Member Info for Gerry65

TF - think if my memory serves me right you were the first to mention that you felt TOSCA would look to break up the business when they first bought in back in January.

Agree TOSCA are not stupid and must have crunched the numbers, particularly before their latest top up.They have to answer to their investors.

Did you know their break even figure is now 70p per share !

Not sure what time frames they have set to gain value for their investors here. Am guessing they'll be looking more to the medium to longer term, whilst pi's seem to fret on pretty much a daily basis.

It must be a pain for larger institutional investors, buying in on the placing, now 25% down. They are a bit like supertankers. whereas us pi's can nip in and out, and buzz round and about in our tiny little sailing dinghies. Got to watch out for bad weather and rough seas though.

gla

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TF - I live in a market town, the high street has changed, over recent years, where I am its pubs, cafes, charity shops, estate agents and hairdressers / barbers. luckily we are well serviced with supermarkets, plenty of choice there.

But so many empty units. Surely with the growth in online its now time for both Central and local Govt. to pave the way to cut through planning and allow the switch to residential use. It's happening slowly here. Several years ago a major car sales showroom was bought up by MSC and is now a massive retirement complex.,They've also bought our police station for ongoing development. The beer garden in one of our pubs is now two houses, and another was flattened and they managed to get 10 houses on the plot.

We still have so many empty units, or ones that are yet to re open. Strikes me as the chance to balance the need for housing in the South East, with available property.

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Volcano - I've still got my profits in BVC - it continues northwards.

The FTSE100 looks like it is going to give us another bite at shares we missed out on back in March. We saw what our long term portfolios looked like at when the FTSE dropped to 5000. The markets kindly gave us a recovery, and the chance to escape some of the more problematic positions.

What next - got to love it.

gla

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Volcano - I'll be looking for buying opportunities every day lol.

The list of shares on my watchlist grows daily. In general I'm planning mainly to stick with my trusted favourites.

Jack be nimble Jack be quick. In and out don't hang around.

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Moni - you have the right of it regarding retail and the high street.

In my town, we have just lost an independent travel agent, though the owner is continuing to trade from home, giving up the office.
We have lost our TOFS this week.
Only half of our pubs have re opened, so far, the landlords of my local have advised us they are handing back the keys., they are personal friends.
Our independent camping and outdoor store is on its way too.
We already had many empty units prior to covid.

Not sure how the Chancellor's £1,000 “job retention bonus” for employers that bring workers back from furlough will pan out.

Over recent years, many retailers have looked to alter contract hours for staff. apart from management, the days of a full 36 + weekly contract in retail are becoming something of a rarity.

Employers have found it more flexible to employ 3 people on P/T flexible contracts, rather than one full time member of staff. It makes rotas easier, and also keeps many staff below the 16 hours a pw threshold.

So should retailers bring those P/T staff back off furlough, they will likely fall below the £520 pm level, as most are on £8.72 ph or lower depending on their age, and therefore won't qualify, under the latest scheme. So no benefit there to the retail business, as regards the £1k bonus available in Feb 2021.

If the footfall isn't there by the autumn, it will be a brave retailer that brings back all staff.

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spoon_key - agree with much of what you say - we are heading for a winter of discontent.

Been reading your chats over on CINE, places I'll avoid for the time being, - Planes, trains, buses, taxis's, Cinemas. Shopping Malls, pubs and restaurants, and cafes. I'm not looking to be a covid volunteer for at least July and August. Will review matters in September.

It's - beers on the Green for my mates and I atm, both Holiday's have been cancelled this year.

You may have missed a fair chunk of the Gold run up - during March and April. I bought into AAZ and TSG, and traded HGM back in the spring many gold shares were absolute bargains - eg :
AAZ - was available in the 80's
TSG - was available in the 40's
I picked up both of those.
PAF - was available at sub 10p
HUM - was available at sub 20p
I did a couple of trades on HGM, and to me it still is worth picking up on dips.

If you accept that the pod cast chats are to designed up sell their Companies then check out Crux Investor if it's a site you don't already use - the interviews are well worth a watch, you'll find most Co's have updates on there.

gla

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https://www.cruxinvestor.com/

There may well be more up ticks as Gold continues its steady rise.

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Moni - last part - so "Sillyman" can keep up.

I think we'll be debating STOB for many months to come. It's got it's cash raise, much better imv to tackle covid up front, as opposed to delaying matters with Govt. Loan schemes, which have stringent terms attached both as to terms and repayment.

Not much likely to come in the form of news flow until the interims on the end of August are posted in Nov. They will not read great how can they we are already 4 moths into H1 - the key will be how quickly the Energy Division revenues recover. Remember no div costs, and very low cap ex planned this year.

On an aside turning to TOSCA, ( STOB's major shareholder ). They have increased their holding to 174.79m shares (27.97%).

