still think 75p a share post Stobart Air could be a very attractive t/o position. Say £470m in total, to prise away Tosca's shareholding, picking up north of £200m for the Energy Division within say 18 - 24 months. Limited bank debt atm. Non core assets say bet. £30 - £40m - less your worrying bond £50m - that's roughly net £260 -£270m for the airport. Pre covid the 25% low ball offer inducted a valuation of circa £800m

Note you didn't put forward a different view. No doubt you will lol. Btw only speculation on my part, anything could happen here. Just a bit of fun !

So is the STOB sp in the teens a punt, a value trap or an opportunity. Who knows. Considering the limited no of posts here you may say - who cares ? Lol.

Off for a very wet walk.

Gla

G

TF - I rarely look in over the weekend but it's wet and windy out there I'm likely to get slightly damp on my morning walk.

Strangely we agree on so many areas but come at things slightly differently.

Agree bonds have annual interest costs for STOB these have been included in cash flow calculations. The bond matures in May 2924, the BOD know this as did it's bankers when they increased the two RCF's to £120m so did Tosca when it added to it's holding during the June placing. As you say it's a non - current liability. I know you understand that bonds are a very useful way for Co's to raise funds, for cap ex which is exactly what STOB have done, like pretty much the majority of listed Co's.

The reason I asked you to look at other airport owners financials and debt positions was for some degree of comparison, and balance. As I've mentioned before STOB are very fortunate to have the revenues from its Energy Division, I don't believe this is the case for other airport owners. Have you seen the position at Luton - the latest £60 council loan takes the amount Luton Airport now owes the local authority to £400m. The other airports are suffering similar losses as has been reported.

These losses will need to be recovered over coming years. Short haul will recover very quickly in my view, once effective airport fast testing systems are introduced and approved. There will be pent up demand for short haul holiday breaks in the Spring after a further 5 months of lock downs. I've re booked 2 holidays this year. I aim for 3/4 a year. I'll certainly be catching up when I deem it safe. Will be looking at 5/6 holidays next year if possible.

Southend may seem to be out on a limb to you from your prospective , up north lol. However it is part of the London hub and has massive potential. I have not used the airport as I live closer to Heathrow and Gatwick but I have used Luton and Stanstead both once any only once, sorry but they were not for me.

Southend is low cost to carriers, and I suspect it will prove attractive once again once the sector can resolve present issues. All London Airports will have to assess how they are going to recoup and repair the financial costs of the virus over coming years, would you not agree it's likely that this will ultimately filter down to the future passenger's ? I'd suggest to you that comparatively speaking ( size of losses / passenger no's / financial costs / loss per passenger no's) STOB and Southend may weather this far better than other London Airports particularly as it has an additional source of revenue.

It's only a personal view, and one which you are welcome to disagree with, but I think Southend will find itself well positioned as planes start to fly again. There is no doubt it wins awards year on year for its passenger experience, it has railway station with swift access from London.

Don't understand what you are saying re Cyrus - sorry.

It would be pointless taking a bet with you w

lol TF - yep you did - intangibles now halved.

Bank debt repaid from placing funds ( soon to be utilised again )

Carlisle - a side show, as we've debated time and time again.

Dividends were paid from the sale of non core asset sales, I should know I received most of them lol Don't forget if STOB had held onto it's ESL holding rather than selling it down over the years divs would not have been paid and its value in the books would have needed a major write down. Very fortunate for STOB you could almost suggest they saw it coming lol.

Agree - the present team have tackled many of the "Tinkler" legacy issues. The sale of Stobart Air if it comes to pass will substantially de - risk the balance sheet, it will be a real positive for STOB and its ongoing cashflow, and additionally make well make it super attractive for a t/o bid - only my speculation.

Turing to corporate bonds - did you have a figure as to how many will come up to maturity for Co's across the FTSE 100 / FTSE 250 / Small cap between now and STOB's does in May 2024 ?

What was your view on my question regarding weather the owners of Heathrow / Gatwick / Luton / Stanstead have bonds outstanding ? How do you think their trading figures will look for 2020 ?

The decision by Cyrus to take FLYBE out of administration is interesting, I suspect there will be consolidation within the sector.

Make sure you tune into the Second Investor Presentation.

gla

G

Ah Ah Ah Moni - just a little pure speculation from me and why not lol.

Do you think you might read the interims RNS or listen in to the 2nd investor presentation. Emmm.

Sorry for the latest bunch of typos from me - stubby fingers and rushing to get to the gym

Keep up the good work knocking back those unbelievers over on AVCT and ORPH.

G

Interims out 4th Nov. Interesting that the BOD is to hold a further " investor presentation" so close after the previous one.

With limited passenger flight income from Southend in the period March to August, hopefully we will be able to see the income generated from the logistics operations. Some management info on Energy performance for Sept / Oct will be helpful.

Perhaps an update on the sale of Stobart Air.

The Aviation Sector is likely to see considerable restructuring over the next 18 months. Some carriers may go to the wall, but the planes will still be there.

Look at Cyrus looking to take FLYBE out if administration, we don't have the figures yet if the deal goes through they will make interesting reading.

If Cyrus wants a carrier perhaps it might want an Airport ( only speculation Moni & TF lol ). It would probably have to pay 75p a share to prise away Tosca's holding. So say somewhere around £450 - £480 m for the whole Co. Which may become all the more attractive if Stobart Air is sold. A further plus for any potential buyer is that STOB presently has next to no debt. If you believe the RNS info rather than Moni.

Emm say £450m with the potential of a £200m windfall from the sake of the Energy Division within the next 18 - 24 months, add in the non core assets sales at £30 - £40m then knock off £50m for the bond TF

Net s out at somewhere around £260 - 270m plus for an airport worth £800m basis on the 25% stake offer prior to the pandemic. Deffo bargain territory to me lol ( but just speculation lol ).

