Member Info for Genghis15

I should add that that is not just connecting things up and making them work ; I believe there will be further certification issues at steps in the process, which adds to the time taken.
And at Xmas/ Ny some regulatory agencies may not be available owhen required.

Fwiw those at the 2018 AGM may recall Neil Platt being cautious about commissioning, in the face of some investors assuming it would be a few days.

I don't recall him specifying a period but I know I came away thinking that a month or so sounded about right.

There isn't a lot more bullishness here. Ok, we're still waiting on an official OPEC+ statement, which is key ; but the noises have been positive and it seems likely Poo will be supported.
Given that, I'm more enthused now than at any time since PoO collapsed at the end of 2014. The FPSO is back in EU waters, and will sail soon ; weather permitting hookup over Xmas/NY is possible, mb likely.
Allowing for commissioning/certification etc, FOIL by end January is a reasonable expectation, and that will be followed by the Spirit drilling program soon after.

After 4 years of ups and downs, of almost existential challenge from the PoO, after huge dilution, buyers' strike, and general industry scepticism, we are close to vindication of RT's beliefs, of HUR's raison d'etre, and of investor returns.

Or so it seems to me. I know it is important to keep expectations in check, but i am still surprised the BB is not more excited at this juncture.
C'mon, someone pour the cold water on me!

you have a lot of faith in weather forecasts 2 weeks hence. I have none at all.

SIPP
Appreciate what you say, but look at it from a potential buyer's perspective.
If you are happy basement works - and by now some, at least, must be - waiting till FOIL, and mb Spirit's drilling, means HUR has become even more valuable.

It is now more in HUR's interest to carry on alone than it is in the interests of a potential buyer/farminee.

If a buyer came in now, what would shareholders sell out for? £1.00, £2.00 ? We cannot be sure that Kerogen would not sell at those levels.

Imho a bidder would have to pay much more after all our 2019 milestones, which is why HUR is now a tempting target.

All of this relies, of course, on our OPEC+ friends keeping PoO around current levels.

Bear in mind the Spirit deal broke the "buyers strike" and enabled the LinWar drilling programme. there will have been much pressure from OGA to get on with that ; and I do not support FB's opinion that investors would have happily "ponied up" a rights issue instead Imho that would have sent the share to new lows, and benefitted no one.

As dspp says, the HUR Bod will have considered all this ; while all here are entitled to opinions, none of can know just what options and pressures the Bod had in front of it, so in the end you have to trust their judgement.

yep, he's interesting, I follow him on Twitter.

SP has been hammered by the decline in PoO and market jitters, and quite likely a bit of shorting thrown in.

But to be at this level with the FPSO mb a couple weeks away from being on station is crazy. remember Ithaca got taken out just as theirs sailed.

Malcy has spoken b4 about the nearer the time to FOIL the more temptation for one of the big companies to jump the gun ; there must be some itchy trigger fingers out there by now. But I doubt HUR will sell b4 FOIOL now ; why not wait (if possible!) for production, and the Spirit drills, to add more value.

There is of course no knowing, and most likely if any approaches are made at this stage they will be on the QT. But it would not surprise me if one day over the next few weeks a statement was to come out along the lines of "we confirm an approach has been made but the Bod consider it seriously undervalues the company".

Now is the time to hold tight, and hope OPEC+ keeps the Poo stable.

I'm not going to add to a thread that already has 113 posts, but have to say agree totally your post of 9.45.

Altho I would say mid 2019 at the very latest not end of.

6m production absolute max. Imho

Wise words biffa + cebo.

V interesting 6 months ahead, huge potential upside finally heaving into view.

Ww
I'm not in favour of hype, either. I see danger here, but imho that is around Poo, and thence from climate change, geopolitics, etc.

FB ? Engineering? Pish. HUR will get it right.

"My point is that one way or another almost all the information available for “research” has been paid for or sanctioned in some way by HUR.2

What about the ringing endorsement at the CA AGM/results day or whatever it was, delivered by CA's own tame geo consultants?

Would that be independent enough?

Thanks, Seems to validate our poster a couple weeks back saying 3 weeks in Rotterdam.

On site 21 Dec will make for an interesting Xmas period, I imagine a few sore heads will be up early looking for a hookup RNS!

Mb also "Easternisation" by the FT's Gideon Rachman. Confess I haven't read yet, but it's on my coffee table. Will be read over Xmas.

csapinos

I think you are mistaken, Read carefully the VCP conditions set out on p54 of the AR, and it appears to me that absent a TO or major change of control, and/or a major infrastructure development beyond the EPS, the shares have a 5 year vesting timeframe from Nov 2016. 3rd para after the heading "value Creation Plan"

Thanks for posting. I wanted to attend but couldn't ; still waiting to buy here so latest fall ok 4 me (sorry!).

If world economy holds up this will go one day, I think, but no saying how soon.

Why is this relevant at this stage? NEDs will be appointed in good time for a main listing. Does anyone really think having more NEDs would change in any way how HUR does business?

Let's hear no more about train sets ; if it applies to anyone, imho, it is to the man who originally made the comment. We have a new independent chairman, well qualified NEDs (tho they are a little long serving now) plus a major S/H in Kerogen sitting on the board. I can see no evidence in the AR that there are any issues about governance.

Sometime in 2019, post FOIL, pre a main listing, is the time to beef up the BOD, I would say.

The speculation started by casapinos is, imho, well off the mark. The AR is not entirely clear on what constitutes a relevant milestone but "production maturity" sounds like a long way after FOIL to me. but more significantly, does any body here really believe the Bod wants to trigger the VCP at 55p ? Come on!

The VCP is designed to reward executive directors, esp founder Robert Trice, for delivering the huge potential upside we're all always talking about. They're not gonna b worried about hitting 55p, they're after £2.50 minimum, at which point the rewards for all significant shareholders are quite likely life changing, and I for one will not begrudge big payouts to the people who made it happen.

So come on, directors are not pumping this to get to 55p. The prize is just far bigger than that.

NW
You mean complimentary. He cannot be otherwise, can he, when speaking publicly about a major shareholder?
I wouldn't read anything into that ; who knows what the Bod privately think of him, But the fact he has not been offered a seat may (or may not) indicate something.

"He’s very highly respected and in the news often." Yes, he would like to believe that., and would like us all to believe it too, but I do not believe it to be true. It is not hard to cultivate a couple of tame journos and feed them easy copy, as he does to both the Times and Torygraph. Don't mistake that for respect ; David Lenigas gets published, too.

The best, most respected, fund managers keep a low profile and generally work with companies rather than against them, as RB has done. You have met him, found him credible, and are happy to promote him here ; your privilege.

But I take a different view.