Member Info for Gerry65

Hi Birddog - yep saw that update on PR NewsWire over on the ADFVN bb - Dr Biotech picked it up.

Lots to digest here. The BOD seems to have now flip flopped on the Energy Division monetisation, from the report, be interesting to see how revenues have recovered here.

There is no doubt the impact of the Liquidation will present challenges for ESKN under the termination agreement and attempts to sub lease the aircraft.

A strategic partnership from LSA, could be in the offering, though ESKN are in a bit of a financial hole, and don't have a great hand to play, the " Strategic partner" would appear to hold all the aces.

The terms under which ESKN are able to draw further funds from the Facility B banking agreement would have to be met. Mention of a modest equity raise, puts it right out there.

TOSCA will have much to say on any ongoing plans.

Feb end Annual report still due out by June end.

Never a dull day here. Looking like there will be fun and games on the open tomorrow, when to trade and how long to dip ones feet in here is the question.

gla

G

Hi Bingobear - its been coming. Feel for the staff and the passengers.

Red flags were the loss of the long term tender, and the lack of interest in thee sale of the Airline, then the collapse of the Ettyl deal.

Should be some interesting price action on Monday. Still feel TOSCA take this out for a low ball figure. Not doubt PI's will bear the short timeframe now to the full 1 year period at sub 40p.

Never a dull moment here.

Time for the cricket and footie over the weekend.

Gla

G

Hi Birddog - and to add to all the fun and games, we can't be too far away from the reporting of the annual accounts. They should make fun reading !

Looking like I may get a few trades in the 20's.

Gla

G

Emmm - not a great RNS to put out after trading close today.

Can Ettyl actually secure the necessary finance for the transaction.

Much for those invested to ponder about over the weekend.

TF - could that rubber ball ( Airline ) bounce back yet again. ESKN really seems to struggle to get it off the balance sheet.

Gla

G

Hi Birddog - I guessing most who remain interested are waiting on the end of year Financials, due in the next 2/3 weeks.

Info on the progress of the recovery of the Energy Division, and whether future profits there can sustain the annual exit costs from the airline, and operating costs at Southend through to Feb 2022, at the very least will be pertinent, in the short term.

Points to consider, will be projected income at Southend this summer - probably very challenging to judge, and any likely leeway within the 2 RCF's. Hopefully the BOD will include forward C/F projections.

I've mentioned it a number of times in the last few months, I calculate the SP has been below the 40p level for something like 46 weeks now. There must be some risk of a low ball take out here, should it not recover. Which PI's may wish take into consideration when trading here.

gla

G

Hi Volcano - yep less trading for me too atm, went long on some good FTSE 100 bargains, still have a decent trading pot, ready to go if anything on my watch list comes into my price range.

Am holding here, lets see how the market reacts to tomorrows report, got some more to put in if there is a dip, if needs be.

Would expect to see DLG sitting plus £3.00 in the not too distance future, but only my personal view.

Conversely i wouldn't mind an overall market correction, say by 5 - 10%, to get some of those trading shares back down to more reasonable levels.

gla

G

https://www.cityam.com/secretive-billionaire-kenneth-dart-builds-5bn-stakes-in-big-tobacco/

He' been very busy snuffling up shares discarded by unhappy holder's in both BATS and IMB at low prices.

He must be very grateful to those that passed their shares back to Mr Market.

One man's sell is another's buy.

I have a small holding here, be interesting to see how the SP performs over the next 2/3 years.

GLA

G

Hi Volcano - hope all is well with you - I bought in yesterday @2.8735, ( used half of the money from cashing in my position @TSG )

I didn't find the bottom here, I don't expect any nasty surprises, in the up and coming trading report. That said if Mr Market disagrees on the day ) as is often the case ) I'll use the rest of the TSG funds to double up.

So many solid Companies have drifted against the market in the last 12 months, ( BA. / SGE / SMDS / SPT / ULVR /NG. ) and have been great long term pick ups for me ( the less said about GSK the better lol ).

GLA

G

TF - You'll recall how relieved i was when STOB originally off loaded the Airline through the doomed Connect deal, I mentioned at the time that it had de risked the balance sheet through the deal. unfortunately it came back like a bouncing ball.

This time around, I agree the financial backing of this start up purchaser is key. ESKN truly do not want the new owner to fail here.

I believe I've put up some cals. regarding TOSCA taking out the whole business at 40p ( depends on the sp performance ).

An assessment of the liabilities within a take out, balanced against the value of the two major assets, has surely been undertaken.

On completion of the sale the responsibility for another 480 staff is removed too.

TOSCA may be able to pick up the assets for a low ball price and sell the energy division in due course then sit on the airport covering costs until passengers return, when it can be sold at a decent market value.

