Member Info for Genghis15

The marine people here have covered that b4, they will drop it in shallow water for retrieval. And it is principally there for reasons of drag, rather than protection, and is unnecessary for the short trip to WoS.

The Spirit deal requires "debottlenecking" to increase capacity from 30k to 40k bpd.

the co has not stated that any of this work is being done now ; but it would make sense to do what they can now if it saved a trip off station later on.

Biffa
I understand your point ; there is no sensible reason to give great credence to his report.

It just seems to me it might fit, given my belief (not shared by all) that the "extra" time in Dubai was occasioned by the Spirit deal. If that's right, then a bit more work/snagging at this end might fit the pattern ; there could reasond unknown to us why further time in Dubai didn't suit ; crew contracts, etc, etc. We'll see, I may be off beam and it is interesting to ee other views.

Ok, so the majority of FOIL predictions are now unachievable (incl mine) - tho to be fair to HUR we are still well within company guidance so that's our fault for guessing wrong.
So where are we now?

Fwiw I'm inclined to take donscot at face value and assume 3 weeks in Rotterdam might be correct ; whether that's Spirit related "debottlenecking" or engineering tweaks we'll never know.

So ETA Rotterdam now is what, 21/22 Nov or so? Add 3 weeks is mid December. Even given benign weather, hookup and commissioning cannot give FOIl b4 New year now, I guess.

So my latest guess for FOIL is early to mid January, still at the early end of co guidance.

Sookma

Post something positive or at least, constructive.

Nobody like a smartarse.

That may be v interesting, I shall do my best to be there.

a contrarian point of view, but lack of current revenues is not everything. Your critique compares HUR to other ventures that have "turned sour2 due to technical problems and cash raises.

technical issues? Well, mb, but ; after all there mb a little extra work to do in Rotterdam, and weather may delay hookup. And I suppose we can't completely rule out the odd commissioning hitch.

But we have no need of cash: even if FOIL is next March, it's within time and budget. And the wells will flow, and in 6 months (max, imho) we could be producing 30k bpd, which even @ $60 oil would give us (net of c. $20 opex) around $400m pa. I reckon that alone justifies a £1bn valuation ; but on top of that we are fully carried on appraisals on Warwick and Lincoln which will prove up the asset base even further, in preparation for future expansion.

Far from being still too expensive, today's price represents a compelling opportunity, imv.

In response to Iran sanctions, and Trump's tweeting ahead of the midterms, OPEC+ all decided they had an excuse to pump at max. So there is now a wall of oil heading to market, and some waivers have been granted to some Irnian customers, so there's oversupply.
Ther are threats to demand growth but not showing thru yet.

It all comes back to the usual place ; Riyadh. If Saudi can corral OPEC+ into going back to quota, things will settle once the midterms are out of the way.

Aduk The 3 days was posted from memory, it might have been "a few days" or something like that, can't remember exactly where I saw it but we have some bloodhounds on here who I'm sure can find references to it if they're bothered.

But it certainly was NOT 3 weeks.

A Mosquito is being rebuilt, as is a Typhoon.

I challenged donscot on this last time he posted it.
Let's assume for now that he knows something we don't.

The only reason for 3 weeks in Rotterdam would be a bit of extra "debottlenecking" similar to what (imho) was behind the delayed railway from Dubai.
Not an implausible scenario, perhaps.

We will find out soon enuff, but I do sometimes wonder why the co cannot be more open about it if indeed that is what happens.
For now, co guidance remains c. 3 days to fit flare stack and remove turret plate : if that is going to change I would 3xpect us to be told , but who knows.

Death and taxes, facts of life, live with it.

This is not the place for rants about tax. Write to your MP.

Nonsense aduk. Fuel duty has been unchanged for 8 years, so has had no effect on changes in fuel price.

Hi extruder. Yes, would be interesting to hear that talk, tho I'm sure nothing can be said that is not I the public domain.

RT's been busy too

http://www.force.org/Global/Seminars/2018/20181031_UnderexploredPlaysIII/Programme%20UxP%20III.pdf

Patience!
Sooner or later we'll get some instis buying back in, and up she'll go.
Substantially, I wouldn't b surprised, as we pass and approach some critical milestones towards year end.

Or destination. Could stop en route, we don't know.

I hope so too, but general market jitters rule atm and it will take more than a few klicks of boat movement to move the SP, imho.

But give it 4 weeks or so to Wos, 4 weeks to commission, and we could get FOIL by Xmas and cashflow by Q1.

THAT will move the SP, for sure, and by Easter I reckon someone will be knocking down the doors at Eashing.

In the sense that for BP, read "all oil producers" boosted by PoO.

So of course cash for acquisitions/investment will be easier to come by.

I don't personally think BP are any more or less likely than any of the other biggies to come knocking, the commercial drivers are the same for most, if they have interest in the North Sea/WoS.

And remember opex is the only figure that really maters, as the capex has in effect been dealt with ; it will appear as depreciation in the accounts but has no effect on cashflow, bar the interest on the CBs until they convert.