Member Info for Gerry65

Hi Volcano - I sold my UU on the Boris election bounce @ £9.11 having held them for 2/3 years and picking up nice safe divs. ( 13/12/19 -I sold them along with a number of other shares - as I suspected Brexit was going to prove challenging for Doris in 2020, and I wanted to take profits and return some of my long termer's to cash, to go again, after he'd messed it up ).

They then rose to £10.50 by Feb 2020 and it looked like I'd sold too early - Then bang - lockdown 1 was announced and they dropped to circa £7.65 on 23rd March.

UU has hit £10.50 twice in the last 5 years but tends to trade in the £8 - £9 range.

It's a safe Div share, and pays out around 42p pa

@ £8 a share that's a return of 5.25 %
@ £9 a share that's a return of 4.66 %

Neither of which are too shabby.

Its popped through £9 with this weeks rise, it's around £9.20 to buy as I type.

Historically that's above it's upper range. It may be a trading play when the results come out on the 25th, depending where the sp sits, but it looks a little warm for me taking a trade @ £9.20 - you'd need a further 45p for a 5% day trade.

As a safe long term div share it's a decent buy, but I'd rather pick it up at sub £8.50, if the market offers it up at that level in the next few months. KIV ex div date is mid Dec for an early Feb interim payout.

Watch it shoot up to £11 on the half year results, now I've said that !! lol

G

Volcano - I was buying and selling TLW from its dip down to sub 10p back in Feb,through the Spring and early Summer. I kept some of my profits on the table - when I perhaps should have sold when it approached 40p in June. they have been on the back boiler since. Haven't traded TLW for a little while now, but the rise today on the back of the Uganda sale is pleasing.

G

Volcano - prob a good time to vacate the CPI bb - I see A Smithy has followed Owls across there to continue their EZJ spat. May be a bit toxic on there for a few days lol.

G

Volcano - that hour between 7 - 8 am over on LSE is time well spent each morning.

My first port of call no matter what, together with checking Overnight markets FTSE futures, and metals / oil futures.

Guess we are fortunate to have the free time each morning for research.

Hoping for a little dip here, to go again. I cashed out yesterday at 28.20p ish.

Am kicking myself for not picking up BAE @ £4.00 & CCH @ £17.80 last week had my finger hovering over the buy button but didn't press. Both buys would have been added to my long term holds. Looks like I've missed the bus on both of them.

G

Hi Volcano - simply bucket loads of RNS's out today, I read them between 7 - 8 am over on LSE. It's the first time that I can remember that there are over 6 pages worth. Perhaps many Co's feeling this is a good time for an update. Reading the ones from CCH & BAE it looks like I missed the chance to get in at the bottom last week.

TBH you can't be everywhere. Perhaps the FTSE will take a breather today, it'll be interesting to see if the swing into cyclicals will continue.

TF - no noise has been great - we deffo agree on that lol.

Moni - don't be grumpy, hopefully you've made some money somewhere this week - would have been hard not too. Think you did say a while back that you still work, so I accept you probably have less time for research and to react quickly on any given day, I know I wouldn't have been able to day trade before I retired. You did have the chance to buy in sub your original 20p price but declined the offer presented. So you'll have to sit on the sidelines "chuntering" for a while. STOB still has to achieve the Stobart Air sale, so still many twists and turns to come. Every chance of seeing both 20p or 40p before Xmas, no doubt any retrace will see further 5p posts from you lol. Have a great day.

Gla

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Moni - Nearly 2000 trades here today. I did ok on CPI and CINE too, cashed in and grabbed what was on offer.

A great couple of trading days.

G

Moni I got in yesterday - its been double bubble for me her , what a great rise up from just over 19p for me.

Got to me in it to win it., mate.

Did you get any here, be a real waste if you missed it, but to be honest there were opportunities everywhere.

Even better news - LSE chat was down again for most of the day for the second day running, so no background noise lol.

To me it wouldn't be a bad thing if LSE dropped the chat most days.

gla

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Volcano - took a "Biden Bounce" trade here this morning, guess I got a bit lucky that the vaccine news, then broke.

Looking at the number of trades - looks like many others took the opportunity presented, well done to all those who got in here sub 20p over the last few weeks.

Am guessing you also had a little nibble here today mate.

looking around many cyclical shares offered up big gains today, not just STOB.

This share has been very kind to me in the past and continues to do so.