The challenge for ESKN is cash flow through these difficult months. We need to hear that the Energy Division has returned to pre covid levels in the May report. If it can navigate the next 12 - 18 months within the updated RCF's without breeching covenants then all well and good. If not would TOSCA wish to see another plavcing ?

gla

G

TF - agree it's all about the annual impact on cash.

TOSCA and the other major holders have some decisions to make if the forward projections in the publication of the yr end figures in May dont make attractive reading.

TOSCA must be mulling over a low ball take out if the ssp remains under that key placing level of 40p. Surely better for them than another placing.

I suspect action here on the next 2 / 3 months.

Worth a trade at the right level depending on news.

Gla

G

TF - from our previous chats i feel we both knew ESKN would have to take a considerable hit to escape the lease liabilities.

Am going to re read the structure of the deal a couple more times. Quite a lot of small print to digest here.

The annual cash impact has been laid out for the next three years. Be interesting to understand how this start up purchaser is financed. At least the staff appear to be protected in the short term.

Will await the publication of the Annuals in May, which should provide projected cash flow forecasts, inclusive of the ongoing SA cash commitments.

Can the Energy Division revenues, cover the Airline Division losses, for a sufficient times to allow Southend to get planes flying, hopefully full of passengers ?

If the sp stays sub 40p through to June / July, then ESKN could be taken out for a low ball figure. TOSCA will likely need to decision, on its position. Not sure how the other major holders would react. Some are heavily under water here.

It's going to be interesting. Looks like more trading opportunities coming our way.

gla

G

Hi Castle - usually no smoke without fire.

We know Eskn has to off load the airline with the attached liabilities, to protect cash burn.

We need to see the details of any deal should one be thrashed out, though imv pretty much any deal to dump the airline should be good news. ( famous last words ).

We need to keep in view the length of time the sp has been sat below 40p. Something could give by June. Could be a cheap buy out, or possibly a bid war.

I could be wrong, time will tell.

Gla

G

You too Kong13 but you still don't get me do you - I'm looking for a fall in the sp down to sub 30p. Would feel happier picking up a few trades starting with a 2. So no ramping for me here.

I like to buy shares at prices I consider low, then hand them back to Mr Market at a profit. Hey but that is what we are all here for, is it not. Well most of us !

Will look in on Tues.

gla

G

Sorry Kong13 - I apologise for insulting you in my last post - an honest slip of my stubby fingers.

How could I describe you as "glass half full"

Really sorry - I should have said - you are quite right - "glass half empty"

Time for the Easter Holidays guys - enjoy.

Lets hope ESKN gives up more trading opportunities over the coming months.

gla

G

Hi Birddog - Got your cals.

can understand how you have thought through your figures.

Back in 2019 - 2020 when things were going well, I checked into the Southend Airport website daily, ( sad am I not ) to see how the Arrivals and departures were developing during the season.

i recall ( though my memory is hazy ) that the flight no's started to pick up from March peaking in July - Sept then dropped off to winter levels by the middle of October to November. The winter numbers were still reasonable but included a higher number of UK based flights.

I also recall movements were well spread through each of the 7 days of the week, I seem to recall Tues and Fri being busy days but my memory may be slipping. So I'd suggest that there is a peak, middle and winter split in the flight volumes, with the low period running from Nov - Feb end.

In both 2018 - 32,531 movements and 2019 - 36,327 movements there was considerable growth available against permitted movements - 53300.

In truth our chats around whether the BID can get to 5M - then up to 7.5M and onwards and upwards are a little mute atm.

I still feel the Airline sale is key here, without it things are going to be tight. That was part of my decision to take profits off the table here.

Any thoughts on ESKN being rip for a T/ O if the sp remains below 40p for another 3 months ?

Kong13 - I'm only teasing - there must be a reason why you have decided to open an account here and post solely on Southend Airport, always to the negative. No posts on any other shares, and no explanation as to your motives. Clearly not to buy in cheap for a great return as many of us did at sub 20p, You were still "Mr Misery" when posting when the sp was sitting sub 19p back in Oct.

Btw Kong13 as I've mentioned on here quite a few times I'm looking for a sub 30p trade, so not adverse to some glass half full posts, that might help me get such an opportunity. Your motives are between you and your bathroom mirror my friend.

I'll stick with with an image I have of you up there in your roof counting your roof tiles lol. If someone with deep pockets does take over Southend, and has the cash to splash, I wonder how the council will deal with balancing a few complaints against the investment in the area.

gla

G

I bought SGE @ £5.74 in early Jan, have also picked up the div.

Felt this would recover, and the recent rise including today, is encouraging.

Am comfortable with this in my long term P/F.

Nothing goes in a straight line but would hope to see £6.50 and onwards, by the Summer.

GLA

G

G

Sorry for the double post this website is flaky, sometimes when you press the post button nothing happens - hence the double post.

