Member Info for Genghis15

I'm afraid a co relying on its buyers to finance its st (?) cash problems is always going to mean SP weakness. the bullet should have been bitten long ago, and failure to do so indicates poot cashflow forecasting and planning.

There is no saying what the floor is here now, the market is merciless once a co is cash strapped, as TGR clearly is. Holders, of which thankfully I'm not one, must hope recent creditor/ debtor arrangements see the co thru. If not, a pretty ugly set of options face the BoD.

Https://twitter.com/Robin25461631/status/1700053193911140798?s=20

Broker note here shows further funding need of $38m, tho possibly partially offset by current cash (adj for MIIF inv) of $20 to $22m. No doubt this will easily be funded, but clarity on this is the final piece of the jigsaw.

I have no doubt funds will be found, the Q is how much further dilution, if any, or will it be debt?

Good news, and as others say ML cannot be far behind.....BUT by my calc the funding gap still stands at c. $30m.

DFS capex $185, less Piedmont $70m =$115m, less 50% PLL = $57.5m, less MIIF $27.9m (addnl $5m corporate) = $29.6m.

That's the big Q now, where does this come from, equity (raise or pardters), convo, debt?

I had hoped the MIIF deal would plug the gap, but unless I have missed something it doesn't.

Please advise if I have missed something here.

Panman

good points.

Hazbeen nothing to say.

Mb they can muddle thru......it's a good bet if they do.....who knows.

I fear Hazbeen is on the money. Given usual 90 day settlement, cash may not be sufficient to keep things rolling. It is possible offtakers mb induced to pay early by discounting, tho. Wait and see, but the co has a record of disappointment.

Cigam

Thanks 4 comments. OK, it's not unusual, and i guess often oes in hand with the higher risk jurisdictions, too. They say they have stockpiled product, which mb explains why offtakers were happy to prepay...tho it perhaps begs the Q as to why that stockpile wan't being shipped earlier.

hatChris

yes, your scenario is quite possible. I was pointing out the possible and many reasons for current SP weakness, not saying they cannot be overcome.

Anyone buying at these levels could do v well indeed,BUT....given market backdrop i suspect the fear factors i mention will predominate for some time yet. At the very least, the co now has a credibility mountain to climb.

Mb, amd mb not.

Ask yourself as a disinterested investor what your attitude would be to a co that was suspended for filing late accounts, is having the rely on its customers for advance payments (assuredly at a discount), has never yet reached cash b/even, has dubious company governance, is based in and does business in countries with poor governance and high corruption.

All this at a time of rising interest rates & tighter money, making raising capital more difficult.

The co finds itself in a classic growth trap at an unfortunate tine. Mb it can trade its way out and soar. But mb it can't.

All i can say is sorry for holders, luckily I'm sitting on the sidelines, but it is an experience I too have been through.

Beg pardon, eventually opened the presentation and the platfrm was very slick, well prsented. However my prev q re recording still stands, as i missed the presentation and only caught th Q&A.

Despite regustering I couldn't get in as I don't have Zoom and don't wish to install it. Will it be available in catch up in other formats/

PS. Investor Meet is a good platform for this kinda thing.

Well, i am no expert, but thy look v god to me. For comparison, ALL's Ewoyaa project in Ghana has mostly lower grades at reater depth from a quick glance across, in a project with anest IRR of 105%.

The Gr Al composite JV with RR also gone v quiet.

OK, BV, my mistake.

MF Well, oc, my comment alluded to the obvious. But I'm not conciously seeking to deramp, not sure I'd have much influence if I did. Anyway, Shishir has, it seems, steadied the ship somewhat SP wise this am with +ve production news, and restating how cash will be managed.

i don't have a buy in price ; I may never buy, and/or may miss the boat. But knowing the co as of old, I continue to watch, and if/when I'm confident on cash, i may come aboard,. Suffice to say I'm not at that point yet.

BV

There appear to be no blatant derampers here ; recent events would be a gold mine if any were. I have posted consistently, if infrequently, here , that my concern over the cash position deters investment until such is clarified. Those concerns have proved well founded, but remain unclarified., so for now, for me, the shares remain unattractive.

Stil, interesting that you think me a deramper, while Mf apparently thinks I'm stating the obvious.

