Member Info for Genghis15

BNB
That didn't stop Poo going below $30 in 2015, and is to some extent irrelevant in the short term. Once the wells are sunk they will keep pumping, even if the owners go bust.

Poo will be determined by supply/demand, and it takes a long time for individual economics to balance the equation, which is why over time Poo has fluctuated so widely.

Imv the current decline is only partly on oversupply fears and the current balance, and doubts over OPEC+ cuts.

What is reinforcing it is general economic jitters, leading to fears of a demand drop. Brexit fears do not help, either, as the last thing a shaky world economy needs is a disruption of that sort.

This share can ride all that out, but it's an unwelcome backdrop, to say the least.

p12 here
https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media/Files/H/Hurricane-Energy/documents/presentations/Hurricane%20Corporate%20Presentation%20-%204Q%202018%20SECURED.pdf

opex $21 per barrel @ $50 oil.
capex is sunk and can be ignored, bar interest on the CBs.

Divecentre
All the words you quote are pre the Spirit deal. I am sure that changed everything and is behind the "delay", or at least most of it.
I say that bcos I cannot believe the sort of slippage you describe has been occasioned by technical issues / glitches alone.
I believe as i have said b4 that much upgrading work will have been carried out, tho possibly the AM will still need some downtime in 2020 b4 achieving 40k bpd.
I'm guessing that hooking up to WOSP might necessitate a brief shutdown anyway, and we can't do 40k bpd without that gas solution.
Biffa's point about delay of FOIL is valid ; it is a shame HUR have not felt able to be more open with shareholders on what is going on.

We may never find out ; my best guess is that this secrecy is all some sort of corporate poker game, to maximise value/progress b4 the vultures descend. But it's all a bit out of my experience, so who knows.

I follow Art Berman, and he talks much sense ; but figuring out the shale thing is not easy, and he admits that after 40years in oil he still doesn't always get things right.

Seems to me that current bullish shale fcasts are likely overdone, partly cos recent Poo decline will crimp 2019 growth fcasts pretty quickly.

But a lot of other stuff going on to, such as Trump's tariffs driving up the costs of steel for pipes and drilling kit, and labour costs going back up as drill numbers increase. On the other side, Big oil is getting in bcos of short paybacks..

I don't have the tools to analyse this properly, but I suspect not many do. My best guess, fwiw, is that shale will decline pretty quickly after a couple years or so as the sweet spots are exhausted, but as a layman I may be mistaken.

Very interesting.

Thanks for posting.

ML
30k to 40k of course.

17k is not capacity, it is HUR's intended start up rate for well/reservoir management reasons.

escargot, the cycles that create and end ice ages are well understood, relying principally on orbital variation and the wobble of the axis of spin.

Understanding is pretty solid now of climate history, and the role of the carbon cycle in it, including the hotter periods in the past.
Nowhere in the climate record has the climate warmed globally as fast as the last 150 years. It simply cannot be coincidence.

Fecking astonishing to find anyone denying man made climate change, but I suppose it's revealing to see who the flat earthers are that walk among us.

WW

I'm not talking about employees in the pub.

I'm talking about the decision makers in the boardrooms, principally, and I cannot believe they would not be keeping a close eye on a game changing source of hydrocarbons with implications not just for HUR, but for existing acreage across the whole NS basin.

But the other end of the scale, the ST pump and dump traders, might well also push up the SP once milestones are passed. I am not a ST trader tho, so perhaps boyzee may have a comment about that.

Fwiw, altho Santa has flown past the stock market this year, i reckon there may be some blue days ahead.

There is a sporting chance, at least, of hookup b4 NY ; anyone watching here (that means, I think, the whole NS ibdustry, and more) will be watching ever more closely.
And if indeed we are being shorted, a good couple of blue days could trigger covering that magnifies any rise.

LS

I would guess you are right.

Although not a particularly challenging procedure, at least in NS terms, it is a critical one.

Any mishap, any slight damage, to either turret or buoy at this stage could delay things for many months. So my guess is that no chances will be taken in even slightly sub optimal weather conditions.

Nice jaunt for SIPP, perhaps?

Well, I remain baffled by the current SP.

PoO looking stable, the boat close to sailing, hookup and commissioning round the corner.

Absolutely baffling.

He is talking specifically about a "no deal" Brexit.

In that scenario he is correct, as the existing arrangements cannot be immediately replicated overnight.

Steady on , wellwell, you'll be getting a reputation for positivity if you're not careful!

Talk of risk is way overblown. Of course there is the normal operational risks, but these can and will be managed, as they are every day by hundreds of companies around the globe. I am confident HUR will do the same.

There is a smidgeon of geological risk, ie wells not performing as predicted, but again hundreds of companies manage this risk every year. The fact of it being FB mb adds a little risk, but not much ; not my judgement but that of RT, Edison, CPR, Kerogen, CA (yes, them too) and investors in the EPS fundraise, to name just a few.

There is only one major risk here and that is sectoral, not HUR specific, which is PoO and all the issues that surround it, which we could debate all day.
But for the moment PoO is stable, OPEC+ appear to jhave our backs, as it were.

Good old Scottish granite!

LS
"So do HUR start paying Bluewater a day rate for AM only once hooked up to the buoy - or is the meter already running?"

At this time I cannot point you to the exact words, but my firm recollection is that Bluewater are "incentivised" by having payment linked to production. Exactly when that arrangement starts, or the details of it, I don't recall seeing.

However it does appear to be a very different arrangement to a straight dayrate, tho of course the contract will be complex and mb a tad hybrid. Doubt we'll ever know exactly!

thanks to edyscot & fandg2 also ; I have no technical expertise or experience here.

Thanks, Biffa, for clarification. Good to know my memory/interpretation seems about right to you as well.