Member Info for Gerry65

It's been really quiet trading wise here for the last week or so, no price action.

Only 221 trades as I type, with less than £300K's worth traded.

Still Southend is gradually coming out of hibernation, 7 departures and 7 arrivals scheduled today. Small fry, but a start.

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Hi Volcano - yep seems to have been well received.

I added on the 10th July, got sub 6.20. Have held here for many years, and look to add on dips.

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Last summer flights were between 25 - 40 ish for arrivals and departures - so circa 50 - 80 movements a day. So it's a start, at least the airport is back up and running, though perhaps in a limited form. Be good to hear from anyone who has a a flight booked in the next month or so, to provide feedback on the ground.

Let see what August brings, perhaps Brits. will look to take holidays deeper into the autumn, depending on how things pan out virus wise.

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https://southendairport.com/flights/departures-and-arrivals

The above page is live again, 4 flights in today and 4 flights out.

Some way away from pre covid times, but at least its a start.

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sorry EU leaders struggling with their stimulus deal.

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Too much Geo political stuff going on today with Uk / China tensions, and UK leaders struggling to get the stimulus deal over the line.

Cancelling out positive news from the Oxford vaccine trial.

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https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/18593690.easyjet-recommences-flights-southend-airport/

We are some way away from a workable vaccine. Even then it would some months to work through the various priority groups, before it is available to all. Could be some time yet.

In the meantime for me its no planes, trains, buses or taxi's.

Both main holidays this year, have been re booked for next year.

Whilst we wait, for me it's a case of looking for quick trades. Each time one of the key players in the search for the vaccine pops out a review, there's hopefully an opportunity.

Didn't buy in anywhere this evening, so it's a chilled weekend. Let's see what Monday brings.

gla

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Volcano - Yes it quickly bounced off that level.

I've not traded today, but am sitting here, pondering the timing of the Lancet report on the Early-stage human trial data on the vaccine being developed by Astra Zeneca and Oxford University due out some time on Monday.

If it's out early doors and is positive, then I can see a bit of a bun fight on Cyclicals Monday morning, and it may be difficult to get a price. That said it could be less positive - who knows ?

The markets are likely to react to any good news, kiv - Moderna started its Phase II trial in May and expects to start a Phase III trial on July 27.

It's a pity the EU leaders are meeting atm to discuss the latest Stimulus package, as any disagreement there could put a spanner in the works for Monday.

I'm looking at a couple this afternoon, and considering options. Knowing me I'll sit on my hands, I generally like to have my trading pot back into cash for the weekend, but if the right price pops up I might have a little nibble lol.

gla

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Are those Connect weekly cost figures covered in an rns ?

Do we know if the Aldi trial project is running at a profit or a loss atm ?

I know it's a limited offering, but if costed correctly there maybe some value in it I guess.

To me I'd look at expanding the online offer, and not get too excited about the online growth % figures recently quoted, the actual £'s revenues are more relevant. In addition i'd hope that online sales are not just picking up lost store sales, i'd be hoping to capture sales from competitors.

Card were a bit unfortunate to expand their store offering over recent years only find Covid 19, waiting around the corner. This is the time to escape, under performing stores, where they can exit with the least costs.

LFL revenues fell last year, the market gets nervous so easily.

Much to do here, but perhaps no more than many in retail. A working vaccine would be a real boost for the sector.

Fingers crossed.

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Thanks Uddin - It was a brief chat, and I was wearing a mask, and he just wanted to get on with the job in hand.

Agree no direct store overheads, though likely some fees due to Aldi, to make it worth their while.

Do you have the figures, on how many Connect Group employees are required to cover the 400 Aldi stores, and how often each Aldi store is re stocked, and the display tidied up, as I've noticed the rack does get a bit messy on occasions in our local store.

Card provided some info on sales through Aldii recently as part of an update, but i don't recall any info on the costs associated with the project or bottom line profit figures. Though i may be mistaken there.

Maybe we'll get the full picture in due course.

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Ref Card in Aldi stores.

I was in our local Aldi last week and a guy was working on the Card rack, which holds a small selection of cards at the end of one of the aisles, close to the tills.

He had a name badge on a chain round his neck, and was updating the offering, working to a template. So i had a quick chat with him. I wondered if he was employed by Aldi, and following Card instructions on his guidance sheet, or actually someone from our local card store.

In actual fact he advised that he was employed by a separate company, outsourced, to keep the rack up to date.

I only put this up as it seemed an expensive way to provide this additional sales revenue.

Any other thoughts on this.

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TF - as you say the cash raise provides breathing space, and maybe keeps any cheeky bids on the back burner.

Anything could happen, after all it's STOB. It's a case of waiting for news on a vaccine, for the airport. Though if and when it comes today's Airline Sector performance, seems to indicate, that many shares will bounce nicely. S
There are some coiled springs out there.

Think TOSCA will be expecting a positive return on their £122m investment, and may have an influence here. Their b/e position is 70p. So some way to go for them.

