Member Info for Genghis15

Ricfle

Your speculations re drilling on GLA make a lot of sense, it does look as tho the financial capability is there.

But I wonder, given that HUR is still a pretty small outfit, if there is the geological/operational expertise to plan, conduct, and analyse a four well program in a single calendar year? I suspect Spirit will still want HUR to lead on this.
Just speculation on my part, but it might explain why the operational plan shows no new GLA wells b4 2020.

Not wholly valid ; Suez transit will be slower, and on the way out it made a stop at Malta.

Best guidance is RT's 6 weeks to Shetlands incl a stop in Rotterdam.

MUAS
Thanks for my new title....I didn't think your post needed a reply really, but aduk and biffa have covered it anyway, without the need for me to repost Dr T's email from Feb 2016.

Let's move on.....i will look for that program on catch up tho.

Well, they're certainly putting it thru its paces for a boat that will spend its entire working life tethered to the seabed!

Makes me wonder how long it will take in field to commission the business end of things before hookup, maybe longer than some expect. Certainly i recall at AGM that Neil Platt was cautionary on that, don't think he gave a timeframe but i know I came away with the impression that it could be as long as a month.
Anyone else remember?

"Lastly, it was Richard Bernstein who introduced Hurricane to Kerogen and who invested before the IPO."

Nigwit, can you point me to your source info for that?

Not something I have seen before anywhere.

Imho tho johnpwh has a point, the main factor here seems to be the IPCC report impacting early stage oilies with worries that they won't have time to get all the oil out of the ground. It's a valid fear, but should I think blow over, especially as we get to FOIL,.

Again as JPH points out, the delay puts us much further in the hands of the weather gods than I was anticipating, so FOIL by Xmas is now a hope rather than an expectation.

Glad I didn't mortgage the house at 60p (seriously, or are you speaking figuratively?) but most of us LT here know that underwater feeling, even if most of us are in the black now.
All will be well.

And best wishes to HTL, hope it goes well for you.

C'mon, just filter him, I have.

Even your considered, even handed replies are just troll food.

Stop putting out the trough and the pigs will stop coming.

Seems to be a sector wide reaction to the climate report.

Should blow over as we get more positive news, I would think.

With the AM on trials now, sailaway cannot be more than a few days away.

FOIl by Xmas ? I'm still hoping, but the weather gods will need to be kind.

Yes, cmon people, don't feed the trolls, it's almost BB rule 1.

Luckcounts
I'm not sure it works like that.....but if it did, the calculation should be $52- opex approx.$22 (perQ3presentation) = $30 net.
$85- opex $23 = $62 net. On that basis SP should be 32p x62/30 = 66p

However given we are 15 months closer to FOIL and have had a significant FO as well, the SP look low on that method.

But the SP is what it is ; we know we have a seller into any significant rise, which doesn't help.

Get that boat WoS and we'll be well above 60p for sure tho, if PoO stays strong.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-oil-capex-analysis/after-lean-years-big-oil-is-under-pressure-to-spend-idUKKCN1MD09J

Afaik he worked for Shell, Enterprise and some petrophysics consulting company, never BP.

I am not a mariner, but I know that you aren't on sea trials while you're moored to a dock. Simple English. Pre sea trial checks, perhaps, but till it moves, it ain't on sea trials, end of.

Imo both company guidance and tittle tattle here gave us all good reason to think the boat would be on its way by end August, no later, right up until the Spirit news landed.

So now its looking like slightly missing co guidance, and sailaway will, I guess, come sometime early October with an end November arrival in fields, so FOIL in 2018 looking increasingly uncertain.

For sure this disappoints me, and I'm sure many others ; the earlier the EPS starts the sooner the doubters in Big oil will be dispelled and the sooner our value will rise substantially. But it seems to me pretty obvious that some extra work is going in following the Spirit deal to facilitate Wrwick/Lincoln testing and minimise future downtime in the scheduled further upgrade.
Why HUR have not stated this clearly I do not know ; it is hard to see why they want to keep shareholders in the dark.

My best guess is that they are keeping their cards as close to their chest as possible, to give as little info as possible to any predator looking for a cheap TO. Or, mb, they have something else in the works that is not public, which an announcement re the AM delay might give a clue to.

So, whilst a tad disappointed the AM is still in Dubai, I am happy to trust the Bod on this one ; they want FOIL as much as I do, so if they judge the delay worthwhile, I guess it must be. As ever, only time will tell.

Jk

Better now...….))

FFS start a new thread. This is so far from the OP its on another planet, and a thread with 60+ posts is a pain in the arse anyway.

BBoton
Well, true, and not only journos, many fund types are often less informed than many here, tho they may understand investment principles better.

An interesting article here from earlier in the year seems to back up a point I have been making for some time, that it is not reservoir engineers who are cautious about FB, but bean counters and "decision makers" .

"it is fair to say that technical teams in other oil companies have shown support and interest in the Lancaster EPS approach and the associated resource base there is a general lack of knowledge of the basement itself amongst key decision-makers."

https://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/print/volume-78/issue-8/offshore-europe/lancaster-eps-to-address-basement-flow-uncertainties-west-of-shetland.html

Richard Bernstein
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@CrystalAmberRB1
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-24/major-traders-see-return-of-100-oil-due-to-u-s-iran-sanctions … #hur

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voxmarkets.co.uk

Me too.

Bit it seems to have generated a little interest.

We are years away from 2P on whole fields tho,

2P requires finance, FDP and regulatory approvals, as I understand it.

That's gotta be 2 years away at least, I would think.