Member Info for Gerry65

Hi Tav - I guess the actual position won't be known untill Financial statements are provided. I fully understand your position from your posts both at the time of the bailout and your present posts over on the Flyb bb.

I felt that the disposal of Stobart Air and Proprius was the right move from STOB, allowing the Aviation Division to focus on Southend. Valuations can be challenging, in these situations. Very much the case with the value many placed on Flybe I guess.

I suspect that the present developments may provide opportunities for all Airlines.

Am looking forward to see how the Govt moves forward on this. Environmental opposition and road and rail concerns.

Gla

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Agreed Compass, Govt. have created a rod for their own back here.

Not surprised by the interventions from BA and Ryanair. Watched Micheal O'leary's interview on Sky, which was quite assuming. Whilst trashing Branson continually, suggesting Flybe should not be supported, he dodged the key question as to would Ryanair be prepared to run any routes given up by Flybe several times lol.

Where were Ryanair when Connect bailed out Flybe this time last year.

It looks like Connect took an opportunity here, to test the Govt. giving it a very limited time frame to make a decision, testing its resolve to stand by its election pledges around "supporting all regions of the uk".

Actual info on any deal agreed is still limited. There is much speculation. No airline likes APD, might be a number of them see this as an opportunity to pressurise the Govt.

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Hi Volcano - picked your message over on Stob. Been in and out on tlw today and it looks like i've missed today's rise on hgm.

We must be due a trading report here any day now. Do you know when its out ?

cheers

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Hopefully the latest RNS, will put to bed some of the more extreme rubbish posted on the Flyb bb, from disgruntled ex Flyb pi's.

STOB confirm that the shareholder consortium has provided £110m to Connect Airways, with STOB stating it has invested £45m, which is higher than 30% but perhaps the difference is in how Stobart Air and Propius has been valued.

APD does pose a challenge to Airlines. i understand its payment is at point of sale. However credit card co's hold back payments. i recall back in Jan during the T/O a figure of £50m was quoted as being held back by the ex BOD of Flyb, which created the additional cashflow pressures.

I can see the issue from both the airlines view and from the view of the credit card co's, but the present situation is far from ideal.
The shareholders have committed further funds, if needed ( STOB £9m).

STOB have estimated that the Flyb planned new weekly flights from Southend this summer will add another 500k of annual passengers through Southend pa.

gla

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I see that TR1 i was expecting is out this morning and its Tosca that have picked up those shares from Invesco and Tinkler, to become STOB's major shareholder at 18.8 %
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Hi Compass - Agree - I'm delighted to see Tinkler out. Been a bad smell around the place since his sacking by the BOD for his misdemeanors.

Looking at the recent TRI's - I'm expecting to see an additional RNS to advise who has picked up both his holding and the remainder of the Invesco reduction.

It's only a rough calculation on my part but circa 8 -10% needs to be declared, after the recent round of TR1's, if bought by one institution.

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Hi Volcano - see the sp bounced off those lows, did you trade it today ?

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Hopefully all of them. Been hoping he would move on ever since he was kicked out.

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Wonder

Is that him gone Compass ( latest rns ) hopefully.

So Der who picked up the shares.

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Sorry - deferral

Compass - agree Govt should not get involved here.

If the Flyb business model is flawed, referral of tax will not ultimately resolve matters.

Maybe better for STOB if Flyb does go into administration.

Focus on Energy Division and Southend Airport.

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Sky reporting now that Govt. Is between a rock and a hard place regards Flyb and APD.

It needs to consider regional connectivity, the value of the revenue it raises for the Treasury, and pressures from Environmental lobbyists.

Fun and games today.

Gla

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Compass - agree think on balance the Govt. should steer clear.

Any commitment now, whilst, perhaps, popular post election, could be viewed as a mistake, with hindsight 2/3 down the line.

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Tav - do you have a link to any actual concrete up to date investment figures by Connect, be helpful to further assess the situation.

Think the Govt need to be careful here. Any support, creates a precedent, and then the Govt and tax payers become directly involved.

If the business model is unsustainable, a decision now by the Govt. could create problems for it further down the line. That said, refusing support, could disappoint many in various regions in the Country.

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Tav - the Flyb business model has been a busted flush for years. I recall reading many toxic posts over on the Flyb bb, at the 1p per share T/O deal. In truth any pi's who received 1p a share fell into two groups. 1) lth's who held over the years and didn't bother to read or perhaps didn't understand the content of the numerous rns. 2) Those that were seduced by the rampers, quoting bidding wars, and easy money.

I made a few quid on a couple of Flyb trades, but i did have misgivings around how much it would cost Connect to turn Flyb around. Credit card co's holding back payments and APD are major challenges.

Perhaps now some ex Flyb pi's may accept the dire situation that Flyb was and still is in.

Maybe this is one STOB should consider walking away from. Controversial, i accept.

As for the Govt becoming involved at this stage, well , deferred APD, would provide time, but should the business model prove unsustainable, further down the line, then the Govt could find itself in a position where it had to make future challenging and potentially unpopular decisions.

I remain very positive for STOB, in the Energy Division and at Southend Airport.

Should be an interesting day.

gla

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It seems Sky have the breaking news on Flyb.

Latest update, indicates the APD payments are proving a challenge, and Sky report that that the carrier has asked Whitehall if it can find a way to delay payments, during the quieter winter months.

Sky also reports that both Stobart and Cyrus, have jointly expressed reservations regarding future cash injections, without Govt. support.

Info provided remains light on facts, and high speculation.

interesting that Stobart and Cyrus seem to be on the same page. those that followed the structuring of Connect will recall that part of Stob's investment as well as disposing of Everdeal and Propuis, was to subscribe shares in STOB to Cyrus, at £1.50. Just checked and Cyrus still hold 8.61% of STOB shares, i believe its the 3rd or 4th major shareholder here.

The Connect consortium, unabled Stobart Aviation to focus on Southend and Stobart Aviation Services.

gla

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Hi Compass, Iooks like Tosca picked up the shares from Invesco who reduced their holding down to 14.02% at the last TR1, on the 9th Jan. I'd guess Invesco maybe are looking to move away from Woodford links.

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LTI -as you say 12p down today, is news now factored in, could well be the case.

LTH's have the interim div to collect on the 18th.

For those looking for a buy in price the final div is a long way away at the end of Aug.

I'd be looking to trade it for short term gains.

Thx for that Volcano - so its Thursday for the trading statement.

gla

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Volcano - good figures from Ryanair up 5.7 % today with EZJ also up 3.75 % and Wizz up 6.4 %.

All with routes and flights in and out of Southend Airport.

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