Member Info for Genghis15

Fred

Imho a 10 bag from your 33p entry is perfectly possible, tho mb not just yet!

However in the next 4 months, ie b4 Xmas, I expect us to be well north from here, and certainly over £1, just based on events we know about.

September
Sea trials/sailaway
Surf Completion

October
AM arrival in field
Buoy Hookup
Start of commissioning

November
Comissioning continues
FOIL likely

December
FOIL almost certain

That's just the project timeline. Then there's the things we know must be in the works, but have no info about.

The move to a main market which must be progressing behind the scenes. Now this may or may not happen this year but when it does tracker funds will be forced buyers and should give substantial support to the SP.
Then there's the FO/TO possibilities, which are unknown and to some extent unguessable. While the default assumption must be that 3 to 6 months production is required to bring in a deal, that does not rule out an early move. Malcy beams when pointing this out, not bcos he knows something (imho) but bcos he knows the industry.

But even if 6 months is required, that's much less than a year away, by which time we will have punched holes in Lincoln, Halifax and Warwick, and mb Whirlwind, again imo.
What are we worth then if all those fields are shown to have, say, somewhere between 3 and 5B barrels recoverable?

So current SP is not a bother, The only thing we need which is out of our control is a stable or rising PoO.

Newsflow absence key, surely.

But we know sea trials/sailaway must be close, as, I guess, will be SURF completions.

August has been disappointing, but i'm confident September will more than make up for it.

Strudel I commend your approach but bear in mind Beaufort was an outlier for a no of reasons. Choose your provider carefully and the likelihood of a problem is tiny. But it is nt zero, as we probably all believed previously. We should all be raising this issue with our MPs and demanding the law be changed to restore confidence.

I am still puzzled why the focus on cash?

If your platform/nominee broker goes bust ALL your ring fenced assets can be accessed to pay for the liquidation costs, that's the issue.

IJWT

Not sure I understand ; this is about safety of dealing platforms, not asset allocation.
Or am I missing something?

Assets. Shares, anything.

If its a nominee service, the ring fencing is not as robust as it might be.

That said, it is pretty safe ; but the Beaufort affair shows it is not 100%.

This episode is a warning to both select your dealing platform carefully and spread things a little.

The ring fencing is not as robust as everybody thought, and Beaufort clients have had a nasty shock.

https://www.fca.org.uk/news/news-stories/information-customers-beaufort-securities-limited-bsl-and-beaufort-asset-clearing-services-limited

https://www.ft.com/content/eb265556-6b01-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

" I believe RT to be quite bull headed"

I'm not sure about that, . But even if it were true, surely he has a management team of AS and NP to liaise with ; a co secretary to advise on legalities ; and a BoD including Kerogen and 2 NEDS to account to.

In due course, if we FO and stay independent, proceed to production and enter the FTSE 100, he may not be the ideal CEO and prefer to go back to "Rock Consultant" or similar, if we get that far.

But for now I am happy to put all my complete faith in the BoD, and have no concerns about governance at all.

ADUk, just what are you doing?

After considerable scolding the squabbling posts have died down, so why put up a political post that practically invites more squabbling?

IJWT
I know your post was generally positive, and I'm not in any case averse tom criticism of the HUR case, but...…

I would not agree that there are any "governance issues". I read the Annual Report from cover to cover and it more than complies with every Code of Practice and guideline going, and is certified as doing so by the auditors.

The additional NEDS are only required as and when we go for a main listing, and I'm sure they will be in place in due course. But these are forward looking plans, not "issues".

Of course the co has a "Plan B", but it has no need to spell it out at this stage. EPS revenue will make it perfectly feasible to go it alone if HUR, and Kerogen, choose to do so ; but few think it will come to that, either in the industry or the City.

As for "historic mistakes", well, you can only be referring to one episode. I don't think I want to stir that one up again, except to say that it would be fascinating to one day get the story of why it was handled as it was.

Rudey
" I believe Europa will do a deal on Inishkea and a south porcupine farmout."

So do I.

The current SP drop will be excruciating for LT holders, and I am now down almost 50% on my vey small investment.
But for me it represents an opportunity to pick up some cheap shares, hopefully sometime soon, certainly by Xmas.

There is no saying when FO news may come, could be Q4, could be 2019, but come it will, barring a PoO collapse.
Ithe meantime even positive news from adjoining acreage could easily send the SP up by several pence, so LT holders should not worry too much.

Nothing like a good quotation to look like you know what you're as wise asc the man who said it , god or oxen!.
But if we're talking bulls try this one.

https://www.inspiringquotes.us/quotes/mfzY_oPASrFIV

Ok, try this one ; I'm sure I needn't tell you the attribution.

"[The] stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the active to the patient."

"since the fundraising the price has been determined by the institutional investors "

Not sure that's true ; except for CA selling into rises the SP is surely driven by PI churn rather than LT insti holdings.

Happy to be corrected.

"A handful of patience is worth a bushel of brains"
Dutch Proverb

Hmmm.
No offence, Mandrill, but i'm not sure the BB is here to give you "insight".

Pose questions, post informed opinion, ask for guidance to co documents, timescales, operations, and technical matters and you'll get a wealth of help here, I suggest.

But posting focussed on short term SP movements drawing negative conclusions is not likely to elicit you much "insight".

To get that you might like to start by asking "insightful" questions, rather than drawing questionable conclusions from questionable data about daily buys and sells.

"The first oil
production is targeted for the middle of 2019, although it is possible it could begin as early as the end of 2018."

First time I've seen that in an official HUR document, I think. (1-3)

ifonly

If you want to post pointless comments like "bottom line it's going down and I'm in the red,only blue interests me." you are welcome to do so.

Just please start a new topic with it and stop hijacking everyone else's. Thanks to you, this thread is now all about you and the OP is forgotten.

Just to update my thoughts on FOIL, I chose 21 October (I think!) in Reverandy's sweep, and will not mess around changing it.

But I revised my thinking after the AGM where Neil Platt guided (I can't recall his exact words) towards a commissioning period of some weeks post hoohup.

Given that sailaway now appears likely to be end Aug, arrival in field is mid October at the earliest.

Hookup requires a weather window but even assuming the weather gods smile on us, i don't expect FOIL b4 mid November. And given WOS weather, could even be December.

All jimo and fwiw, I have no experience in this field and am going on co statements and what I think i know of the project.

Londoner

Most responses to your post wandered quickly away from the OP, so fwiw;

I appreciate the logic underlying your post re SP but just don't think the market that rational ; if it were how/why would it fall from 56p to 46p in a month whilst all the while getting closer to FOIL?

"Does it matter that much to LTHs?"
Wel, no. But we all feel better sitting on a rising rather than a falling SP.

BellNippleBear
Your speculation re contingency savings from early FOIL is misplaced in my view. We know that contractors are incentivised and lump summed. So there will be only minor savings. And at the AGM RT went out f his way to clearly rule out, without being asked, any drilling before cashflow.