Member Info for Genghis15

Yep, they would say that.

Bear in mind that the pensions are mostly for the workers, not councillors, tho. Councillor salaries are on the whole pitifully small and pensions even less so.

Anyway this is n irrelevance.

EOG's destiny is West of Ireland, or nowhere.

"I am frankly annoyed that HUR are giving an insider communication to major shareholders. That should at the very least be a listen-in even for PIs with a published transcript. That irks me and I hope they rethink quickly. The sorts of questions that the IIs ask, how they are phrased, and how they are answered, are very important for us PIs in assessing our own positions - and we are qualitatively equal, if not quantitatively so.

I have no qualms at all about the BoD closing this deal. That is what they are there for."

I really hope HUR are listening to this. As PIs we must all trust the BoD to make major decisions on our behalf. It is unrealistic to expect, as IJWT poses, for every major decision to be put to a S/h vote. I trust this Bod with those decisions and am happy with today's RNS.

The flip side of that is to expect post decision engagement and explanation, and I strongly resent being treated as a second class shareholder behind the instis.

Agree with every word you say re the investor call.

"Indeed, without Richard Bernstien, who introduced Kerogen, there would most probably be no Hurricane Energy"

Justify, please.

At first sight that is the most misleading, if not outright Trumpian statement I have ever seen on this bb.

"win- win" "Fantastic deal"

Not exactly. It's £1BN + Mcap, so its not going to move and spike like the average AIM stock with a Mcap sub £20m.

Malcy
"£20 notes for a fiver" and " close to free money" etc.

Now Malcy doesn't move markets , at least not on £1BN MCAPs, but a few analysts thinking the same could well do.

No chance matey.

Lotsa press comment later, I would think, plus we can but hope they might give an interview to Malcy or pro active, tho I'm not holding my breath on that one.
Sailaway not far off, and imho this deal has put blood in the water, so to speak.

What that will spark is anyone's guess, but anything is possible now from insti buying to competitive FO interest on Lancaster, all the way to a full bidding war.

This is a not a straightforward deal for the average PI to understand so it has not sent the SP rocketing like, say, a successful drill might. And day to day movements are usually only PI led, with any rise sold into , usually by CA.
But as it sinks in to the instis who have had it explained to them today, and as the analyst community does its work, HUR should find solid SP support.

All imho, of course, and subject to the usual PoO caveat.

"We believe today’s deal materially accelerates the de-risking of Hurricane’s Rona Ridge asset base both in terms of GWA resource but also the ability to focus Lancaster EPS cash-flows on fast-track appraisal of the GLA resource base."

Comment from Simon Thompson today
"It looks a smart deal to me and to analysts at WH Ireland too. They are considering making material upgrades to their previous 61.8p target price"

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2018/09/03/hurricane-energy-farm-in-boosts-crystal-amber/?utm_campaign=Copy+of+ICDailyEmail_new2016&utm_source=emailCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=

II = institutional.

"The market speaks, the deal is worth 5p"

Well, that is unarguable. However, that's just today and almost certainly driven just by PI trading , and quite likely with CA selling into the rise.

Hopefully the major investors (and others) will like what they see, and we could easily see II interest boosted by this in the coming weeks. I imagine at some point Edison and others will adjust their valuations accordingly too.
If Linwick has a RENAV of 7.7p (not the 7.1p I quoted earlier, sorry) then a revised RENAV post his FO will be significantly higher, I would think, and add rather more than 5p to the target price.

Judge it in 6 months time.

Oh, and who cares if Spirit are a "nobody"? (not that they are).

The point is they are financially and technically capable, and that's all that matters.

Fred
Why do you persist saying 25% of the co has been sold? Have a look at the Edison valuation

https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/hurricane-energy767094/preview/

which values the co at 81p, including 34.7p net of debt for Lancaster EPS volumes only. The values included fot Linwick are 7.1p for Lincoln and precisely nothing for Warwick. On that basis we have "given away" 50% of 7.1p a share and got $387M free carry for it, whilst retaining 50% of the upside which the carry will prove up.

Got it?

IJWT
"looks like Robert has gone ahead and done the deal" "using his train set how it best suits him"

Oh, come off it.
RT can no more ram thru a deal like this off his own bat than any other CEO of a listed co.
This has to have been signed off by the entire BoD, including Kerogen and the NEDS.

Kerogen in particular must see this as good value, they are LT investors with a sound investment model who would not allow major corporate transactions that did not align with their interests, which is creating maximum value.

As to "Big chunk of this is to prove up the GWA within the timeframe of the current VCP", well, mb, but if so that's the point of the VCP, to focus mgt on getting things moved on as fast as possible, imho.

Tacuma
Pension funds are not run by elected members, but by professionals at arms length. I would be very surprised if more than one or 2 council members had the first clue about where the pension funds invest.

Don't get adding all the NPVs together, bear in mind that altho they are high CoS, they won't all come in. Drilling will never go 100% success.

Also be cautious with NPVs, they are rarely if ever fully reflected in co SP.

So talk of 20p is fanciful, but there is certainly a good chance of a 5 bagger here, imho.

West Of Shetland Pipeline

Fred
"Approx 25% of the entire company sold"

Nonsense.
Lincoln has been drilled but not tested. Warwick not even drilled. They may appear to be 25% of resource on a quick glance but to represent that as 25% of the co by value is nonsense.

Most of the current value in the co is in Lancaster and the EPS, everything else is future upside.
What this deal has done is bring that future upside much closer, and much more real.

Those criticising should bear in mind this is a FO of one untested field and one undrilled one, with a free carry on all the proving up.
What's more, it seems to me to make another FO at Lancaster more likely too. And a FO there should be on MUCH better terms, imho, given that Lancaster has been extensively drilled and modelled, and is not far from FOIL

The main disappointment for me today is that the company sees fit to do a conference call to major shareholders, while us PIs have to make do with a pdf.
A listen in facility for PIs, or even better a video presentation, is the least we deserve imo.

Another interesting question is whether this deal puts HUR "in play" by demonstrating that farminee interest is ready to commit, and that this resource is slipping away if a major wants a part of it.

It should focus minds in a few boardrooms, I would think.

IJWT
The significant but understated element here may well be the accelerated move to a gas export solution by tie in to the WOSP pipeline.

Debottlenecks the entire GWA and GLA incl Whirlwind and might actually add a lot of value.

Like you I am still digesting things, tho.