Member Info for Gerry65

TF - I recall your concerns around the Bond some 12 months ago when we must have posted dozens of times to each other over it following the challenges incurred by ESL. You will recall your concerns at that time proved unfounded, as I said they would prove to be. This was confirmed by RNS.

Yes May 2024 will eventually come to pass, at that time the bond may well be restructured, that's often what comes to pass - is it not ?

The majority of this future debt / liability is covered by non core assets, and at this point in time it's really is a side play, I terms of issues here, at present.

Interesting news you gave on the unit at Carlisle, you are closer to the ground up there - do you have any more info ?

I'd rather STOB kept the Energy Division but it may well be that picking up north of £200m for it will be too attractive to turn down.

We both know there are many aspects to consider when attempting to value a Co. But looking at it from a NAV prospective, a case could be made to say that considering the present sp the market is only attaching a moninal valuation on Southend perhaps not as low as £1 lol.

That said just before the virus hit, based on the 25% potential buy in offer, a valuation of £800m was not unreasonable.

Therein potentially sits the upside here. Would you not agree ?

STOB deffo sits in recovery play territory. That's part of the fun here how it will pan out is up for reasoned debate.

BTW I've mothballed my bike for the winter, ( southern softy - I know ). Will be on the exercise bike in the garage until March 2020.

Gla

G

Moni - we've done the fan club thing, there were no takers, remember, no I guess not.

This bb has a few investors that post info and news on STOB. That's generally how it works. In addition there are a few non invested glass half empty posts, which are useful for balance.

Again as is your want, why not roll out one of your strange theories lol. If it helps you then no prob.

There have been legacy issues here most created by your "friend" and "fellow investor" in FLYB none other than the cabinet maker Tinkler. The present BOD have gradually worked through these issues, he was kicked out lost his court case cause major disruption. Then joined you in piling stacks of cash into FLYB, you both lost big time.

Perhaps if you'd read the RNS over there you wouldn't have lost your shirt ! I'm guessing he's sucked it up and moved on. Not sure you will ever find a way through to some level of acceptance - it's coming up to two years since your huge "punt" on FLYB. I know you struggle to accept your error in judgement over there and need to aportion blame. But surely two years on its time for you to let go my friend.

Both Branson and Cyrus, are beyond your reach, so you focus your attention on STOB You seem to revel in the challenges that STOB is steadfastly working it way through at present. I've never understood how this helps you. Whatever the future ho!ds for STOB, nothing that happens here will recover the money you lost. Don't get me wrong I do sympathise it was quite a considerable loss you incurred. My worry is that week after week probably for year after year, I'll look in here and one of your posts will pop up. May I ask Moni, if STOB didn't recover, and this bb wasn't available to you any more, how would it actually help you ? Truly my friend your road to some form of closure from your FLYB loss has to come from within. I genuinely hope you manage to find a way to some level of inner peace.

Nige posted yesterday that he felt STOB is a punt which may well be a fair assessment. The positives here are the amount of cash the present BOD raised, and the structured plan introduced for the next 18 - 24 months.

G

Nige / Birddog - I like the the Energy Division, which should return to previous revenue levels for 2021 onwards. With most set up costs completed and now in place following the previous years of capex requirements and with huge barriers to entry, there should be a decent bottom line contribution, in the next Financial year.

I'd prefer that STOB retained this division, though the BOD deffo wants to monetize it. Still lets see how it pans out. It's still what 18 - 24 months away, and they'll want at least a full year of decent revenues here before putting it up for sale.

Southend is the long term play, again - here previous capex has impacted on the bottom line - though the spend, on the airport was necessary to get it to where it is now. Birddog, fairly sure you were thoughtful as to where the future break even for the airport was in terms of passenger no's. I believe it was recently quoted at 2.5m pa.

We are where we are - STOB will produce pretty grim half Yr. figures in mid November - ( Mch - Aug ), some with a glass half empty here will no doubt play on these, though it's pointless as those following STOB closely already understand from recent RNS and the Investor Presentation the position.

We still have the US election in a couple of weeks, and the ongoing "lock down"debates here in the UK, so more fun to come. News on Stobart Air would be handy, and any positive vaccine news or an effective "rolled out" airport test system - Govt. backed would be a positive.

Though PI's have been trading shares in small volumes since the June placing, the Institutional Investors have held firm.

KIV - a substantial % of STOB shares and held tightly by the Institutional Investors, which I'd suggest is the reason STOB pops upwards on positive news.

gla

G

Moni - we agree on Pharma stocks, though when things kicked off earlier in the year you seemed to be a little wedded to ORPH.

Pretty sure you got into a bit of a debate with NCYT holders, early doors, seem to remember you stated NCYT was a "one trick pony" and that ORPH was "your play" Didn't you throw out one of your predictions for ORPH - £2 wasn't it ?