Tx to Eastwood for a constructive, if perhaps inconclusive, response. As ever, we will all wait and see.

"that reason was laid at the feet of the auditors"..indeed it was ; "the Company's auditors requested additional time ". We are told this as due to holidays ; a poor excuse if true, or mb a convenient fig leaf>

Given all the comments in the AR re casg flow, I sus[ect the auditors balked cat rge going concern assurance until those assurances were given, This is only speculation on my part, tho.

i expect the suspension to be lifted soon ; mb it takes a day or few to get approval for relisting, does any one know? Mb the co isdelaying in hope of receiving the overdue VAT, which it could then combine as a goodnews item in the RNS. But the longer they remain suspended, the more many will suspect something else is afoot.

Even if all turns out well on relisting there will be reputational & SP damage., both from the fact of suspension, which looks like poor corp mgt/governance, and from the cashflow issues highlighted within. The extent of the fall will depend on the size of the rush for the exit, but if less than 20% I'd be mildly urprised.

Bv/Cigam

tx for helpful comments.

i would say tho that "Trade receivables are a cash equivalent" is true in pure BS terms but not exactly so when you are cash strapped! Which is why they are going cap in hand to ask for discounted early payment. And bear in mind the discount will not only b on that Bs figure, but mb on all sales? Could b a significant cost.

More broadly, i confess to not poring over every detail ( I just couldn't justify the time on a co I'm not currently invested in) so inyeresting points re inter co transactions, repayable? advances, etc. and oc it may be that they just scrape thru as increasing volumes start to feedthru to cash, even at discounted rates.

But there's a lot of uncertainty there, and it's uncertainty that the co seems determined to avoid discussing. When entities are not being open, imho the default assumption is that they don't want to frighten the horses, so to speak.

Some lamentable comments on the finals here ; if you can't read a BS or P&L, you really shouldn't be buying shares ; collective vehicles are more suitable.

The salient points are a loss of c.£1.1m after adding back depn, which is non cash.

Ye cash of just £289k, in part bcos of increase in wkg cap due to increased rceivables....but this is often the cash trap for rapidly growing, but cash strapped companies.

" In discussions with possible sources for post-sale credit financing and in negotiations with certain customers for prepayments. " is yet another admission that the co is still way off cash +e ; begging your customers for discounted cash is not a good look, and costs more of that desperately needed cash.

Within the going concern note " The Company is also engaged to explore possible routes for financing its receivables or by way of convertible debt to ease its liquidity position it continues to manage its business within the available resources.".

As for when the co becomes profitable, the best it can say is "Remains engaged to ramp up production and optimise capacity utilisation to achieve consistent operating cash generation at corporate level." Note ; no timeline, and only cash+ve (which is oc vital) but no assurance on full profitability after Depn etc, which is vital in the med term (say 3 years, max).

I have no doubt this co will one way or another achieve all its goals. Whether that makes it an investable proposition at this time is another matter. All the above, read with the whole of the report, shows imo a co scraping around for cash from customers, delaying debtors, and crimping ramp up to conserve cash. Convo holders have been extended to end 2024 (good) but more convo mb raised for wkg cap (not so good).

It appears to me TGR finds itself in the classic growth co cash trap, and needs financing of some sort fairly soon, beyond the limited measures mentioned. It will b very interesting to see at what level the shares return from suspension, if that happens anytime soon. Is it possible they might remain suspended till funds are raised? I don't know all the rules around that.

All imho, so dyor and draw your own conclusions.

Signed. As should we all.

Well, we'll all have to wait and see, as ever.

TBC I am not seeking to malign the CFO personally, just make the broad professional point that missed deadlines, particularly those that concern investors, are poor form. I have known CFOs ousted even when such things were on technicalities largely outside their control, and while times, (and geographies) my be different here, in larger companies insti s/holders would be intolerant of such.

My guess is that this is likely just a technicality, and there are no substantive issues beyond the mooted auditor absence. i make that call based on the assumption that were anything seriously amiss the RNS would have had to say so, and there would be resignations. But that's a best guess, not a certainty as it would be if we were talking Shell or Rio Ttinto.

Take your word 4 that, I've been away from that game a long time now. All I know is that any CFO that misses deadlines will not regard it as a good mark on his/her CV, regardless.