Been buying since January this year. Presently their holding is valued at £55m.

Did you know they have actually paid a total of £122m for their holding.

They are down £67m !!

You might want to write an open letter to their investors lol.

Wonder what it is they see in STOB, surely they have a duty of care to their investors to create value for them.

Gla

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Moni - I'm breaking this post up, as Sillyman ( Sandyman) can't cope with anything over a paragraph or two - poor soul that he is.

I'm not concerned with your share predictions, that's your choice, it's always helpful, if as you have this time backed up your position with some info, so thanks for that.

It may be you have read some of my recent posts or even the 4th June rns or looked on the STOB website, yet again I find myself in agreement with you - strange times. Though may be not too strange as the BOD have stated their strategy :

Dump the Rails and Civils Division on anyone asap
Get the Energy Division back up to pre covid monthly tonnes pm, then monetise it for share holder value. By which my take is a sale or buy in.
Long term focus on Southend. ( Where the previous buy in offer was scuppered by the virus ).

I seeyou have slightly upped your previous "buy"ecommendation at 5p to a more bullish "sub 10p entry" you want to tread carefully my friend or you'll be seen as a ramper lol.

Trading volumes are light here this week, making day trades tricky. Am thinking that a drop into the 20's may get some action, will deffo be fun. Like everyone I very much like buying my shares cheap, then finding someone who'll buy them at a higher price. We all want to make a profit whether we day trade or hold for gold.

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Morning Moni - just popped on to say I fully agreed with your two posts last night on HFD, and your change in stance from your buy recommendation when it was sitting at £2.40 some months back. High street retail is facing huge issues. I think you said you managed to average down over there, on the previous recovery, a month or so back, I also traded it on the rise, and made a few pennies. Good to see we sometimes see things in a similar light. I'd say there may be some future day trades to pick up over there, so am keeping track of it.

So many sectors facing challenges three that Spring to mind are retail, hospitality and airlines. Not to say money can't be made by trading.

Turning to Airlines, I don't disagree with your latest post here. Though you may wish to broaden your concerns for the industry and warn those PI's on RYA/EZJ/TUI/ DTG /IAG, of the "dire mess". Why is it you only want to save STOB holders from impending doom lol ? After all STOB is only a small fish in the great scheme of things, think of how many others you could save if you put your mind to it. Emmm.

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Volcano - agreed it's a bit choppy out there. Will take a look later, to see the direction of travel. Tomorrow is another day and another opportunity

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TF - yep, possible break clause Apl 2023, should the franchise agreement not be renewed in Dec 2022.

The position has merely reverted to pre Connect days.

Much water will pass under the bridge, in the intervening time.

In the short term its important to get the Energy Division, revenues back to previous levels. STOB can as is the case with many Companies only deal with issues over which it has some measure of control.

gla

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Sandyman - ref. the length of my posts. - It's not my problem that you have the attention span of a squashed gnat.

If you struggle with my posts, how on earth, do you manage to wade your way through an RNS. After all they are rather weighty documents, without cartoon pictures to help you on your way. Maybe stick to reading comics buddy.

Whilst I have to say knowing my posts irritate you, gives me some small measure of pleasure, I'll repeat what I suggested to you last time. It's only advice, not a direction or a command, i'll leave those to you. Please feel free to filter me .

What a total tool.

Btw - morning all, may your day trades be fortunate, and your long term investments sound.

Cheers.

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Hi Volcano - These red then blue, then red then blue days offer up opportunities.

Yep saw your post over on HFD this morning. Been watching over there since a trade on its recent run up. I wondered if perhaps the last 3 months trading was likely to be as good as has been painted. The forward guidance was always likely to be uncertain, and the phrase regarding the potential forward selling of cycles, stuck in my mind, to me it suggested less bike sales as the year moves on. Though 7.5p or 1.60 ovér there gives up 5%.

I got close to BOO this afternoon but held off as maybe tomorrow may offer a better price. KIV SDRY results are out Thurs, so it could be fun and games over there.

I'd add a couple of possibles that'll be keeping an eye on - TPT if the spread is tight, and CPI on price, both for a bounce back if it's a blue day.

Both STOB & TLW offer 5% for 1.5 - 1.6p, what's not to like.

The hour between 7.00 am - 8.00 am flys by, I'll be looking back at the US close and Asian markets overnight, with the likely FTSE 100 futures position, checking covid news, and rns's, and factoring in any numpty comments that Politicans throw into the mix.

So many choices.

gla

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TF - the rns confirms there are. it's the same rns I've mentioned to you before. It's worth a read.

Gives the position warts and all. With detailed info on the bod's plans to take STOB forward.

It's the position as presented to the Institutional Investors.The forward strategy ( external / unexpected issues apart ) is there in black and white. It's everyone's individual choice, as to whether they wish to read it,

It's not compulsory, just an option, lol.

