Member Info for Gerry65

Many decent comments regarding Southend this morning.

It's reasonable to expect STOB to look to consider what is required at Southend against likely passenger flights in and out over the autumn and winter period. Notwithstanding the valuable cargo business that will continue.

I've reminded many here several times to re read the June 4th RNS - it outlines the forward plan for Southend, with cashflow projections. Worst case the BOD provides cash costs on a monthly basis based on zero passengers through to June 2021.

Great to see speculation, and interest from whichever viewpoint. I don't expect much newsflow between now and Nov. when the interims are published. At that time I'll be looking to see that the Energy Division, has been able to return to pre covid levels. Again BOD expectations are available to digest - for those that wish to read them.

Gla

G

Another Director taking the opportunity offered to pick up STOB shares at sub 30p.

Clive Condie ( Non Executive Director ) purchased 185,000 shares today

G

Volcano - guess it's a case of expect the unexpected lol.

If we get a genuine vaccine candidate, the market will pop for a few days.

Then there would be the period of head scratching, whilst the world works out how to get it to all parts of society.

Didn't quite get the dip on "goldies" i wanted to add more this morning.

G

Volcano - added loads, to my collection over the last week or so.

At these levels i'm picking up more free shares, in a couple of trades, than i probably picked up in maybe several months worth of trades last year.

True they are only worth pennies, but i'll keep hold of them and see what they are worth in say 2024. It's just a bit of fun really.

Wanted my cash back, as i'm looking to grab a few more Gold Mining shares on any more dips. Jeez Gold is still at $1950 - a little off the recent highs, but some of those Goldies are going to have stonking Q3 /Q 4 results.

G

That's been a nice little run up from the sub 24p level.

Have taken my profits today, ( top sliced and added to my little free chunk of these ).

Will be looking for another trade over the next couple of days. Be handy if it drops back to the 25 - 27p range, not sure if I'll be that lucky.

Let's see how things go.

G

Nice little top up by David Shearer.

Often with closed periods it's not always easy for the BOD to get decent prices.

i'm guessing he'll have been delighted to have picked some up @ sub 30p.

No doubt he's buying in for the longer term.

Looks like he's comfortable with the ongoing forward strategy as recently laid out.

G

Hi Birddog - to be honest as long as the sp is moving around - red day blue days I'm happy, looking for trades.

Possibly TOSCA adding and David Shearer's recently statements, have had a settling effect, on some - though I'm not one to be placed in the "nervous Nellie" category here.

I'm just sticking with the facts. Bank Debt before funding was between £80 - £90M ( depending on whether STOB had taken up any of the RCF "B". They raised £100m and after costs and cleared all Bank Debt. This is just not the time to be suggesting STOB has any immediate funding issues.

They now have new joint Bank Facilities totaling £120M, and have set out cashflow forecasts.

To be anywhere near Administration it would need to breach Banking facilities, atm they have £120M of RCF headroom.

In November we will be provided with the interim figures to 31st Aug end. They will show the cash / debt position. There is no running out of cash in the short term, as you mention. Again I'd direct you to the rns d/d 4th June.

David Shearer is a guy with a decent reputation, who plays with a straight bat. Check the Co. news statement below:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/stobart-group-ltd-ord-10p

There is no Hobson's choice here, you mention FLYBE - that reminds me STOB is still may receive funds back following it's admin.

The Energy Division at 1.5 - 1.7M tonnes pa, now that capex is at £2m pa, ( requires building up on a monthly basis ) could quite feasibly support Southend Airport ( not the Aviation Division as a whole ) for a considerable length of time.

Surprisingly the Airport has seen the following flight movements in August to date :
1/8 - 20 2/8 - 16 3/8 - 18 4/8 - 17 today 17
Forgive me but I am casting my mind back to this time last year and I seem to recall daily flight movements of between 50 - 80, during August 2019. So yes still well down and no guarantee the planes are full. However worst case cashflows for Southend are based on ZERO passengers through to June 21.