"Got to be in it to win it"

GLA

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Cleveinvester - just to be clear at the half year - aug end.

STOB had

Cash £10m

Bank debt £11m ( therefore £109m unused headroom on the 2 RCF's which total £120m if fully drawn )

So cash plus unused headroom = £119 m.

The focus in the short term must be on whether the BOD can dump Stobart Air, which in present covid circumstances is a drain on cashflow.

If it does manage the sale, then imv the Energy Division should recover quickly in 2020, I would guess the BOD would wish to see a full years trading here unhampered by covid 19, before looking to sell the Division.

The long term focus is on Stobart Aviation at Southend Airport and Stobart Aviation Services where a solution by way of a vaccine or effective fast track airport testing is required.

Never a dull day here lol.

G

Cleveinvester - The placing raise was necessary as back in May STOB had fully utilised it's previous RCF of £80m.

In simple terms the deal was raise £100m - clear the existing RCF. Then two new RCF's were negotiated at £80m and £40m.

As such the placing money has been applied to debt clearance. The position at Aug end ( half year ) was £10m in cash and excess to £109m of unused RCF's.

STOB will in the short term need to delve into the RCF's as it's cash burn atm is £2m per month ( excluding Stobart Air)

The annual lease guarantee liabilities attached to Stobart Air are a big drag on STOB's cashflow. It needs to divest itself of this business.

If it secures the tender which will be known by Dec end, then this potentially opens the door for the sale of Stobart Air. Imv this is the key play, as it to a very large extent re risks the balance again. STOB had originally managed to dump this business into the Connect deal but unfortunately with the Demise of FLYB the BOD pretty much had no option but to catch this rubber ball.

The short term trading play here is the sale of Stobart Air, if a sale is secured by Feb end then I would expect the sp to track north, and shares picked up in the teens could be traded for a decent profit.

If it fails of achieve it's sale, then the lease payments and monthly costs will gradually eat into the RCF's.

PI's have to decide if STOB is a value play or a value trap. I trade it, top slice and collect free tokens. Just a bit of fun for me here.

G

Hi Birddog - our posts crossed.

Not a bad stab from you on the history of the sale and leaseback that created STOB's present lease guarantor liabilities.

That's why I like chatting to you and TF as there is some research in there behind your views.

The aircraft leases total $15.4 million per annum, I believe the payment is due each Dec, if memory serves, until April 2027 with a break clause in April 2023 if the Aer Lingus franchise is not extended beyond December 2022, on payment of a break fee of $21.2 million plus associated break fee finance costs.

So if the franchise is not extended, would that not be $15.4M Dec 20 / 21 /22 = $46.2M + the break fee of $21.2M -so circa $67.5M. The rns quotes the leases in dollars.

It's sale is key here, if STOB manage to mislay Stobart Air, a drain on the business is removed - would you then not expect a decent uptick on the sp - if it sticks then cashflow could come under pressure, much earlier and may put pressure on the Group to sell off non core assets, more quickly then the BOD would like.

Pleased I lured you into the Luton situation - i've posted this before :

https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/news/politics/councils-ps60m-loan-luton-airport-company-approved-private-executive-committee-2974406

My initial interest in STOB was around the development of Southend Airport. Having flown from Heathrow and Gatwick far more regularly, I did try both Luton and Stansted, but found the overall experience at both dreadful, never again !! I have used Southampton many times in the past, and it was an enjoyable experience. I expect the overall experience at Southend is why it has seen the growth over recent years.

G

I agree

Birddog - i'm not doubting the challenges in front of the STOB BOD, and as TF posted a week or so ago - anyone believing they know what the future holds here is probably guessing.

It's important to consider here that all outcomes are possible, when deciding on any particular trade.

I'll keep on looking for dip trades, whilst chatting things through on here.

I do need to come back to you yet again re Southend Airport, we have covered the previous costs of annual capex on the bottom line, in previously reported yearly figures. There is more to do at Southend infrastructure wise, but STOB has invested heavily over recent years, to get the Airport to where it is now.

I notice you didn't comment some of my previous posts on the damage the virus is causing to its competitor Airport's balance sheets

Short haul should recover first in my view. Both the planes and the Airports will still be there in years to come, Southend offers a low cost option to the likes of RYA / WIZZ, etc. it has a low volume annual passenger requirement in B/E terms.

