Member Info for Genghis15

2phevs

"There are banks that will invoice finance VAT refunds and take over ownership of the debt by the local government hopefully tgr are looking at this option usually can be done for a maximum of 5-10% in that region or 2.5% in developed world just requires DD on the said VAT return by the bank"

Really? I doubt that.

Current interest rate environment suggests to me that even in Tier1 that discount would be higher now, what it would be in Tier 3 I have no idea, but suspect more than 10%, if indeed a counterparty could be found. If i were approached by TGR my first DD would show a co that was late filing accounts, can't f/cast cashflow.....how can I trust it's accounting procedures to do my DD? Mb I'm wrong, but it seems to me a sensible assumption till shown otherwise.

BBN

to respond to your yesterday "But you've been told today that TGR is producing at 40-45 tons per day. So my question to you is why are you ignoring that? Because that substantially affects cash flows now and going forward."

MB. But i don't want to extrapolate. Others here are doing the same. Already past extrapolations are undermined by the head grade reduction, who knows what else might undermine further ones?

If the co is confident t of the cash flows you posit, then let's hear it....FROM THE CO.

Many here seem happy to continue extrapolating in the face of all that has happened. I wanna see the co say it, in print, what is their cash position, and cash projection, for the next few months? But they won't tell us.

Already the assertions in prev RNSs re supplier advances being sufficient are undermined in the latest RNS by alluding to ie, part of the proposed debt finance for unbudgeted capex being used for "working capital", ie, ST cash.

I can understand why many of the faithful here don't want to focus on the downside, but it's staring us in the face. Until this cashflow is sorted, financed, and out in the open, SP will continue to drift, and with it, the co's bargaining power in securing that finance.

It is quite clear the co has failed spectacularly to accurately forecast cashflow ; a smallish raise 6 to 9 months ago at 30p + would have saved much of the subsequent SP damage.

It's a really unforgiving mkt atm, debt finance will be costly, and I suspect may come with an unhealthy dose of convos, warrants, or optiions.

BBN

"The market immediately (again) thinks cash shortfall but that is not the message in the update and a far as I can see non of the positives about where TGR has reached and has before it are in this MC."

OK. But the cash problem has been highlighted by the co, has caused the SP drop below 20p already, and what sensible s/holder would not want to focus on that? Yet, no mention. No mention at all of the most critical short term issue, which has sent the co begging to its customers, no assurance that cashflow projections are on track, no mention of current cash. Zilch.

i can't fathom how any CEO thinks it wise to issue an ops & trading RNS only 2 months after a suspension for late accounts & a cash crisis, without some reassurance on current cash.

Even less can i fathom why any investor would be unbothered by that, and prefer to focus on project delivery.

Without cash, theproject falls into other hands, that's how capitalism & markets work.

Any comments welcome but please post them on my first post, I've asked for deletion of this duplicate.

Apologies for duplicate post, have asked for it to be deleted. Once is enough!

By some (actually, nearly all0 of the comments on the RNS.

To me, it reads as an unmitigated disaster for investors. Head grade reduction means raising debt to finance unbudgeted extra capex. That will come at a hefty price, either in interest or dilutive convos or both.

No mention at all of current cash, which is (or should be) the main focus of concern for investors at the moment after TGR went begging to its trade buyers so recently.

I'm only surprised the SP drop wasn't bigger given the market backdrop atm which punishes bad news.

Commiserations to holders; i kept watching to see if the co could get over its woes and turn the corner, but nowi feel I've really dodged a bullet here.

Will it ever correct?

Srprised more prdators aren't raiding the London market, there really are some companies on absurdly low valuations.

Let's face it, the divi is negligible, even with the Kentro payouts.

It is far from the only co at a ridiculous discount to NAV, but the current 30%+ is extreme for a co with such a track record. The same is true over at OCI.

I saw the tweet and it was pretty clear, words to the effect he would arrive as an explorer, and leave as a miner.

I don't know any other way to interpret t other than he's flown out in anticipation of the ML being granted. Thought at the time this must be market sensitive. Careless, really, I would expect the co to clarify.......cats cannot be put back in bags.

Not wanting to pick a fight here, but tho much of what you say mb true, the thing being punished most in current markets is not lack of trust (bad tho that is) but lack of cash. Any hint that a co is strapped 4 cash sees big moves down, natural in a mkt where bond yields are rising, QE being reversed, and hernce capital is both more expensive and more scarce.

They really need to muddle thru now, or any cash will come at a steep price.

We of course have the benefit ofhindsight, but the Bod should have had cash flow forecasts sufficient to tell them that a raise would e prudent, at least 6 months or more ago, imho.

That mamagent failed tp provide, and/or dorectors didn't ask for, such forecasts, and /or they were inaccurate, or that the Bod were happy to sail so close to the wind.....or whatever factors you can think of.....either way, it does not reflect well on the corp governance here.

Nearly 2 months since 10 Aug RNS re prepayments and cash management. Sometime this Q we will find out if the co has managed to get over its cahflow hump without a raise. Until then, i suspect every market down day sees the sp ratchet lower. Only clarity on cash, ruling out a forced raise on punitive terms, can change the mood music here.

Everything else is noise.

The old saw, "Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity but cash is reality" .

V disapointing divi news today, but a well overdone drop given the NAV. Can't stay here for long, imv.

Q7 update was early Aug. Q2 is not going to happen b4 Nov, and then expect more of the usual ; lots of figures about production, waffle about building mkt share, etc.... but short on hard facts about cash. Go on, Shishir, prove me wrong.

TP raised from 40 to 60p here. https://x.com/Robin25461631/status/1703676552536322389?s=20

Yes, it's a paid for broker note, but still....

Kicking myself foe not douibling my stake this morning when it was briefly sub 28p. Don't expect to see that opportunity again at $95 Brent.

Binbin

Many tx 4 posting. Much as I hate to be the doomster again, your 12. causes me concern

"12. The battery minerals semi annuals were released a few days ago. They note that they need to raise cash and an option is to liquidate their TGR shares. However I can see no reference to actually doing it. They have 5m shares and 6m which vest in Dec 23

Combined with this from Andii's reply

"Further, whilst there is inherent uncertainty in the capital markets, the Group has adequate liquid

assets in the form of Tirupati Graphite shares should they not pursue capital raising.".

So, more potential share sales? Oh dear, are we in falling knife territory?

At some point this share will be a bargain, but catching that knife is a risky business.....needs some +ve news on cash, and soon.

I hate to coninue my negativity, but the OP is spot on. Building trust in corp gov & tandards is not done by going off piste like this.

HarChris

Your scenario is ceetainly possible, and is what the co is indicating. Trouble is the co has ever indicated anything else, preferring to focus on feeding us production figures rather than cash projections ; so it has a credibility problem with all but the most committed investors. That will change once it demonstrares cash problems are behind it.

I would substitute "should" or mb "would" for "will turn things around" in your post, but hope your faith is rewarded.

Agree with trek, I sold today. If drops below 190 or so I might consider re entry tho.