I've no share predictions - not my way. Maybe it would be reasonable to accept the Chairman's statement, I suspect we will see a sale or buy in to the Energy Division somewhere between Dec 21 - June 22

STOB is alive and kicking, with two excellent assets, very under valued in terms of present mcap, yes its a marmite share - yes some will have doubts, but their choice in that case is quite simple, - don't invest.

G

Those buying in at sub 24p recently ( big smiles all around) are up 20% ATM.

KIV - mcap @ 30p is only £187.50m

Potential assets of circa £1m + here post covid.

Debt cleared by recent cash raise, new increased £120M RCF's in place.

Off out for a bike ride - making the most the the weather.

G

Volcano - grg has stayed on my watch list since my trade a few weeks back. Looked over sold to me recently had a nice day today. Am out with friends for a beer on the green tonight - so will catch up with things tomorrow morning. I like grg think I'd trade rather than hold just for now so watch it shoot back up again lol.

G

As you say TF - no rush, only buy in when you really feel comfortable. Agree TOSCA are happy to pick up a few more here and there, and why not.

I don't disagree that the furlough changes over the next two months will likely put pressure on some businesses.

That said STOB have allowed the 188 employees in the Rail and Civils to move on.

The Energy Division, allowed most employees in that sector to continue working under "key worker status" or work from home. So furlough changes are not really an issue for the Biomass business. We can debate at length, the Aviation business, though I'll stick with the cashflow forecasts provided by the BOD if I may.

I'd be very thoughtful concerning those Co's that didn't get a cash raise off like STOB ( clearing all debt, at the time ), or those Co's that perhaps took some of the Covid funding available under the Govt. schemes, with very stringent conditions. See many more cash raises coming.

The BOD are clear, build up the revenues in the Energy Division, then sometime in the next 2 years, either sell it or allow a "buy in partner" as David Shearer mentions there are very high barriers to entry here. The major spend as been completed, so once back to pre covid levels - this is a very attractive business.

I suspect we'll be chatting about STOB for at least another 3/4 years, lol

KIV mcap @ 20p per share is £125M, and at 24p it's £150M, not a lot in it really for the potential value previously placed on Southend and the Energy Division - Circa £1M min.

G

Hi Volcano - yep a strong morning for STOB, the share that keeps on giving up these trading opportunities.

These were available to pick up at circa 23.7p mid morning yesterday, and a little later before lunch at around 23.8p.

Did you pick up more profits here, I got a nice chunk of the rise.

TF - I suspect that Volcano was just pointing out the opportunity, here today, he trades STOB, amongst many others,and has mentioned that many times on this bb - so I'm guessing he got his buy price, this morning made his money and has already closed his trade, and taken his profits. I doubt he'll be too concerned that STOB has dropped off it's day high.

After all tomorrow is another trading day.

Did you jump on board this week or are you waiting for your entry price ?

G

Whilst we wait for a recovery in the Aviation Division - a quick reminder about Stobart Energy - Perhaps not as exciting as Southend Airport, and often bypassed by posters here, and possibly others who are not yet invested. A couple of promotional videos:
https://www.stobartgroup.co.uk/divisions/energy/

https://www.stobartenergy.com/forestry/

A couple of quotes from David Shearer at the AGM :
"We are also taking steps to rebuild waste wood stock ahead of the anticipated winter demand. This business remains profitable, cash generative, with high barriers to entry and long-term contracts".
"The Group aims to identify a strategic buyer or infrastructure investor to monetise Stobart Energy in the next 18-24 months in order to fund future growth at London Southend Airport".

My thoughts:
The Energy Division is moving forwards again after the challenges of March - June.
As the Chairman mentions, Stobart has spent on building up the business, over recent years, and has in place it's long term contracts. making this a cash generative business, which may well be needed whilst Aviation suffers.
The major spend has been undertaken in previous years, for YR21, the capex is only budgeted at 2m.

Forests still grow, and require management. Construction has re started, increasing the availability of waste wood.

gla

G

Moni - It's not been a problem to me personally, but if you feel it's not worth you posting until the sp reaches 20p, then I'm quite comfortable., with your decision.

20p - an important price, No posts from Moni till that date and it's TF's buy in price. Two things to look forward too, lol.