Perhaps it's not a case of worrying about the future of Southend, I suspect it will expand and develop, over coming years. Perhaps who will ultimately own it longer term is of more relevance here.

STOB is like many businesses in "choppy waters" atm, and needs to maintain close control on costs, whilst looking to follow through on the BOD's recovery plans, there are many variables out there that could scupper things, that's the fun of being on this bb.

Far more fun here than other bb's where I am invested, many are like ghost towns, lol.

G

Birddog - oh why indeed lol.

Did say whilst we wait its great for speculation here.

Did you want to break down The "huge liability - North of £100m into bite size chunks, including time frames. Maybe it would help to comment on the break clause - perhaps ? - Maybe I don't know maybe not.

The tender is key as you say, so its quite a play here, if the liability you mention could be classed as immediate, and is removed from the accounts, some might say the Mcap might respond positively.

So as I say - some may see the sp at sub 20p as a value play others as a value trap, and any slippage down to 10p even more so.

BTW - how do you see things panning out at at Luton Airport - what will the council do next ?

G

Moni - I should re read my posts for auto fills.

Pictured you scratching your head yesterday , though you may have been stretching it lol.

Did you make any money on a little trade on the half year report, I suspect not here though hey ho there have been so many opportunities this week in many sectors.

Be handy if this could drift a little over coming weeks - could offer a great dip position, or a value trap, depending on whether you believe STOB can sell Stobart Air.

G

Moni - our posts crossed this morning ah ah ah.

Am guessing you didn't listen to the Investor presentation so you prob don't have the cash flow projections to hand.

To me it's all about the sale of Stobart Air in the short term.

Thought of you yesterday were you stretching your head wondering why the sp moved northwards on the day iof the half year figures ?

It's a case of waiting for the tender results the by the end of the year, if secured I'd expect the sale to go through.

In the meantime this bb is available to all to speculate.

G

Cleveinvestor - lots of positives from the Investor Presentation. Did you note that it was pre recorded, and as such some of the cash flow projections did not factor in the added bonus of the renewed furlough payments during this latest lockdown. The Q & A session did seem live to me.

They were very cagey on progress for the sale of Stobart Air. To me this is the key here, the need to secure the tender bid. I would venture to suggest that if this is moved on and lifted out of the balance sheet it's a major game changer, and the sp could move sharply northwards on any positive news. On the other hand if Stobart Air is not off loaded then the RCF could come under pressure next year, under their "worst case" analysis.

TF is pretty much correct the £119m is actually made up of £10m cash and £109m headroom RCF.

TF did you listen to the presentation, WB made reference to possible expansion of the logistics contract at Southend, though he also mentioned Carlisle as an additional option, emm, though of you immediately lol.

We have the monthly "worst case" cash burn position for both the Aviation Division and Energy Division ( excluding Stobart Air) and that suggests STOB is very well placed to ride out the virus / lockdowns / quarantines, but it does depend on losing Stobart Air.

So any news on it's sale or a vaccine / effective airport testing, should be a big positive here. Lack of news the opposite.

I'll continue to trade here on dips, and home my " free shares".

Rarely a full day here with STOB.

G

Volcano - yes been in and out of CRST this summer, I remember saying to Tav back in June over there that he'd be ok with his 2.24 buy in over the medium term even though it dropped back down to sub £2 at end end of the summer. A very nice pick up since then.

Have spent too much time watching the US election play out this week. Need to hunt out a couple more trading plays for the coming days. Will prob take a look at some of my usual trading plays looking for dip entries. I see EMG seems to have settled around £1.11 - £1.12.

With Tate I have my long term ho!d shares. But I'll regularly take a trade when it dips. The recent drop to sub £6 was a kind gift from the market.

G

Hi Volcano - looks like a strong open today for TATE I picked up my latest batch at just over £6 - didn't quite time the bottom. This share has been very kind to me trading wise.

G

Hi Volcano - did you have a little a nibble on TATE.

I watched the US Election till 5.00 am - kipped for 2 hours checked over the various rns news at 7.00 am.

Took a sofa nap to catch up till my better half got fed up with me and started "tidying & cleaning" around me. I took the hint and went for an afternoon walk !

Got to love the US election process, particularly when you throw Trump into the mix !

God best America !!

G

Well done Nige STOB often offers up trading profits, I made a little too this morning. Volcano did you catch a trade ?

G