Member Info for Gerry65

Toffeeman - Ref the Invesco move, - I'd be expecting a TR1 soon to advise who picked up that Holding - circa 37m shares in total.

No effect on sp. or any large trades showing - so it looks like a possible switch of corporate holder. Time will tell.

G

HI Volcano - yes you mentioned you were Trading EMG when we chatted on the other bb, in early Dec. I put it on my watchlist, will take another look it and HGM.

With HFD I'll look for a buy in price, after the next trading figures are out.

G

Hi Tav - Yes agree the high woes seem to be continuing. The market is very nervous around retail atm. I sold out my TSCO holding yesterday, got £ 2.57, and a decent profit. It wasn't that I was unhappy with TSCO - I just felt that the whole sector was going to get dragged through the mud over Xmas sales / winter revenues. I'll hope to re buy TSCO in the Spring. I seem to have dodged a bullet, on TPT following its Q1 trading report on Weds. ( though there is time for the market to drag it down so not relaxing yet lol ).

I've just glance read the SDRY Xmas figures, which look a real car crash. I had my finger over the buy button on CARD yesterday, at 1.10 but held off, thankfully. Bought into BBOX instead.

Hopefully with HFD is it just a case of market nerves, as we approach a trading report. It will be helpful if the BOD is able to reaffirm, that it will hold the final div at 8p for this year. With a confirmation for the YR21 total div at 12p.

G

Hi Volcano - Happy new year.

HFD reported its Q3 trading figures on the 10th Jan, last year so I'm guessing the figures are due any day - though I'm not sure exactly when.

The market continues to jump on any weak forward forecasts by Co's - particularly for anything retail related atm. Maybe HFD will report better than expected Xmas sales.

I'm on the sidelines here but have watched HFD, with interest over recent months following a buy recommendation from a poster on a different bb, last year. though since the time that HFD was recommended the SP has dropped from £2.40 to present levels. The present Mcap of £293M for this one seems very low to me.

At least holders here pick up the interim div.of 6.18p on the 18th Jan.

Going forward though HFD have announced that this years final div will be reduced to 8p. Then moving forward to YR21 the BOD plans to reduce total annual div to 12p ( as reported in the RNS 7th Nov. ). At the present share price of say circa £1.50 that's still 8%. Which may on reflection look generous if the SP remains at these levels.

Still plenty of free cash flow here. Be interesting to see how online sales growth is progressing. 85% of online sales are still picked up in store, which can be seen as an opportunity for cross sales. Though it also does mean HFD needs to retain its store outlet structure.

What are others views on HFD ?

gla

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HI TF - yes I read that RNS over on AAOG earlier today.,bit of a shocker, though I guess it was partially expected, with the delay to report, by the end of Nov as had previously been promised. Sorry for your loss, hopefully you only had small punt money in there, and it was a small part of your overall portfolio.

I'm just back from the gym, and have closed out my latest trade, from yesterday here and pocketed the profit by way of additional shares to my "free carry STOB shares".

No doubt STOB will rise further now I've losed out - but I don't really like carrying a day trade on election day. I like to have 3/4 shares to go to on results day morning, depending on which way it goes. Got my War Chest ready, could be some opportunities tomorrow morning.

If STOB drops back below 1.10 I'll look for another trade, to build up my holding.

gla

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TF - i actually ran out of characters in that latest post lol.

I'm glad you have now acknowledged the strengthening of the balance sheet, following the re valuation of the Energy Division.

I'm genuinely hoping that you'll now quote the correct intangibles position, sure you would not want to mislead this bb, by mistake.

I'd welcome your post with your personal div savings calculation , year on year, if you'd be so kind.

Also an acceptance as to the RCF headroom would be nice my friend.

As to the Bond, perhaps a reply to my alternative options available.

I'm not too fussed if you leave Carlisle to one side, not too worried if you don't feel the need to reply to the points I raised there, as it's a side show in comparison to Southend, and really not central to the STOB growth story.

Only another 4 5 years till the Feb 2024 finals are reported in May 2024. I'll be here to debate with you during this time frame as an invested LTH, if you so wish. Maybe one day you may be encouraged to invest too, one never can tell.

BTW yes i notice AAOG was sitting at 2.20 on the bid. I am surprised that there has been no RNS on the availability of the rig. Did the BOD not promise news by Nov end. It's looking like Q2 at the earliest now. Still I keep an eye on things over there, as it could move with news. It's on my watchlist for a possible punt if the news and price is right.