Feel waiting for news of the disposal of Stobart And is a bit like playing chicken here. Is a buy sub 20p a punt a value trap, or an opportunity to good to miss.

Discuss lol

G

TF - will leave you to continue to fret about the bond maturing in may 2024.

Your initial concerns last year proved unfounded as I explained to you, which you kindly later acknowledged.

I guess if originally STOB had offered say 20% of the Energy Division as underlying security ( with agreement from those providing RCF s ) then it's very likely this would ever have hit your radar.

As I've suggested the majority of bonds are replaced by new bonds on maturity. If STOB actually wished to remove such a line of credit it could use the monies from the proposed sake of non. Core assets, or a small proportion of the monetized sale of the Energy Division,as at least two further options.

Atm we have Moni unable to accept that STOB has its funding in place with the business trading in line with cashflow forecasts and you with you long term focus on the bond. Both of you suggested 20p as your buy in price recently, but neither took up that option, hey ho. Lol.

Btw how many of those Co's in the FTSE100 / FTSE250 / Small Cap do you estimate have corporate bonds in place ?

How many of these mature before May 2024. Indeed how many mature before the year end ?

Whilst considering the challenges to the Aviation Sector, have you any details of bonds due to mature from the owners of London's other major airports. How do you think 2020 has hit the trading figures for the likes of Heathrow Gatwick Luton and Stanstead.

Fortunately STOB it's Energy Division as a back up. It remains my personal view that with vaccine / testing solutions short haul holiday demand will pop. Its purely my own speculation - but speculation remains the main source of comment on this bb.

Gla

G

Moni - all i do is reply to your posts. mainly when you appear mis - guided on stuff like cash burn / RCF availability.

As i said earlier - let's come back to such topics in the late Spring / early Summer, depending on how things pan out.

BTW - keep up the good work firing back at those with a "glass half full" view over on AVCT, appreciate that mate, why shouldn't Alastair upgrade his house on the back of the SP growth, after all it's a share that has been extremely kind to many of us during 2020.

I see over on ORPH that " BlahBlahDoh" can't spell your name right - it's Moni not Moany lol.

Got to admit I've very much cut back posting on bb's where I'm invested, it's all too often the case that someone will pop up with an agenda based "Doom and Gloom" view.

Seems you've had to deal with quite a lot of that on both the AVCT & ORPH bb's. I'm still holding some "Golden Tickets" on one - not on the other though.

Currently I'm holding just north of 20 long term positions, and a further 5 short term trades, to me - little said on these bb's has any material effect on the Co. concerned, they are just a platform for debate.

That said - there are a number of posters I respect where they have previously demonstrated to me that they research well and know their stuff. I do tend to follow them, it makes sense to me.

G

Moni - Feel free to name one member of any "fan club" please - pretty please my friend, I'm feeling you are living in some sort of "twilight zone".

It's all in your mind lol.

Don't worry - I'm totally confident you'll never fall into any spell here "real or in your imagination".

We both know - you'll never buy here, it would stick in your throat.

Your "personal view" on cashburn / financial pressures / cash reserves, which we have debated in previous discussions over the last couple months have been proven to be - lets be kind to you "misguided" by the recent trading update RNS and the Investor Presentation.

So what do you do - you wait a couple of weeks and churn it out again lol, emmm ! ( Groundhog Day )

You can't change the facts STOB got its funding in place, it has provided cash projections, for the coming months.

Where the sp sits is one thing, to some it may look like a value trap to others an opportunity, that's down to each individual.

I suspect we will be shooting the breeze here for months and years to come.

Things up for future debate:
- the interims out next ( won't read well )
- the sale of Stobart Air ( if it comes to pass )
- Updates on the recovery of the Energy Division
- The new name for the Co.
- Any positive vaccine or testing news
- Ongoing Tier 2 Govt support if Southend moves into that category, in the coming weeks

Maybe come back and visit cashflow projections / cash burn sometime next spring or summer. But not now when STOB have pretty much all of their two RCF's totaling £120M available.

Have a great evening

G

Moni - it is what it is - as with many businesses atm.

I've no real skin in the game here all my shares have come from top sliced profits on many trades as you know.

I dont place any value on my STOB shares they cost me nothing I've merely collected them through trading.

I've no agenda and generally only post in response to you TF and a couple of others.

Again it strikes me that you actually have some strange belief that our debates on here have any influence on one the sp and secondly the decisions of others.

Surely nobody would buy or sell on the views of any posts on a bb especially where there is an agenda in play.

All views are welcomed, on which debates can be held
This bb is a bit of fun, there are probably less than 20 people who have posted here in the last few months.

I think I said this morning I agreed with nige that it would be a punt. I also said it's a recovery play. Much as depends on virus solutions for the aviation sector I don't believe anyone could see it differently.

These are all areas I have covered with you before on many occasions and I suspect I'll do so again and again in reply to anticipated future posts from you my good friend.

I hold I belief that in the next 2 / 3 / 4 years planes will be flying again and that it won't be beyond the wit of man to resolve the issues caused by this current virus. In the meantime STOB continues to follow through on its corporate plans. The funding is in place. The Energy Division is moving forward again.

I have no knowledge of how many carriers may fail if the situation is prolonged. But the planes don't disapear. They will he picked up by other carriers probably on the cheap or in the case of Flybe ways will be found to restructure businesses.

I fear that week on week month on month, I'll be responding to your gleeful posts, no sure how our little chats on here will ever help you deal with your FLYB investment that is truly down to you to deal with in whatever way works for you. I genuinely hope you can find some closure though.

May all your future investment decisions work out well for you my friend.

G