I have to say I spread my bets with AVCT / NCYT early doors, though I traded them both several times pocketing profits, I also dabbled with SNG / BVC / SAR, ( thx to Volcano for the BVC entry, as it wasn't on my radar at the time ).

I've still got my top slice chunk in BVC, and some still in AVCT and NCYT, though I ploughed quite a bit of my Pharma profits into cheap FTSE 100 opportunities at the time.

Think I've seen you posting on other pharma bb's, more recently, so I'm hoping you didn't get side tracked into a pure ORPH play, though its done ok. Hope you didn't miss out on some of the others - sure you didn't my good friend.

Again I'm sure you picked up on the early doors opportunities in Goldie's - mine were TSG / AAZ / HGM - though I got out of AAZ ( not at the top of the rise in Aug ).

There were great some tech plays, again my thx to Volcano for highlighting SPT . TF very much likes SCE, which has done very well for him and other investors. It's all good is it not.

G

Hi Moni - good to hear from you again. ( more thoughts form you on STOB's cash reserves - I see )

We chatted a little while back and I asked you to predict the cash and RCF available to STOB at the half year end ( 31st Aug ).

Regrettably you wouldn't play lol - So as you'll know I predicted £121 M ( £1m cash and the two RCF's totalling £120M ).

Guess what I was out by £2M !!- as confirmed by the 1/10/20 trading update - £119M.

How did i get so close, you must wonder, despite your previous worries re cash burn , which I dealt with as and when you threw them into the ring with "regular gay abandon", as is your want.

Let me remind you - I read the 4th June RNS, which I highlighted to you several times.

So considering you don't read or won't accept RNS's from STOB - I doubt you'll have read the 1/10 20 trading update, nor I'll assume did you sign on to listen in to the "Investor Presentation" on the 2nd Oct.

Much better for your strategy, here, my good friend is to let things lie for a couple of weeks then and roll out your "cash reserve" concerns once again - emmmm !

Perhaps if there are no solutions to Aviation, at all in 2021 or 2022, it might be that STOB would need to use some of the expected cash from the proposed sale of the Energy Division, to tie it over into 2023, buy we'll have to see.

gla

G

Hi Moni - good to hear from you. Looking at the airlines think it will be the survival of the fittest.

Of course they don't have a biomass arm like STOB. I did say back in June that getting the funding sorted early was key.

I'm still holding a chunk of cash on my trading account, still expecting to see the FTSE 100 to hit 5000 again sometime during the next few months. Only 15% to come off it after today's drop.

Loads of bargains to be had but timing will be key.

Gotta love these red days.

Gka

G

Hi Volcano - see there is an RNS this evening to confirm Richard Griffiths has taken advantage of the dip to top up to 4.31%.

The dip earlier this week now makes a little more sense- looks like he's managed to add, picking up shares perhaps from PI's lacking patience.

Guess he was comfortable with the recent Investor Presentation

Major holders and the BOD continue to add.

gla

G

Me too - take profits more free shares !

I didn't see RR coming so missed that one but to be honest you can't be everywhere lol.

G

Yep Volcano

It's popped a bit this morning.

It's 23.8 p to sell the ones I bought yesterday afternoon.

G

I sold out of AAZ at the beginning of Aug. a little early on during it's rise, but then watched it drop back, I've not gone back in again yet, due to the unrest. Though as you say it's bounced back today, ex div date tomorrow.

I've kept hold of all my TSG shares that I picked up in March but saw them drop back off their highs at the end of Sept. was thoughtful, but decided to add more on the dip at 80p, again ex div tomorrow. Happy to hold there, awaiting for more news on vein 25. With Gold at these levels, it's a hold for me.

I've also topped up on LGEN / GSK & SMDS in the last few weeks on the dips.

As for Trump - think we had chatted about the "orange faced one" before - no time for him, lots of conspiracy theory's floating around atm lol. Will they still have the second and third debates, the first was chaos. We have the Vice Presidential debate coming up, hopefully it'll be less of a "bun fight".

G

Hi Volcano - been watching them both, CMCX has had a strong tick up this year on the back of strong trading figures, it's getting close to its yr. high - £3.76, but with a further strong set of figures tomorrow it could break through that level. It's a missed opportunity from the £1.20 - £1.30 level last Autumn. KAPE gets positive posts on LSE, but is not so well liked over on ADFVN. Looks like maybe it has bounced off the bottom.

I'm still holding a couple of Goldies, more recently I've been adding to some of my FTSE 100 holdings on the recent second dips in the last six weeks, feel I've picked up some at decent prices.