All the best for this evening, my friend - I'll look in tomorrow.

gla

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TF - yet again you repost your mantra without acknowledging or responding to the answers and points I've raised. Why would that be I wonder ?

Let's break down the debt - if we must ! - RCF - £29M headroom with facilities not up for review till Jan 2022. Though STOB have said they may wish to renegotiate earlier in connection with expansion plans. I'm guessing if a successful refinance takes place will you be suggesting that the Bank's are wrong and haven't done due diligence?

Cash on a/c is £7.7M in last financials. Moving on to the Div saving, - perhaps you'd like to place on record in your reply how much the reduction in div from 15p per share 2018 - 2019, to 3p per share 2019 -2020 will improve cash availability, this year. Then provide this bb, with your calculation as to the cash savings for 2020 - 2021, in relation to the amount paid out in year 2018 -2019. Shouldn't be too hard for you. Can't think of any genuine reason why you wouldn't want to provide these figures - can you ?

Revenues - 6 months to Aug 2019 - Aviation up 25.8% / Energy up 43.5%. ( accepted capex covered by £50 M bond raise and divs eaten into this ).

The Bond - its not repayable till 2024. The wording on the RNS is clear to me - and its been further clarified by the BOD in the interim RNS - "There are no changes to the status or term of the bonds. That position was not affected by the decision made by Eddie Stobart Logistics to suspend its dividend and shares, nor is it impacted by a possible change of ownership. Despite recent events, there remains considerable value in the Eddie Stobart brand which continues to be owned by Stobart Group".

The RNS also goes on to explain why the Bond sits in the current liabilities section of the accounts, But rather than explaining that to you here - I'm going to leave you to read the RNS yourself. Hope you don't mind that my friend - its all explained in black and white !

Lease arrangements - do you have any concerns you'd like to share with this bb ?

You mention to write down of the ESL asset, but conveniently only mention the additional 10% and not the earlier write down from the original valuation in the Feb end accounts - why would you wish to avoid this prudent accounting i wonder ?

Carlisle - have you looked at the video of the works completed on the spare acreage - and the return on the distribution centre, warehousing and hub. Or does that not fit in with your stated view that Carlisle is a joke lol.

So in conclusion for this evening i'd suggest to you that STOB is not cash strapped, nor does it have to review it's financing atm. Though It has said it wishes to perhaps restructure for the purpose of further capex at Southend. Surely if this is secured future planned developments can proceed at a pace with Bank banking - not a bad thing would you not agree ?

Answers to your questions are available to you deep in the RNS.

G

Hi Volcano - how's things. Been so wrapped up in posting replies back to TF, that I lost track of the time and missed the market close, haven't closed out my early morning STOB trade today - but hey ho - it looks like STOB is up around 4% + Will decide what to do tomorrow morning. lol.

G

https://d1z15fh6odiy9s.cloudfront.net/files/lsaannualreport2018-2019finalweb2-f8faabf6.pdf

Hope this link works ok - for those that don't enjoy reading the detailed accounting info in the rns, but like the Southend Airport growth story !

gla

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TF - more on debt / cash / bond.

STOB's RCF is £80M and debt in Aug stood at £51M ( headroom of £29M - add in cash on a/c at £7.7M and that's £36.7M available ).

The review of the facility is not until Jan 2022 - two years away, though based on the speed of developments, perhaps STOB will attempt to renegotiate it earlier.

The reinvestment of the div, will also assist cashflow and allow further capex will it not ? STOB paid out 15p per share in divs in the year to Feb 2019. This year to Feb 2020 this has been reduced to 3p, which provides, a massive additional boost to capex projects.

The Bond - its not repayable till 2024. STOB have several options, at this moment in time the value of the ESL holding cannot be assessed for spring 2024, can it ? In addition it could be rolled over, to a replacement bond - possibly underpinned by other assets. Do you not think the Airport will have been independently revalued at that time? It could be repaid by free cash- should growth expectations come to delivery. Or it could be repaid from the sale of non core assets - could it not ?

Surely your comment around "eating cash " is based on your bearish view built - I would suggest on your initial confusion here. We want STOB to expand , we want capex, we want growth. From Feb through to Aug a further £19.7M was invested in Southend Airport, and there is more to come. lol

I accept, STOB is still on a journey and whilst it develops its two main divisions, over the coming months and years, we can continue to debate, though I'd ask that you balance your concerns around intangibles, ( quoted wrongly ) with the re valuation of the Energy Division,let's see what the NAV is in the year end account to Feb 2020 end.