ThamesGateway / Birddog - perhaps you could both put up calculations for passenger no's based on present allowable flight movements and load capacities.

What ever happens over the years Southend will expand imv.

Whether it be under ESKN's stewardship at a slightly slower pace, or by way of a T/O and an accelerated pace, Kong13 is going to have to deal with those flights rattling his roof tiles !!

GLA

G

Hi Birddog - to me little has changed here from my posts back on 11th March. If they don't sell the Airline then the performance of the Energy Division will be key to keeping ESKN afloat long enough to get passengers through the terminal doors.

Personally I suspect that the Summer 2021 season will be adversely effected by Covid. It may well be that ESKN should have placed for an extra £50M last summer.

Did I see recently that the BOD have a 20M passenger expansion ambition !

The calculation as to what the airport can currently achieve is down to numbers I think - No of passenger allowable Movements X no of passengers per flight. Are the figures below still current :

https://d1z15fh6odiy9s.cloudfront.net/files/operational-controlslondon-southend-airport-operational-controls-summary-table-46ed516d.pdf

This purely deals with air traffic and doesn't deal with additional infrastructure on the ground. That said - several expansion plans have been published.

Shareholders had every reason to believe that the airports popularity would take 2020 - 2021 then 2021 - 2022 through 3.5M - up to the 4m - 5M range, unfortunately Covid scuppered any expectations.

We chatted last autumn around the profitability of the Airport, and the Annuals including the 2019 summer season when they came through a couple of months ago seem to confirm, my previous thoughts, and confirm that the BOD's view on break even passenger no's for the Airport for anyone of a fair minded view.

Looking forward, without any Airline sale, the next info will be the Feb end Finals published at the end of May. They should make interesting reading. Much also depends on what Doris decides on Air Travel this summer.

Another key point is that since the placing the SP has now sat below 40p for over 9 months, surely TOSCA must be considering a T/O bid for the remaining 70% of the shares, at 40p that's only £175m i think. That could produce a bidding war, perhaps, but I took the view to take some profits off the table earlier this year.

Something will have to give somewhere along the line. Someone with bigger pockets than ESKN could snap up the Group on the cheap. Sell off the Energy Division to cover the bank debt, lease liabilities and perhaps the bond too. Then have a nice little asset in Southend Airport.

G

Hi Birddog - to me little has changed here from my posts back on 11th March. If they don't sell the Airline then the performance of the Energy Division will be key to keeping ESKN afloat long enough to get passengers through the terminal doors.

Personally I suspect that the Summer 2021 season will be adversely effected by Covid. It may well be that ESKN should have placed for an extra £50M last summer.

Did I see recently that the BOD have a 20M passenger expansion ambition !

The calculation as to what the airport can currently achieve is down to numbers I think - No of passenger allowable Movements X no of passengers per flight. Are the figures below still current :

https://d1z15fh6odiy9s.cloudfront.net/files/operational-controlslondon-southend-airport-operational-controls-summary-table-46ed516d.pdf

This purely deals with air traffic and doesn't deal with additional infrastructure on the ground. That said - several expansion plans have been published.

Shareholders had every reason to believe that the airports popularity would take 2020 - 2021 then 2021 - 2022 through 3.5M - up to the 4m - 5M range, unfortunately Covid scuppered any expectations.

We chatted last autumn around the profitability of the Airport, and the Annuals including the 2019 summer season when they came through a couple of months ago seem to confirm, my previous thoughts, and confirm that the BOD's view on break even passenger no's for the Airport for anyone of a fair minded view.

Looking forward, without any Airline sale, the next info will be the Feb end Finals published at the end of May. They should make interesting reading. Much also depends on what Doris decides on Air Travel this summer.

Another key point is that since the placing the SP has now sat below 40p for over 9 months, surely TOSCA must be considering a T/O bid for the remaining 70% of the shares, at 40p that's only £175m i think. That could produce a bidding war, perhaps, but I took the view to take some profits off the table earlier this year.

Something will have to give somewhere along the line. Someone with bigger pockets than ESKN could snap up the Group on the cheap. Sell off the Energy Division to cover the bank debt, lease liabilities and perhaps the bond too. Then have a nice little asset in Southend Airport.

G

KONG13 - you are so right there this one gives and gives and gives. If you trade it. I'm hoping it will drift into the 20's though I'll look for news each day.

1 - 1.5p movement is all one needs. Lovely. One of that batch of shares with no stamp duty. But you'll know that.

I guess whatever happens with ESKN, the airport will be there, who will ultimately own it is open to speculation. Perhaps for all those people living in the area, who value its contribution a buy out by a company with deep pockets could be the best solution.

Additional expenditure could push forward the expansion plans, quite quickly, preparing Southend for many years to come, and helping hit those passenger growth targets.

G