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Hey TF - that's the beauty of these bb's, we all see things differently, it would be a very strange place if we didn't.

If we all thought the same it would be nigh on impossible to create a genuine market for trading.

The road is long and winding for STOB and We've had a coup,e of detours added in.

Still with the cash raise, it will allow us many more months to debate matter's. Whilst chatting i'm going to make sure I pick up profits, on trading dips.

Today i retained my profits in top sliced shares, last time i took the cash off the table. Not sure which way i'll go next time.

Cheers

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Yep Volcano - i read the Robert Peston report on the Oxford Covid vaccine progress, more info on "T cells"

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/positive-news-is-coming-on-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-writes-robert-peston

Crossed fingers.

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Birddog - so we have two businesses, Biomass , previously valued at £238M, if run rates can be expanded, maybe more.

Southend - where the cheeky 25% minority bid in the spring valued the Airport at say £800M.

So potential two assets that could be valued at £1M, for the balance sheet at some time in the future.and yes there are the liabilities to consider.

There is further cap ex required, it's broken down in the rns 4th June, and is substantially lower over the next 3/4 years than past infrastructure costs. For this year only £2m for Energy and £10M for Aviation.

So why look to monetise the Energy Division over the next 18 - 24 months ?

My views
- It probably wasn't the initial plan ( though plans can change )
- It will likely need more cash.
- STOB has no real idea when the Airport will be back to YR20 passenger numbers, I'd suggest YR21 is a write off and in YR22, hopefully they can get back to pre covid passenger numbers, so in effect two years are lost.
- STOB has an element of control over the Energy Division, enabling it to present to the market a business that has matured and is cash generative within time frames.
- There maybe capacity limits on Biomass delivery past 2M pa, longer term. The BOD see 10M passengers, pa through Southend as an achievable long term goal.
-So the potential growth value still sits at Southend, and that's where the long term value is seen.

If no vaccine comes along, its all bets off, but that's the case for many Companies.

If we get an early working vaccine, say in the Autumn, then, the dark clouds could pass by very quickly.

Be great if they could manage to find a way through and keep both Divisions, grow the revenues, and with reduced ongoing costs then the cash will flow through to the bottom line.

Emmm - I am a glass half full type of guy lol.

gla

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Birddog - I agree with what you say, about losses, but its also worth looking at the break down in impairments and depreciation, and considering whether they are all done, and wonder whether that is that lol - emm.

Yes Revenues - Energy £76.3m - EDITDA - £24.2m
- Aviation £56.8m - EDITDA - £8.6M

There have been some mis steps along the way, with Connect, and other write downs, but the present BOD did take over a Company with its fingers in many pies., and many legacy issues, and the bad taste left by the sacking of Mr Tinkler. It's taken some time but they are streamlining the business.

One of the major challenges for STOB over recent years has been the amount of capex required to get both both the Biomass business and Southend to where they are now. Considering STOB's small capital base, those figures were massive, and the spend would always likely to outweigh revenues during the initila expansion period.

Lets cheer up the "key board warrior" with another video :-

https://www.stobartgroup.co.uk/divisions/aviation/

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Birddog - Going back to the interims report 14th Nov 2019, it seemed to me that the Group intended to focus on growing both the Energy and Aviation divisions.

They published the independent review valuation on the Energy Division back in June 2019 at £238M, The Biomass tonnage started the year at an average equating to 1.3m, but finished the year back in Feb 2020 at a run rate of 1.7m, an overall average of 1.5m for the full year. That was 12% Yr on Yr growth. They do rely on wood supply, where they take gate receipts, with the remainder of the income coming from the long term supply contracts with the plants.

I haven't been able to find where I read this but I believe they had a medium to long term target to level out at 2m pa. So I suspect that whilst highly cash generative, i suspect that there is a potential ceiling.

Whereas over at Southend, the passenger growth was up 43% for the year, and back in the interims, they were confident of delivering its target of welcoming 5 million passengers per annum at £8 EBITDA per passenger in the year to February 2023. So with long term aspirations to hit 10m passengers pa, there is considerable growth available.

The Minority equity 25 % stake - scuppered by Covid 19, demonstrated that the BOD would have looked to raise cash for future cap ex through the Airport, this is unlikely in the short term, so it seems they have decided to look to monetise the Energy Division, which should get back on track in a much shorter time frame.

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Hi Birddog - great question and one that has crossed my mind over recent months.

I'm afraid my answer may be a little long so in an effort to keep the "key board warrior" entertained I thought I'd put up the Energy Division video once again, as it explains the business with its end to end supply process, and in truth is a good watch.

https://www.stobartgroup.co.uk/divisions/energy/

Also worth a read is :

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/articles/aburningissuebiomassisthebiggestsourceofrenewableenergyconsumedintheuk/2019-08-30

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Volcano - STOB's gone up another couple % whilst I typed my latest post.

Note to diary - post longer and post more lol.

Gla

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