Turing to cashflow, I'd kindly ask you to acknowledge the RCF headroom and cash on account, together with the increased revenues, and div savings.

As to Carlisle, if you think you need to mention you feel its a joke as fine. It's your view. What are your views on the 3 phrased developments, at Carlisle to the warehousing and distribution centre / hubs ?

gla

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TF - Thought I'd respond to your latest bearish post, they seem to come through quite regularly, ever since your confused first post here back in Aug.

You continue your mantra ( cash / debt / Bond / intangibles - linked with your view on Carlisle Airport ). Whilst all these points have been covered by myself and others to you several times in the past few months, I guess as another few days have passed and you have raised them again -I'll respond again with a bullish view on STOB. I'll remind you that my comments are based on a medium to long term viewpoint. looking forward to 2024.

In the meantime whilst STOB develops I'm happy to debate matters with you, monthly, weekly or even daily basis. Though it may become somewhat boring to others here if I just have to cover areas of concern that you have already raised as opposed to any RNS updates or new news !

Surely STOB is to be commended on developing two major divisions, Energy and Aviation, in such a short time frame. The latest interims demonstrated, the potential for future revenue streams, based on the expansions declared in the recent figures.

The group has spent £170M on developing Southend Airport alone since its purchase. How else to you create such a "jewel" without expenditure my friend ? We know of the future planning applications recently submitted, to develop the airport further.

Capex to create present and future income streams requires financing. Debt is not a bad thing, is it not when it is applied to achieve growth, with increased future revenue streams which then also create asset revaluations, as we have seen with the independent re valuation of the Energy Division.

I notice you never mention this revaluation in your posts. To remind everyone its been re vaule at £237M from £100M three years ago. But you seem to have an almost paranoia over intangibles. Perhaps when quoted them you'd kindly provide this bb, with the correct figure, following the write down in the Aug 2019 interims - it's not £100m as you keep mis posting.

I'm not going to provide you with the correct figure - i'll leave you to read the latest financial report, for that info. You will if you have fully read the financials, understand that STOB has already written down its ESL valuation, not once but twice this year, taking account of the ESL sp drop from 100p - 71p before suspension, and then later by a further 10% on top.

gla

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check google for Co's with a registered address 33 -38 Jermyn Street London SW 1Y 6DN.

Full list of all 158 companies is available.

G

ESL - DBAY deal voted through -RNS to confirm:

The Board of Directors of Eddie Stobart Logistics plc (AIM: ESL), a leading UK end-to-end supply chain, transport and logistics group is pleased to announce that at the General Meeting of Shareholders held earlier today, a resolution was passed approving a Proposed Transaction whereby Marcelos Limited ("Marcelos"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DouglasBay Capital III Fund LP (the "Fund"), a fund managed by DBAY Advisors Limited ("DBAY"), will acquire a 51% stake in Greenwhitestar Acquisitions Limited, which is currently a wholly-owned Subsidiary of the Company and in turn holds the Company's interests in the trading entities of the Group, and DBAY will agree to (directly or indirectly) inject approximately £55m of new financing into the Group's operations through the Interim PIK Facility and the PIK Facility, which will be used to provide necessary liquidity (the "Proposed Transaction").

gla

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Hi Volcano - I've been reading up on Man Group following your mention of it a week or so ago. I like shares where there is no stamp duty. I spent a number years holding Old Mutual in my portfolio. I waited on QLT - I didn't buy in on the IPO, as I don't trust the initial valuations. I bought in on the 8th 2018 @ just under 1.31 - not a massive div for that one, its doing ok but i wouldn't say it's locked into my long term holdings. Was thinking of closing it out to add to my election day fund lol. But I'm still holding atm.

gla

G

Hi TF - that's the nub of it - future revenues, being re invested.

STOB reviewed intangibles, during the interims, and as with all Co's will continue to do so, no doubt when the Yr end to Feb 2020 Finals are reported in the spring, a further assessment will be taken. Maybe at the same time other assets will also be restated, as was the NAV of the Energy division last June more than doubling from £100M to £237M in three years.