Got a weather eye on the US election, keeping a slush fund ready just in case it throws up some further bargains.

G

Hi Volcano

I watched the Investor Presentation last Friday, very positive, whilst acknowledging the effects of the virus.

Be great if STOB sells Stobart Air by the Financial Year End, WB stated he'd be very disappointed if it wasn't gone by Feb 2021.

Then STOB could do with the Govt agreeing to Airport testing.

All good with the Energy Division.

G

Hi Stockraiser - thx for the link.

Yes I have seen it mentioned around other boards with no definitive answers.

Hundreds of small trades must be going through for a reason and must be to benefit someone or something.

I'll sit and watch where this takes the STOB sp. Perhaps a large trade sometime soon may make things clearer.

Am of the believe that things like this are happening for a reason. Have to wait and see.

G

Truth - I'm beginning to wonder, the trend continues this morning with already 14 out of the first 36 trades, for tiny sub £10 trades.

Loads of trades in the opening half hour for 4 - 10 shares a trade.

I see lucky no 6 shares is back joined by 4 / 5 / 7 / 10 etc.

Am keeping a watching brief, and will see where this takes the sp, I will sit out trading here it looks a bit odd.

Sure it will come out in the wash.

Does anyone else have a view on these regular small value trades ?

G

Truth - agree news moves shares. The interims in Nov will read pants as they'll be reporting March thro to Aug.

Any news on the same of Stobart Air will be important. Or the Govt accepting airport testing.

Expect the so to bumble around a bit in the meantime.

What did you make of the 200 regular sub £10 trades yesterday, in total cumulatively totalling somewhere around £1200 ,in value.

The 6 sahare sell came up dozens of times ?

G

ScOOby - it's been going on for a while now.

Today was the highest level of these "off book" trades I've seen so far - over 200 of them.

Like you I'm not entirely sure - though no doubt someone or something is behind it - emm !!

G

Check out lucky no 6 ( five 6 share trades in the last 12 mins of trading today )

Each 6 share trade is for the grand total of £1.07, and there dozens throughout the day.

G

Another eye raising day here with volumes of small trades going through at regular intervals !

Total trades today - 640 - total transactions circa £321k = roughly an average of £500 per trade.

But as per several recent days there were just over 200 trades today where the trade value was less than £10, all off book trades.

A regular trade that comes up is for 6 shares !

So around a third of today's trades - over 200 of them were for a total cumulative value of around £800 - £1200 .

Any thoughts ?

G

Hi Truth - must be good weather up North, it's been lashing down all day down here, truely not biking weather for a Southern lad lol.

Yep you can watch a re run the whole presentation and the Q & A session on - https://www.investormeetcompany.com. if you have signed up. It still there as I type.

WB made one statement, that surprised me by saying the Railway station at Southend is the only one in the Country actually owned by the Airport Operator, ( sure I heard that right ), which I wasn't aware of.

Lots of soundbites as you'd expect :

The World and Aviation will recover, to WB the downside risk is priced into the SP, but he would say that.

Confirmed they still value non core assets at £40M - but there seems no real urgency to divest, suggested over a three year period when opportunities present themselves.

You're going to have to park anythoughts on a quick sale of the Energy Division, it's still the plan to monetize it in a time frame of 14 - 20 months, which suggests they expect to get a full Years trading / revenues in for 2021 / 2022, before a sale. ( they mentioned the independent valuation @ in excess of £210M which I guess is their ball park valuation.

Next step is the interims ( Mar - Aug 2020 - should read pants ) then the exit of Stobart Air, expected in the next 5 months, imo that should move the sp north ( though that's only my glass half full view ).

WB stated that in his opinion, low cost carriers and short haul holiday travel to the usual destinations will recover quickly, and that when planes get back in the air he sees pressure on London slots, during peak periods.

We'll deffo be "shooting the breeze" here for a long time to come. They confirm they are managing Liquidity carefully, and are progressing the plan as laid out in the June 2020 rns.

Where the sp will trade - got no idea lol

G

Hi Truth - did you tune in to the webinar presentation.

WB seems very confident that the Group will divest Stobart Air by the Financial Year. End - Feb 2021. He actually said he'd be very disappointed if they had not exited it by Feb, and it was the BOD's main short term focus.

All positive on the Energy Division - they reinforced the high cost barriers to entry, interesting that they advise they have a third more wood stock than this time last year, so looks like no issues on the supply contracts.

They remain very optimistic as regards Southend, whilst acknowledging global issues from the virus. Looking for a re set by April 2021. Not sure why they dodge confirming it's Amazon, always refering to the Global logistics partnership,though they did state that Southend was the "best performing base" in the UK. Not sure how to independently verify that statement, though they did mention the close link to the Tilbury distribution centre.

G