Member Info for Genghis15

https://www.ft.com/content/e633ea7a-f253-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

Extrapolating those nos on our fields gives some v big valuations indeed, up to $34B across the quint, after allowing for Spirit's 50% of LinWick.
The figs are misleading, tho ; we don't know how far advanced the infrastructure was in the comparables., and there is a LOT of infrastructure required to monetise our assets.
I am not familiar with Faroe's assets, but my guess is that much pf their 2C is closer to existing infrastructure than our own. So taking the offer of 2p/$6.8 and 2C/$3.2 would give us a valuation, I reckon, of c. $12bn.
the question then is how much does that need discounting to allow for development costs and timings?
Unknowable, really, but taking a 50% discount would get us close to JK's figure of £2.00 or so.
This is just finger in the air stuff, really, but my guess is that £2.00 is the absolute floor once Lancaster has flowed for 3 months or so.

Nobody knows what's happening in 2 weeks time. Most of these so called forecasts, if not all, only use seasonal averages once you get past 7 days.

Forget it, no one knows.,

Well, it has set me wondering. As you say, we'll see.

"The Aoka Mizu FPSO has arrived offshore Holland. Final testing and certification of the dynamic positioning system will take place prior to entering Rotterdam, where a final scope of work will be carried out ahead of travelling to the Lancaster field"

Hmm. So, how long for the dynamic testing, I wonder. And "final scope of work" feels deliberately vague.
At least a couple weeks, mb 3, b4 she sets sail for Lancaster, methinks.

https://twitter.com/hurricomms/status/1065991170160058368

BZ "they might want an easy Xmas"

Not HUR style. I recall Dr T saying they'd hook up on Xmas day if that's how the cards fell.

Can't see why anyone would doubt your musings, Biffa, it's perfectly possible. Fingefrs crossed, but if we see FOIL b4 New Year now, I'll be delighted.

Agree, WM.

I do not subscribe to some of the wilder valuations mooted on here, but cannot see £1.50 being enough once w have flowed for a while.

https://www.spirit-energy.com/news/2018/west-of-shetland-the-uks-final-frontier#main

Not sure if this has been posted b4, new to me anyway....

Generally agree with Ricfle ; the main significant impact on HUR is in relation to exchange rate movements ; given all economic assessments are negative, likely be a positive for HUR as we are paid in $$$s.
Merrill Lynch predicted the other day that No deal meant $1.10 or less, Remain, $1.50, other scenarios along that scale depending on impact.

There may be some contractual/hiring issues but I cannot see that they would be significant. However, I suspect it may mean extra paperwork for Alastair Stobie.

For me, Brexit is not a worry to the investment case here, only PoO.

I'm not discussing Brexit.
I'm answering a Q on a common misperception of EU law.

Aduk.
Belgium, Holland, Austria and a host of others.
We chose not to: largely bcos we don't have a proper system of I'd checks.
It could have been done.

"Drop telling people what they can write about"

Sure.
Write what u like.

But this is an investment discussion bb, not a Brexit debating chamber.

There are many appropriate fora for discussing Brexit, and 8m happy to do so.

But I come here to discuss HUR, and if other issues start dominating I for one will be off. I suspect I am not alone.

Better still, don't bring it up.
This is not a political discussion board, and we will inevitably disagree over this issue as none other.
Drop it.

yes, I read plenty but agree it's unknowable. But it does seem to be in oversupply atm; I suspect the price will depend on response from OPEC, meaning Riyadh, and from Moscow.
Given the recent memory of what happened when they let rip in 2014, you would think they would move to cut supply, which I expect them to do ; pre-meeting meeting at the weekend will likely make noises about that.

But who knows, they could shoot themselves in the foot all over again and carry on pumping.

Seen that b4, but it's still worth reading. Also contradicts the assertion I saw a while back (I think by Nigwit?) that CA introduced Kerogen to Dr t.

Sorry replied here but I was referencing Biffa's link.

Seen that b4, but it's still worth reading. Also contradicts the assertion I saw a while back (I think by Nigwit?) that CA introduced Kerogen to Dr t.

WW/DC
Nothing new from co, I thought my posts made that clear ; I am speculating based on the extended time in Dubai and an unsubstantiated rumour of additional time in Rotterdam. My suspicion is that work done now will ENABLE the remainder to be done on station, avoiding a lengthy trip to a shipyard and extended downtime in future.
I may be wrong. Wait and see.