I must admit each time you post I have a sneaky, look over on your AAOG bb ( Were you not expecting news on the rig over there by the end of Nov ? ) Is it now to be 2020 Q2 ? Could be a winter of discontent,over there without positive news, 46 posts, from those on either side of the discussion I see today - so far. Don't lose faith - shares often come out of the dog house at the most unexpected times lol.

gla

G

Hi Volcano - I too have been in and out of several of those shares that you list at one time and another.

AAL hurts a little for me I bought in on the crash in early 2016, but then bailed at £9.02 on the 16th Aug 2016, with what I felt at the time was a really great deal, smugly took my profit and patted myself on the back only to see AAL continue northwards - regrettably without me lol - hey ho - you live and learn.

I've attached another media report on the plans at Southend :

https://www.braintreeandwithamtimes.co.uk/news/south_essex_news/18074129.southend-airport-hotel-plans-lodged/

The planned upgrades to the runway will allow Southend to take both Boeing 737-800 aircraft and Airbus 321 aircraft - that'll be handy.

gla

G

Hi TF - would you accept that cashflow withing the group is improved to the sum of £44m pa now that future divs are to be re invested. ( As I suggested in an earlier post that's circa £132M over the next three years ).

Revenues are increasing in both the Energy and Aviation divisions and there remains further non core asset sale opportunities to come.

Carlisle is not a major part of the overall business, and shouldn't be considered as such. Hopefully it will be run at a profit. The key is Southend Airport, which with the Bio Mass business, is I'd suggest why LTH's are invested here .

Let's wait and watch how things pan out over on ESL, I'd take any forward projections to the value of the security of the bond with a pinch of salt atm. The spring of 2014 is some time away, and who can say where ESL will be in that time frame. As a bondholder I'd be a little disappointed that with no ESL div available my return would be reduced, but that's the way of things.

The STOB bod were either visionary or fortunate, in how it dealt with the the ESL shareholding, from the time of the IPO. Much was sold down and passed on the LTH's with the previous divs. The remainder lodged as security for the £50m bond this spring. In hindsight, lets say they made a number of astute business decisions.

We now await news on planning for the next stage of the 2nd hotel at Southend, and then the car park expansions, and terminal & runway developments.

It's a growth story, some may not like how each chapter in the "STOB growth" book pans out - if that's the case I'd suggest stop reading it and pick up another book. For those that are impressed with how STOB have taken a regional Airport and created such a "jewel" then continue reading lol.

gla

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Hi Volcano - I respect the office but regrettably not the man. But as with all Presidents, and most world leaders, history will judge him at the end of his tenure on his achievements.

I've got circa 20 long term shares, and in truth I rarely trade them, nor worry too much about the rises and dips, I just collect the divs on the way.

Generally i hold around 5 - 10 % of my overall share portfolio, for trades, some have worked out well, in others I've not covered myself in glory lol. But I enjoy the trading aspect - so its more of a hobby I guess.

gla

G

Hi Volcano - good call on your STOB trade today, its one of only a few in my portfolio, that was blue today.

I had a feeling that as we closed in on election day buying opportunities would present themselves. But we've had the added effect of the orange faced one, today. only 10 FTSE shares blue today.

Not much we can do with him but to react to effects of his decisions, tweets, and statements and look to pick up quality shares on the cheap. I'd expect more controversy from him tomorrow. Sure there will be plenty of bargains out there lol.

gla

G

I see that the plans for the 1st stage of the new proposed hotel at Southend Airport ( 132 rooms ) have now been submitted to Southend Council. Over the 3 stages, plans are to increase to a total of 400 rooms. STOB now wish to build on the success of the existing hotel at the airport, in line with their expansion plans.

TF - you seem overly concerned around the sitn over on ESL, and your links to future funding / refinancing. The STOB bod seem less so, as the expansion conitinues at a pace ! I agree pi's over on ESL who bought on the IPO must be wondering what happened. But fortunately, STOB quickly sold down much of this non core asset, then utilised the remaining ESL shareholding to secure the £50m bond raise. The Bod has also stated the actual position in relation to the bond raise in the interims RNS, which I previously reminded you.

Now that STOB is to re invest the divs, the co.will create a net potential positive cashflow of circa £132m over the next 3 years. In addition the remaining non core assets, ( £80m ) can now to sold off in timely fashion.

In addition The Energy Division NAV has been independently revalued at £237m this June 2019 , up from £100m as at June 2016. An impressive performance, with which i'd suggest most would agree.

What NAV could be placed on the airport, in 3 years time is open to question. May I venture to suggest that the answer to that question is what keeps many so very interested in the STOB growth story.

gla

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