Member Info for Genghis15

aduk
That may be technically true but that's not how it has been presented to us by either HUR or other parties, who according to commentators and analysts, at least, are unconvinced because it is a "new" play type for NS/WoS.

Let me just say that my brief reply perhaps undersrtates things for Lundin ; they've proved a reservoir, and that it can flow from basement, just like Lancaster. And in fact, mb a bit better, bcos I don't think Lancaster was flowed for 5 days. tho I stand to be corrected.

What I meant was that it does not prove NS basement as commercial long term flows or address all the doubts that have been expressed here over the last 4 years, as that can only be proven by a much longer period of sustained production. I , for one, think those doubts are way overstated, but this does not affect that judgement one way or the other.

It does show, tho, that there are other basement prospects in the NS, and it would be interesting to know if HUR or anyone else have sharpened their pencils looking at other prospects. If not yet, they certainly will be once our EPS is up and running.

Doesn't prove much.

HUR have flared Lancaster, without proving LT flow.

This is either a magnificent piece of trolling, or someone completely out of their depth.

I have no idea which.

No effect at all imv.

the markets have had doubts about it for some time, for too many reasons to list here.

It certainly looks like something happening ; the little dance with the tug and repositioning does not on the face of it appear to be an AIS malfunction but does appear to represent real movement.
She now appears not to be mating with the tanker but to be moored astern of it, with the tug alongside.

What this shows the start of trials or not is still unclear, but seems likely.

Wait and see.

Actually, I'm still a bit doubtful. Whilst she appears to have turned 180deg and swapped positions with the tug, she also appears to underneath an oil tanker, so I may have failed my shipwatchers' exam.

yup, Definitely on the move.

does look to be moving......I know Wessex has warned over AIS interference but it look real given ug position, at least to me, tho I have as much experience of boat movements as I do of interplanetary travel......

I agree AIM shares over/undershoot.

I do not think that as any relevance to NPVs or my observations thereon. They are an accounting construct and at early stage stuff like this pretty tenuous value indicators.

"Am I to take it you do not see a dip in SP at first oil?"

I confess to a certain blind spot there ; not considering profit taking strategies.

Mb, cos there are of course always people waiting to take profits at every milestone.

"Sell on news", etc. Could be, or they could be overwhelmed by positive sentiment. I tend to think the basics will drive value, but that mb naïve of me.

Ricfle
Just my opinion which no one else need believe.1

but my thinking is;
1. Project will be complete, removing engineering risk
2. reservoir will be performing, eliminating most remaining concerns about reservoir risk.
3. (2) will mostly derisk the other reservoirs also even b4 we drill them.

4. by FOIL I expect a contract for further drilling to be confirmed.

All those taken together, imho, will trigger broker notes with higher targets, press interest, and a higher awareness of HUR, including insti buying. Main listing news might also help.

And that's excluding both the possible much larger upside from any FO/TO if that were to happen, which may not come until later.

As I said, jimho, everyone must make their own judgement.

jusmasel
I posted b4 "My experience was that when told by a lawyer that if they make a decision which they have been told is invalid and will cost taxpayers money, they go ahead anyway.
Only if the lawyer is of sure opinion that such a decision would be reckless, and that the auditor might rule them INDIVIDUALLY liable for council costs, do they back off."

Such is democracy.

PDMS
Spot on.

He was at a meeting I went to re Coro at the Ritz and a bigger ******* you could not have met. Completely ****ed, out of his depth and socially inadequate.
Mind you, that might apply to a few fund managers too...

I agree with aduk re NPVs. Never seen them reflected in a co sp, discount that figure by 50% to755 and you'll be close, imo, barring a takeover. Mind you, RBD's strategy is to monetise, so they might eventually achieve close to that ; but it won't go straight to the SP on a strike.

And I think you are!

I believe (as I have said b4) that the geos don't doubt the data anything like as much as many seem to think ; that the majors' holding off here is mostly a function of bean counter and executive caution over expanding the capex budgets cut during the downturn ; and that as long as POO (and resultant cashflows) stays strong those doubts are evaporating to the extent that someone jumping the gun is an increasing possibility. Not a given, but if we really have to wait for 6m production (again with the PoO caveat) then I will eat my considerable collection of hats.

I may be wrong, in which case having to eat humble pie on here will be the least of my worries!

All I will say is that your opinion on SP predictions is cautious and reasonable.

I just happen to think that in this case it is wrong. Time will prove one of us right!

Jim Rogers is an interesting guy but I don't think his predictions for Poo are worth much more than mine, and even I don't trust those.

LW
I think so, as most others here seem to do. The overlapping time periods in the project timescales certainly point to 2018 being a possibility, at the very least, a likelihood perhaps. I would say almost a certainty, with a caveat re WoS weather and the small chance of accident or commissioning problems.
In fact, only Neil Platt's cautionary stance at the AGM re commissioning work causes me to say Nov/Dec. I had previously been guessing October, tho again with a caveat re WoS weather.
Malcy thinks so too, told us as much at the AGM in conversation.

BZ
Thanks. Interesting to hear that - I don't see L2 and its good to hear what's happening there. If and when we get insti buying, whether or not on the back of listing news, volume should be rather different; and of course it remains the silly season for another week or so.
Not a believer in the charts, but does no harm to hear views on that, so keep posting.
Cheers