Member Info for Genghis15

Printerman

My only advice is that if you are going to dream about the potential future share price, anchor your expectations a little by translating the figures into market cap (sp x no of shares in issue) and ask yourself if that is a reasonable figure at any given point in the mine development.

James

Sorry i and others have rather hijacked your post re the trading halt.

To return to your Q, I think no one knows, but as jwoz says if they released the DD drills piecemeal mb they'll be anxious to get some early RC results out too. I think most here, me included, are hoping and half expecting to see something b4 Xmas, but nothing is nailed on as far as i can see, so it could be well into NY.

Jwoz

Yes, that's wot I'm seeing on HL, what platform are u using?

Hear, hear, catbert.

i also welcome those pointing out -ves, keeps the BB sane and helps bting focus and balance ; too many gey carried away with emotion and get too attached to the share and/or the story.

But the -ves, just as the +ves, need to be anchored in fact and soberly presented.

At the point your calculayer breaks, so does the market. This asset could easly see the T1 price crater, invalidating all these prpjections.

Im not saying that WILL happen, but it could. My point is that for all these well intentioned projections and comparisons, there are still a lot of unknowns out there.

It is far too early to start counting chickens, when we have not even sat on the eggs yet.

I tend to agree, but the terms of the carry will not be immaterial to the price EEE can achieve for thaty.

Thanks, 4kandles, vesperdene11.

Still a very valuable carry as you say, but if they have to shoulder their share of development costs it's a not too far away from normal. All the way to production would have been ourageous!

i have already emailed for clarification, let's see if I get an answer.

Hod your horses. very early days. If you are serious about assessing the potentia; SP, start with Mcap and ask what is reasonable for an enormous prospect which is at least 5 ears away from revenues, needs a lot more exploration before a development plan, and a lot of upfrong cash after that.

£1 a share = £550m Mcap. Is that reasonable, at this v early stage?

I don't know the answer, but neither, I suspect, do you.

Really?

Tbc. above and beyond the commitment to exploration spend ?

it would be v unusual, and almost negligent, to have given a free carry all the way to production. Perhaps i will email for clarification.

So, Century own the other 30% of pitfield. but after EEE has spent the required$$$s on exploration, do century have to come up with thr 30% share of future costs, or do they have a free carry to completion?

Rupple

I have read a no of AGEOS' posts and v informative they are on geology and mining, but leave no nearer understanding potential present day Mcap.

I have no clear idea how to put a present day value on this.

A very big prospect, which will one day be generating enormous annual revenues and profits. But much to do first even to assess scale, mineralogy, and co product ; assess best refining route for the resource mix, etc. All costing $10ms in today's $s, plus mine/plant constructio of several $100m at least in perhaps 3 years time, first revenues at least 5 years away. And that's being optimistic.

And EEE owns 70%, not 100% as many seem to assume.

I'm not up to modelling the risked NPV on that, so have no idea of the plausible Mcap in today's money. It's clearly a very valuable discovery, but whether EEE target Mcap at this stage should be $50m, $ 500m, or somehwe in between i simply don't have the tools or expertise to guess.

Perhaps you could share how you arrice at that Mcap

Andii, thanks, thar does temper my comment somewhat.

Beevorma

15% for early payment is not a "slight" discount. It's a hefty price to pay for ST credit (mb 3 months max) so equates to near 60% if annualised.

It tells you something of the co's alternatives if it is willing to accept such terms. Tho it is possible, I suppose, that given their inability to prepare accounts on time, that the finance function at TGR is simply incompetent. I incline to the former, tho.

" CAML is currently paying an 11% div"

Mb. That assumes final is the same as interim, which the co divi history tells you is not guaranteed. 2022's high metals prices fell way in 2023, so H1 FCF was halved to $24m, barely enuff to cover the 2022 final divi of 10p.

Mb the divi holds up, but mb it doesn't. Don't take that 11% for granted.

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ALL presenting, along with #EEE

Conrad, to better address the specific wording of your Q, I my understanding is that 30% triggers an obligation to bid for all o/s shares. The acquirer can set whatever price they like, but they're not gonna get control unless that can get at least 50% to accept a price. Once that's the case, I believe there are ways to make it unattractive for the remaining S/holders not to sell.

Conrad, my understanding is the same as not2sure. But generally predators are reluctant to go hostile until they have exhausted the possibilities of persuading the BoD to recommend, which here they clearly aren't minded to do at anywhere near 33p. NH interview makes it clear that they want to see the project thru, unless a bid comes in that it is hard for them to deny under their responsibilies to all shareholders.

Fwiw, I'm v relaxed about a lowball offer, unless Assore raise their price and get other parties on board with combined stake near 50%, I think NH and the Bod will fight our corner.

It clearly won't go thru, but your juxtaposition of Blue Orca & Assore is interesting.

i would not dream of suggesting that the two events could be connected, but one has to wonder.