Member Info for Genghis15

johnpwh
I have deleled posts b4 rather than retype in lower case...there should be highlight and one click "lower case" button!

On the analysts' "lame" questions, I am reminded of OilBarrel in 2014, the first time RT presented HUR's case following that summer's Lancaster drilling.
Some analyst had clearly done no homework at all, standing up to ask about how the wells would be fracked under 500ft of water....a patient if exasperated RT had to explain the difference between "fractured basement" and "hydraulic fracturing".
PIs are often much better read than analysts on these things, but analysts are mb better at estimating immediate worth. Mb not tho.

This is what was done last year for CMD, so precedent.

I caN ONLY ASSUME TIME PRESSURES MAY HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT, BUT YOU WOULD THINK THIS WOUD BE SOMETHING THEIR pr CO COULD HAVE SET UP WITHOUT TOO MUCH INPUT FROM MANAGEMENT.

Apologies for CAPSLOCK (again!)

Snowcameron, I agree.
I have not fully digested, at least in a form I feel I can articulate lucidly here, the strategic advantages/drivers in the latest RNS.

But one thing (imho) that many here may be overlooking is how far the strategic interests of the OGA and licence conditions may have driven this deal.
dspp commented but did not expand on possibility that OGA may have nudged things along ; debottlenecking goes hand in hand of course with a WOSP connection to allow increase production, tho I would not be surprised to see a 2nd FPSO in the mix at some point prior to FFD.
dspp also mentions the possibilities at Solan ; again, OGA will bang heads if need be to improve recovery/efficiencies ; given our lack of activity on Strathmore, it would be no surprise to see it surrendered in some quid pro quo.

Not sure about 31st round ; as things stand HUR seem to have enough on their plate. But a lot can change in 2 months.

Enuff for now.

imho that's too far in the future to materially affect today's SP, certainly before Warwick has even been drilled.

bigsmoke
Yes it does, but "treasury management" is bean counter speak for cash and cashflow management.

And from yesterday "HUR will still have to pay for the operation! "

That liability remains, yes. But I doubt very much if HUr will ever pay it, or not all of it ; there will be further FOs if initial drills successful,of which there is no great doubt.

Replying to @mgrahamwood @hurricomms
Thanks Malcy, closed or open conference call?
9:49 AM - 3 Sep

@mgrahamwood
Sep 3

Replying
Analysts I guess

"Ghengis you know as well as I do what I'm talking about. RB makes a suggestion, gets lambasted for it, now the BOD do the same thing and it's ok. I'd prefer it if you were honest and said you know what, maybe RB was onto something all along than stick to the same bull."

It's not bull. RB did not make a suggestion, he asked a hypothetical question about a hypothetical deal that never existed.
The BoD have done a concrete deal with a real partner, real money, and real commitment to move the project forward.
If RB had been in possession of that wherewithal, that commitment, that expertise, I am sure he would have been listened to.

I am genuinely baffled why you continually give so much credibility to a very small time fund manager, with no previous oil industry expertise, as against industry pros like Kerogen, industry practitioners like Spirit/Centrica, and a very experienced, credible, and reputable BoD in not just Robert Trice, Neil Platt, and Alastair Stobie, but senior NED David Jenkins and his colleague John Van Der Welle, not to mention other major shareholdrrs and joint founder James Huddleston.

.

WW First you acknowledge it wasn't a real offer then go on to compare it with this week's deal. One is real. The other never existed. An imaginary construct.

WW There was no "infamous Linwick offer" unless you know something nobody else does. There was a question at the AGM from RB asking if RT would accept $500m for Lincoln, which was answered in the negative. Hypothetical, possibly frivolous, probably mischievous. There is no evidence at all that any such offer was ever made.

Agree, aduk.

We've had enough of dilution, better to get this deal and accelerate proving up.

There are too many investors happy to make judgement on the deal without understanding the discounted value of unproven resources or the time value of money.
You can be sure both Alastair Stobie and Kerogen will have modelled this and are happy with what their spreadsheets produce.

For a balanced and well informed post on all this, I can do no better than recommend dspp's posts over the last couple days.

AFAIK they mean that bis their estimate of the value of the share at the time of the note, taking account of risk.

That's why it's usually called a RENAV, or Risked Net Asset Value.

As for how they evaluate risk, read the Edison note on HUR https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/hurricane-energy767094/preview/

and it's update here
https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/hurricane-energy

And just to help things along, Poo is pushing towards $80. Brent $79.50 as I type.

"transformational" according to Cantor.

dspp
Excellent posts and thank you for that.
With regard to delaying Whirlwind, tho, I am conscious of your previous post hinting at the dark hand of the OGA ; not sure of the licence commitment there but OGA will of course want to push things on.

it is easy for investors to forget (tho i'm sure you haven't) that these assets do not belong to HUR, they belong to the state, and come with lots of obligations and stipulations.

"now there’s a farm-out, which is what Richard Bernstein has wanted all along."

It's what HUR wanted all along too. It's what we all wanted all along. It's what I wanted all along, but I'm not trying to take credit for it.

RB is not on the Bod, and is trying to take credit for something he had absolutely no part in. RT is on record somewhere (I will search out a link later) saying that Kerogen were known to HUR pre IPO.

RB only asked a hypothetical Q at AGM. If a deal like this was actually on the table at that time, I am quite sure HUR would have taken it.

Given there is absolutely no evidence in the public domain that RB introduced Kerogen to HUR, I can only conclude that perhaps you heard it from him?

Interesting comments in there

"Chris Cox, Spirit Energy’s chief executive, said that the deal had taken shape after a chance meeting at Aberdeen airport with Neil Platt, a former colleague at BG Group and now Hurricane’s chief operating officer.

He said that Spirit was keen to buy into the Greater Warwick area before Hurricane starts production next year at the Lancaster field, because the assets will become more valuable if Hurricane is able to prove that the site could produce successfully in the long term. He said the deal represented a “tremendous opportunity” for Spirit."

ifonly

I mean no offence but given the level of knowledge you display on here you are right to be nervous! We have all been caught out buying on the up only to see a SP settle back or fall. One must also bear in ind that no matter how good a share, it will be affected by externalities ; stock market crash, economic downturn, etc.

In HUR's case, the biggest externality is the oil price. That is looking good atm, and HUR is in a very good place, imo.

But there is always risk in the stock market.

"Justify, please" is not an order it is a request, so get off the high horse.

Richard Bernstein introduced Kerogen to HUR? First I've seen of that suggestion; I don't believe that to be true and would like to know why you do.

SS
I have crossed swords with persimmon in the past but cannot fault him here.

"until there is a drill with a substantially viable find that the s.p will only 'drift' up and down albeit with a small overall upwards shift."

That substantial find may well come sooner than he expects but imho he is right to ground expectations.

Oppositely, I find myself almost always recommending your posts!