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Thanks Birddog - there are challenges, but your figure of £100m, is I think based on the overall period of Apl 2020 through to Apl 2027. There is the break clause as I mentioned, and we will have to wait to see as regards the Aer Lingus franchise extension, as its 17 months away.

The rns I mentioned earlier, if I remember correctly doesn't factor flights or income from Southend until spring 2021, in it's cashflow projections, for the Group. If passenger numbers, come back sooner all well and good.

They want and need to dump the Rail and Civils, asap.

The aim is to get the Energy Division back up to pre covid revenues within the time frames outlined. The BOD has confirmed it is looking to monetise the Energy Division by 18 - 24 months, I take that to be a sale, or some sort of buy in.

Among some mis steps along the way - much of the challenge for STOB over recent years has been the capex required, to get the Energy Division and Southend to the levels achieved just prior to Covid.

This trading year capex for the airport is to be only £10m, and the Energy Division a mere £2m. Remember the Energy Division was independently re valued back in the summer of 2019.

Its great fun here lol.

gla

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birddog816 - from your 10 posts here I'm taking it that you are bearish on STOB, or at least unsure as to how it will all pan out.

That's understandable, we are not dealing with a ULVR or maybe a GSK or a RB. here, and the future is uncertain with STOB.

The STOB BOD, kindly provided a detailed breakdown of the position relating to Stobart Air & Propius within the " Placing & Open Offer" rns dated 4th June. The Information was made available to the market and to all who wished to participate in the cash raise, which included the Institutional Investors. It also detailed why the raise was required and where the funds were to be applied. I mentioned this in my post ( 2/7/20 - 09.38).

The position as regards the subsidiaries is less than ideal, I mentioned that in my post ( 25/06/2020 ) I seem to recall saying that the Connect deal did originally make sense for STOB as it de - risked the balance sheet somewhat. But like rubber balls the subsidiaries have bounced back to STOB.

The lease committments are £15.4m pa until April 2027, the subsidiaries net cashflow projections for the current year are also detailed in the 4th June rns.

The Aer Lingius franchise extension is due to be renegotiated by Dec 2022. If this does not come to pass then there is a break clause in the leases with a break payment.

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Tav - low 280's for SMDS should be fine medium term. Only reason I didn't get in yesterday was my TLW trade took most of the day to make 1.5p and circa 5%. Took to late in the afternoon to close it and by that time I had missed the bottom on SMDS.

Am holding off on trading today, it's red overall, out there, and US futures look weak, ATM. I looked at BOO like the retrace but will the investigation continue to weigh on it or will it bounce back quickly - probably if I don't put some in lol.

Good shout on PLUS, I think Volcano trades that one.

This market gives then takes - red then blue then red then blue. Great for trading ATM.

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wolfofmiddlesex - profit is profit, any trade that makes you money is a good one in my book. Am going to re read the SMDS Final Results RNS again this evening.

It's a bit of a bun fight over on TLW, been an eventful time for the Co. Bulls and Bears have a tug of war over there. I trade, on blue days, on price, and any positive news on oil overall, aiming to get in early morning if I can get a price, and aim to be out asap. - Then rinse and repeat.

I steer well clear on red days, sentiment is fickle on oiler's atm.

I grab a quick profit and get out, as it can go either way, at any time.

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wolfofmiddlesex - I put a chunk into TLW this morning - I've traded it regularly, thought I'd get an easy and quick 1.5p for 5%, but its taken a age to get moving today, am up atm but looks like I may have to take less than I hoped. Will give it a little while longer.

Was surprised to see SMDS drop away today when the market is blue, here at say 2.80 + it's 15p either way for + / - 5 %. I do see 2.95 as more likely than 2.65.

Let's see what the US open brings to our markets this afternoon.

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Tav - CRST bounces around a fair bit, the price you got after the results may well give you a decent return in the medium to longer term. When it flys it flys, It shot up in Apl. and in June, to over 2.90.

Think you got a good price on SMDS, I am looking for a re entry there, and you are still up after yesterday's retrace.

They've both been good for a decent trades since March, and are in my group of trading shares, I'll probably be joining you in either or both of them over coming days and weeks.

I'm expecting STOB to find another of it's trading ranges, as things settle down from the cash raise, it was great to trade between 1.00 - 1.10 with 5p giving 5%. Now at say 30 - 35, 1.5p gives up a 5% profit. Others may not agree but we need blue and red days here, for great trading opportunities.

Yes a lot more shares in issue - now 625 m but the majority, of the cash raise shares, in excess of 200m have gone to institutions, who are circa 20% down atm, apart from Invesco who seem to be looking to reduce, the rest, are more likely looking towards holding for a longer term recovery.

I'll be looking for my second post cash raise trade here next week.

gla

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