Member Info for Gerry65

The 62m ESL share transaction at 6p has raised lots of speculation over on the ESL adfvn chat board.

Matters are moving towards a conclusion. Interesting times.

Morning Volcano - made the decision to close out my DOM holding this morning after a nice run up in the last few months, and switched the funds to add to my BP holding. Watch the oil price fall further and the $ weaken against the £. Whilst everyone orders in pizzas lol.

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Hi Volcano - I'm waiting for the direction of travel with STOB over the next few days. Trading looks a little light today.

Similarly on FRES i got in and out and only really bought on price. I need to study it more closely, I'm more generally into oil & gas shares than precious metals. I count myself a little lucky on this week's trade, though I'd go back in again if it drops back again.

Not sure how much trading i'll do in the next week or so, I'm keeping a close eye on the election, and waiting for US / China trade news. My NG ( ex div dates due ) and UU shares are performing strongly ( as they usually do during the run ups to elections ) which suggests the market is reasonably confident that an outright Labour majority is unlikely. The FTSE is up 350 pts since its low point on the 3rd October, I've closed out a couple of long term positions, to give me a decent trading fund, should we get a hung Parliament, which would likely create a little market uncertainty, and maybe provide some opportunities.

In the meantime I'll only look to trade in a few shares where I've traded regularly before. I don't want to get locked in and miss any opportunities, around election result time.

As usual STOB is the first share I look at each day, followed by a few other regular favs.

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Hi Volcano - maybe a good thing if Tinkler got involved with ESL again.

Give him something to do with his time. i know some hold him in high regard, but he's been a pain in the backside for the STOB bod since his sacking.

i'd be happy if he had to sell off more of his STOB shares to cover some of the costs of any bid. i feel he has been hanging around like a bad smell, with his STOB holding. I'd be happy if he reduced his holding here even if it might depress the sp for a short time, any shares would quickly be mopped up. I've got my finger on the buy button lol.

( btw i got lucky on FRES today, in and out ).

Never a dull moment with STOB. Should be an interesting few weeks for ESL.

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Another contract confirmation and declared shorts fall below 8% - strong start to the week.

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Hi Volcano - my problem is i go to the gym usually Mon / Weds / Fri mornings and i often come back to see I've missed another opportunity here.

I'm going to take another look at HOC / CEY / FRESS this afternoon - all been on my watchlist for a while but I need to update myself. Do recent falls represent value or maybe falling knives lol.

Am looking for a further entry point here in STOB this week. When its in this range it looks both good value and a definite opportunity for a quick 3 / 4p trade.

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Hi Clive - and you are absolutely correct, as the award was provided by way of shares and not cash. The team within the Energy Division are completely aligned with shareholders, and its very much in their interests to maximise the potential of their Division.

Its also a further incentive for the Aviation to focus their efforts on their incentive scheme, to meet their challenging targets. As i said earlier, we should be onside and hope they can achieve their bonus awards within the earliest reasonable time frames, as at that time all lth's will also benefit from the re rate of the sp, on the back of the success of the airport.

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Hi Clive

i take your point regarding the div but we'd probably be looking at maybe up up to 6p pa. at the most. you can make much more than that with a few quick day trades, at these levels.

With the div being re invested, that's £44m pa. say circa £130m over the next three years available for investment into the two main divisions, particularly Into Southend Airport.

This additional cash for capex will speed up the further infrastructure plans at Southend, helping support STOB's exciting expansion plans for passenger numbers.

Growth has been impressive some would say stunning. let's look to the next milestone - 5m passengers by Yr end Feb 2023.

During the next three years we may have picked up say 18p in divs, against this we will have the expected re rating of the sp based on the re rate of the NAV of the airport.

I'm sticking with this one and adding on the dips. it fits in well within my portfolio.

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Rouge River - have to agree with your comment on the Institutional shorts - on the 9th Nov 2017 Short interest Tracker quoted declarable BAB shorts at 0.7 %.

By mid Jan 2019 shorts were sitting at circa 8.5% and the sp was around £5.00. The media spin for BAB was somewhat negative particularly the Times and the Telegraph who tripped over themselves to publish "the Boatman" one page website, as to their motives, I'll leave that for others to decide.

Throughout it all BAB just got on with business. To me the future looks much brighter, as we move towards 2020. With the recent trading info and contract wins.

With the sp sitting at £5.86 over the weekend and Institutional shorts still at 8.52%, it looks like something will have to give.

Marshall Wace LLP, Gladstone Capital Management LLP, AQR Capital Management, LLC and AKO Capital LLP for AKO Master Fund Limited have reduced their positions slightly in the last month. Those that decided to increase their positions this month must be feeling a little uncomfortable.

When they decide to close out they will be tripping over themselves.( saw this before in TLW in 2017 /18 where shorts went form 16.29 % to nil in 24 months ).

