Member Info for Genghis15

"Same old garbage from fools."

A very balanced article, imv. outlines the risks, highlights the possible rewards., tho focuses only on the emissions question. Ignores the issues raised by the shorter re debt sustainability.Fact is this share is either worth at least double, mb treble, current levels, or nothing at all. Who knows.

"It comes down to who you believe understands the technical issues regarding the minimisation of methane emissions from old wells - Democrat politicians or the bods on the DEC board"

That must ranks as one of the most naive statements I've seen on a chat board to date.

Fintwittrader

Perfectly illustrates my point to rb84....sellers have their own reasons and between news traders move around, returning either on news or in anticipation of it. It's just normal churn ; while LT holders stay put, the price is set by trading activity. Just normal churn, which is of course what in a perverse way creates the very market opportunities traders are looking for...but also provides entry points for other LT investors.

The longer between news, the more tendency to drift.

Rb84

I suggest it is possible you are seeing patterns where there are none, and ascribing motives which fit with your preconceptions, in a form of confirmation bias., to which we re all susceptible.

it is also possible that you are right, of course ! But imho ascribing motives to patterns of anonymous dealing, much of which doesn't even show up on lse, is on fairly thin evidential ice.

Well, that's your interpretation. We will have to agree to disagree.

Really?

SP is followimng the classic early stage movement in my view. ; complaining that prices are being manipulated by dark forces when it should be higher is wishful thinking.

AGEOS ' helpful intervention yesteday gave a boost, but the classic pattern is for drift until news.And for all the justified (imho) positivity around the discovery, likely recoverability, etc, etc, EEE is a long way from a working mine. Cash will be needed for the pilot plant already mooted in H2, unless a partner jumps in. MB, just mb, a big miner comes in early and buys it out, but absent that I would expect the SP to peak on news/fall back as almost every early stage miner oilie tends to do.

That doesn't mean I'm being -ve ; the levels it gyrates around will vary depending on new, and could be higher or lower than today. Just don't look for hidden forces all the tine the stock doesn't behave as we want it to.

Sadly it does seem the SP weakness continues until news, which SB seemed to indicate was "weeks" away re mineralogy, if I understood correctly. So i guess we drift for a while.

Andii, thanks.

I can't claim to have understood everything in there, but very useful.

IIdisagree. I welcome LH comments. It stops this becoming a church of the converted and brings a critical viewpoint, essnetial to help avoid groupthink and confirmation bias. I see he has alraedy commented, this time in a broadly positive way.

I hope so, RB84, but be careful with certainty.

Imv it is very likely so, but things can go wrong in the markets, as many of us know to our cost in early stage miners/oilies who looked every bit as convincing as EEE. So mb keep hold of your granny a little longer.

Notrex

" The 'pressure' is from four ideologically biased minority Democrat member of a sub-committee".

Mb. All politicians are "ideologically biased".

The point is the Co is attracting political interest, never a good thing.

TM1 The posting history point was not aimed at you.

The reason I won't engage is your agenda seems more political than investment focused. I know politics inevitably has an inpact, perhaps more here than at many O&G, cos, but the nub of the problem is the funding model and assumptions over well life/production, retirement costs/timetabling, etc.

Those issues are well documemted in the short attack, and of course have some congruence with the Congressional letter. The co has addressed many of these i its reply, of course, but it bseems the market is unconvinced.

Either this co is the biggest steal on the market, or it is approaching worthless and will implode in the next year or so. I don't think i have the tools to assess that comfortably.

If you think you have, fine, but just spare us the politics.

FFS, a few watches have no significant effect on global Ti demand.

Clued

"Genghis15, TerryM1 very well knows this is an Investmemt Forum and has been here posting for a long while before you appeared !! "

you seem to be under the impression a long posting history gives privileges, and newcomers should tread carefully. i disagree,

As for TM1, it's no good getting irritable with me cos I won't engage in your agenda. Forget the party *olitics, focus on the issues, market, etc. The Congrssional pressure isn't going away, nor are market dioubts over the financial model..

"actually an organic growth story but the market just doesn’t get it because it is shying away from all things London post Brexit" Quite.

But hedgies and PE look thru that, expect more US raids on FTSE cos this year bith from listed cos and PE. PHNX would be a handy morsel, I'm sure.

TerryM1

Precisely why I challenged your post. You are swerving off into a political arena due to your beliefs, irrelevant to the investment case.

DEC has a unique finance modeland unique acquisition & disposal strategy that relies on assumptions about production, wel life, emission levels and well plugging costs that are way outside industry norms. It was inevitable at some point that regulatory attention would be attracted, even in a fairly lax emissions jurisdiction such as USA. Just as it was that the finance model would be questioned.

Leave your politics at the door, this is an investment forum.

" your post below could basically cover every Gas and Oil producer in the world today"

i can look at oilco accounts and see +ve EPS, +ve net current assets, etc, etc. DEc, I'm sorry to say, shows +ves.

Yes, I know it's affected by the accounting treatments of hedges etc, but over time that should even out.

Mb I'm weong and DEC will come thru and prove healthy on all counts, but the busdiness model gives doubters, adthe shorters you imagine behind every post, plenty of scope. Jeez lol all you like, but " every Gas and Oil producer in the world today" does not have these problems.

TM1

It seems to me odd to blame Democrats. the congressional letter appeared to me to raise valid points and nothing wrong with that ; potentially leaky wells are a scourge, and it is up to DEC to demonstrate they are 100% compliant here.

The real issue is that the business model here of substantial and rolling debt, rolling hedging, acquisition & disposal, makes it hard to analyse the accounts without a week to spare and access to supporting docs.

Add to that the very real issue of DEC's hugely lower assunptions on well costs than industry norms, and much higher extimates of future production, and the SP will, I suspect, remain vulnerable for a considerable time now.

DNP

No offence, but given your track record I woul;d have more confidence the SP was about to bounce if you were to predict a precipitous fall ;-))

No, it isn't. It's a relatively normal drift down on an early stage explorer whilst we wait for more news, more progress.

The usual pattern is for weakness following a strong run up, small spikes on news that is good but expected, then more weakness until genuinely game changing news. That game changing news could come tomorrow, later this year, or even next. in the meantime, drift and spike, drift and spike.

Every situation, every share is different, however, so that's not a prediction, merely the usual pattern.