I'll continue to look for those dip buy in trading days, and add to my holding as and when I can.

gla

G

Morning Volcano - am keeping an eye on the Gold Price, pushing the $2000 level.

Yep HGM making a nice move early doors today, am holding there plus AAZ and TSG, got to expect some stonking quarterlies from Gold miners, with Gold at these levels.

Many bb's have their fair share of non invested posters fretting about matters, usually on the more volatile shares, Rare to see them on the likes of ULVR.

Still all points of view are too be welcomed, i guess.

G

Moni - that's right but he did crash to earth, thought you'd like that, lol

G

TF - good to know you have your cheque book ready.

Never be surprised where any Co's sp can go -up or down.

Got you locked in for a buy in at 20p, still have great hopes for you, don't feel you are a lost soul, wandering the wilderness, like Moni, lol.

Remember atm, we are kindred souls here, neither of us has any any stake at risk here. You have no shares, though you have had many opportunities, to create a shareholding here.

Me well yes i have bucket loads of these, but I place no value on them, I didn't pay anything for any of them.

Trade and top slice, rinse and repeat.

G

Birddog - agree today's rns for the Energy Division is positive news. "Stobart Energy is now able to achieve required volumes of biomass fuel to its plant partners" - Forests still grow, and require management. Construction has re started, increasing the availability of waste wood.
KIV - 1.1m tonnes = annual b/e position, every tonne over that = bottom line profit. Remember after yrs of high capex spend to get the business to these levels, which has previously eaten into profits, this yrs capex for the Energy Division is only a tiny £2m.

Moving onto Southend , where you mention that it has previously lost a lot of money. It's worth separating the Airport from the rest of the Aviation Division, that's another entirely separate discussion.
May i ask you to look back over say the last 5 years, and calculate, the spend on the Airport to get it from A - B.
perhaps add up the capex on:
The Runway
The Concourse
The railway station
The hotel
The car parking
The infrastructure ( including improvement to the Tower etc )
just to name some key areas of expenditure, over recent years.

Will leave you to provide this bb with your cals. Yes it's eye watering. But the spend has been spent, to ensure Southend can compete, and provide the quality customer experience, moving forward, when and if the Virus complications allow.
KIV capex this year is only £10m by the way. Maybe consider the Airport's profitability, when and if passenger numbers return to post covid levels but without previous levels of spend. As much of the required spend has already been spent.

We are writing off yr21 - check out the cashflow projections ( rns 4/7/20).

KIV, debt has been cleared, so initially interest costs will be down YoY. Though STOB will be dipping into the increased, £120m RCF's, ad the months go by.
KIV - no pesky div payments for the time being.
KIV No further drain from Rail and Civils.

G

Where to start, an exciting day, UK and US markets well into the red. FTSE 100 dropping below the 6000 level.

Guessing a few stop losses were triggered today. though some won't want to contemplate it I'm hoping markets will retrace, down close to March lows, which will give a second opportunity to pick up bargains that I missed last time round. So say another 15% off the FTSE 100, will do the job.

Moni - why don't we consider "Icarus" for STOB's new name lol. Not sure how but STOB ended blue today - i have a closing price of 26.15 ( +2.75% ) on three platforms. Note to diary STOB, top messing around, with these blue days, this is a bb when only red will do. Still tomorrow is another day, lol.

20p would be a great trading level to complete some day trades, goodness knows how many extra free carry shares i could pick up from top slicing on trades, at that level, now you're talking my language, buddy.

Not only that it's TF's stated buy in price, he'd have to step up to the plate, or do "billy bottle" and join you on the naughty step.

G

Volcano - just done a dummy buy and sell, got 27.01 & 26.64 - 1.01% spread i think a few mins ago, but its bouncing around.

Thinking about a bike ride, before it gets too warm later today.

G

Volcano - very strong figures from AZN, historically, i'm in GSK, feel they've missed a trick or two recently, in comparison to AZN.

Been wading through both BARC and LLOY rns yesterday and today. lots to take on board, but the increase in deposits, leads me to think that there could be a major, up tick in spend when the UK finds it's way out of the constraints of the virus.

Any positive news on vaccine progress or a structured testing program at airports should send the Aviation sector northwards.

G