Bring on £6.00, and lets see what they decide do lol.

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There are quite rightly many posts here on the the present level of the TLW sp, and it's potential future movements over the short, medium and long term.

Back in the spring / summer of 2017 - institutional shorts were running at 14 - 15 %. when the sp was standing at similar levels. ( maybe slightly higher ).

Today there are no Institutional shorts, at levels that have to be declared, that I can see on "Short Interest Tracker".

So either the Institutional Shorts, remember the swift sp movement upwards, which had them falling over themselves to close positions through 2018 and don't want to get burnt again. Or they see a different medium to longer term outlook for TLW, this time around.

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Hi Leighmud

My reply - concluded :

Most companies look to set challenging incentive plans, with awards made available to management teams that achieve goals. My Friend - the fact that the Energy Management team and staff has managed to double the NAV of the Energy Division is great news. I've posted a media link below, relating to this subject :

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/902278/stobart-group-energy-bosses-get-reward-after-division-doubles-in-size-902278.html

I for one can't wait for the time when the Aviation Division management and staff achieve their Incentive scheme awards too. As by that time where would you see the revenues from Southend Airport, and indeed, it's upgraded NAV .

Stobart is not for all - its a growth share, with ambitious and challenging aspirations in both the Energy and Aviation Divisions. I'll continue to add to my personal "free carry" holding by trading and accumulating, on any dips.

Remember STOB is registered in Guernsey,so no stamp duty on trades !

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Hi Leighmud

My reply - continued:

My second comment to the wording of your post would be to remind you that the "award" under the SEIP was in the form of vested shares, designed to align fully the management of the Energy division with shareholder interests.

You mention in rightly in your post that the "award" was announced in Sept. But as the STOBART year end, isn't until February 2020, it hasn't actually as yet posted either a profit or a loss for this trading year. Those figures will be available to us in the late spring / early summer of next year.

Full details of the award :

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/STOB/stobart-group-ltd-vesting-of-stobart-energy-incentive-plan-bl17rqs1wd8jt3u.html

Yes additional shares were issued for the award, increasing the overall shares in issue to 375m. but no cash payments and no effect on cashflow, or on actual profit / loss for the year.

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In addition the award was not a cash payment, and as such I feel it's not right for you to link the award to a bottom line profit / loss.

Hi Leighmud - Welcome to the LSE chat boards, and in particular for choosing STOB for your first post. I'll look forward with interest to your future posts both here and on other bb's. Great to see that out of all the shares on the FTSE350, the Small Cap index, and the aim index, it's little old STOBART that caught your attention.

I'm taking your mis spelling of the Bio - Mass division in the title of your post as a little form of humour and fun lol.

I'll take this opportunity to reply to your your question.

Initially I'd have to ask you to reconsider the use of the wording "paying". It was in actual fact an "award" under the Energy Division Incentive Plan ( SEIP ). The SEIP was agreed in the 2016 agm and voted through by 98.6% of shareholders.

Full details are provided in the RNS dated 9th Sept. 2019. In order to achieve the "award" the management and staff of the Energy Division were tasked with challenging growth targets, which were measured by independent revaluation of the the Division. They should take all credit due to them that since the 2016 agm, we have witnessed tremendous growth in the Division. An independent valuer has now valued the equity of the Energy division at in excess of £210m as at 30 June 2019, compared to a starting valuation of £100m as at 30 June 2016.

A very creditable effort by all involved, imv.

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https://southendairport.com/news/ranked-best-airport-2019

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https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/18048392.celebration-airport-new-partnership-gets-underway/

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http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/349472/flybe-confirms-new-southend-routes

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Hi Volcano - profit is profit.

I closed out my AMER position this morning - got 19.04. I had hoped to get a lot more but decided with the news, this morning that it was better for me to get the cash and profit back into my trading fund. Been locked in there for longer than I wished but with an average of 15p, I can't complain, time to make these funds work again with new trades. My TLW buy on Weds is all over the place its been a real up down up day over there lol, will leave that to pan out.

I missed CRST today but have that and a few other to consider over the weekend.

Scoredagainsteps ( SAS ) - Do you know what % of this years passengers using Southend used their own cars or used the direct rail service ? Must admit I don't have the break down to hand.

Glyn Jones didn't mention timeframes within the video, but why not have lofty aspirations. Certainly the pressure at the other London airports for increasing expansion of passenger numbers at peak times plays into Southend's hands. Isn't Luton maxed out during the peak summer period ? Sure I read that earlier this year.

Thought that was a contributory factor in Ryanair, joining Easy Jet in basing planes at Southend.

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Hi Volcano -Have you traded today?

Looks like the market likes the decision to reinvest the divs, I've re watched the two news vids on the website, and I'll probably post them on here shortly with some a few thoughts. Looks like very exciting times at Southend Airport. To acquire a small airport in 2008, with just 2300 passengers pa. Then develop the terminals, the train station and links to London, the car parking, the runway, the tower and infrastructure, the hotel, the jet services, and logistics area etc is remarkable.

Well on the way to 2.3m passengers to FY20, and they indicate 3m to FY21. Much more to come here and with all the development, Southend still retains it's recognition as London's best airport, within customer satisfaction surveys. Makes you proud to be British lol.

Easy jet, Ryaniair, Wizz, Loganair, and Virgin Connect, all on board and supporting Southend.Oh heck - let's get the video up again lol:

https://www.stobartgroup.co.uk/stobart-group-highlights-growth-opportunities-at-its-southend-airport/

I see Glyn Jones, indicates in the video whilst discussing future developments at Southend that in the medium to longer term they are actually targeting passenger numbers to match Luton Airport ( that's 20m pa). Who's to say they won't achieve it.

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HI TF - sorry for ruining your supper, I've also sat on an aim share in the past taking the dilutions whilst waiting for the good news, guess many of us have. ( but you would have been 50% up overall - on the timeframes mentioned ).

Growth shares are not everyone's cup of tea. But when they motor they really can motor ( different industries but ASC /BOO / FEVR for example - though I'm not suggesting STOB will another of those lol ).

The ESL sitn. has been ongoing for months, and STOB has progressed ok. The bond does not mature till 2014, by which time I'm anticipating STOB will have traveled a long way down its growth road.

Tinkler has been bandied about as a downside to STOB for what 18 moths now, and in that time I've watched him take several wrong turns ( His FLYB investment being one of them ).

Intangibles are hard to value and can result in write downs. However if one was wary of Intangibles one would not invest in GSK where they sit on the balance sheet at £22,991M and ULVR where they sit on the balance sheet at £29,493M. Maybe extreme examples I do accept lol.

It's difficult for the BOD to buy sometimes with closed periods, but David Shearer, has taken his opportunity today, with a reasonable chunk of cash. That's no recommendation, of guaranteed future success, but I'm guessing he has some handle on the potential medium to long term value of STOB.

One thing is pretty much for certain the sp will close tomorrow at a different level than it's closed today, if it drops, you'll possibly be posting to the negative. Whereas I'd probably see it as another buying opportunity. If it rises I probably wouldn't post, but sit comfortably on my existing holding.

To me STOB as a growth share sits well in my overall portfolio. Anyway its a fun share as there always seems to be something to debate.

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Following the publication of the financials, David Shearer has picked up 100,000 shares @ 121p. He appears confident as to the medium to long term value of STOB. I'd take that as a positive statement of intent.

TF - your post 12.36, ever since your first post here on the back of the ESL suspension RNS you have been bearish. We first discussed STOB at that time when STOB shares were available to buy at 101.5p. At that time 23rd Aug. your AAOG shares had slipped to 4.15p, from a previous range around 10p.

I'm unsure of your average as you have acknowledged that you have averaged down several times. AAOG is now sitting at a mid price of 2.75p ( down a further 33% since 23rd Aug. ). I wonder have you completed a calculation as to where your profit would stand had you sold up your AAOG holding and bought into STOB back in August. Even at today sp think you'd have made circa 16%. Add back the 33% loss over the same timeframe over on AAOG, and you'd be up circa 50%.

Even if you remained unhappy with STOB after today's RNS you could have sold out this morning and bought a truckload more AAOG shares with your profits.

You must be interested in the STOB growth story, as you have sat on the sidelines over the last three months, with the occasional bearish post. In hindsight, do you not see this as an opportunity lost my friend.

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Hi Compass - STOB hold 11.8% of ESL stock. They held a lot more at the time of the ESL ipo, but sold it down and rewarded lth's with quarterly divs in 2017 & 2018. A great move with hindsight.

Much of the remainder is security for the £50m bond raised in May to progress the growth plans at Southend Airport and within the Energy division. More fortunate timing by STOB. The position ref. the bond is referenced in today's rns, as i mentioned to TF earlier.

TF - i do feel for you over on AAOG, and you have battled away to defend your investment. did you decide to average down, over the last few months ? I keep an eye on progress over there and may yet look for a trade, depending on when the rig becomes available and where the sp, sits when this finally comes to pass.

Turning back to STOB - yes as you said this morning over on AAOG you have been bearish on STOB ever since your first post back in the summer when you mixed up ESL and STOB, requiring several of us to explain your initial confusion. at the time i recall STOB was sitting around 102p if my memory serves. Whilst you were uncomfortable back then Volcano myself and others were day trading STOB and doing very well. i don't think you took the plunge though.

Volcano - congrats. looks lime another good days trading for you here on STOB.

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