Member Info for Genghis15

was he wearing cowboy boots? Was his trademark at one time.

Mb we're about to bid for SOU......

aduk
You've got me there, never knew about Wellington.

Given it was just 2 years after RT started in his shed, in 2006, I think we can say he;s redeemed himself in spades since.

Goose
" As many have experienced only too frequently in the past, extended schedules and radio silence are not renowned behavioural patterns associated with success. "

Very true. But not here. As a LT er yourself you know it's just HUR style ; head down, do the job, say you've done it.

I was expecting a flare by now, but the lack of one so far doesn't concern me. It will come, hopefully b4 the weekend, tho we are I think too late now for an RNS before Monday, earliest.

This may be an undrilled prospect, but is far from a wildcat, and HUR just don't drill dry holes. Bet its a whopper when it finally arrives!

CP
Chablard has a point. 14p off the high, about half that off the pre
F,OIL level.

That's over 20% and 10% respectively, while milestones are passed and POO remains strong.
Just extremely puzzling, and more than a tad frustrating.

As for Sotb's post, there is no reason to think that in fact the opposite.

See hoofhearted's post re "blow the doors off".

I am I intrigued that you say there have been "schoolboy howlers" on WD.

Can you elucidate?

daltry
Of course you are right.

But the failure of this share to reflect success is still beyond me.

Desmond45, correct.

Best ignored completely.

Olly

Agree re RBD. I was hoping to top slice here to increase there, but will hang in here till CMD now, at least..

The train over there is just leaving the station, imho.

extrader/aduk

I am of course famous for my forbearance, but the hordes grow restless......

Dc
My name has been much misspelt over the centuries, Chengiz, Jengis, Chinggis, Changez, Jinggish, to name a few.

I will restrain my hordes from ravishing your lands in revenge at this small slight. :)

Dc
I understand your reasoning , but if it was going up - as it has happened prior to other RNSs, and not just here - we would say people were getting on board in anticipation of a rise.

None of it makes sense to me, I know it's not 100% certain but in O&G terms, it's a near as dammit.

Yet plenty of other events with much lower CoS see SP bid up before news.

As Biffa says, it's all happening on thin volume so we should not read too much into it.

Hugely frustrating, not to say mystifying, for us LTHs tho.

Like many I am at a loss as to the current level and direction of the SP.
I thought we would be nudging 70p. at the very least, following successful FOIL and every reason to expect a positive WD well result. 53p is a nonsense, but I have no idea at all how or why it is where it is.

I am sure we will see a flare this week, followed, probably Monday, by another laconic RNS saying the well flowed and further info will be revealed on CMD.

CMD now becomes the possible Big Bang event, imho. We know HUR will give out much more reservoir/production detail on the EPS ; if I am right they will hit us with an upgraded batch of info on WD at the same time.
What will that info be?

Well, I'm thinking even better than expected PI, daily flow, and mb other parameters from EPS, and for WD to confirm good flow from deeper levels so proving up both a huge resource and another world class reservoir.

And that surely must attract the sort of attention that pushes the SP nearer to analysts targets, which fwiw are 100p+.

littlened
True but beside the point.

The point is thy are in charge of the supply of fiat money, so are never broke ; they can just magic more of it overnight.

"it doesn’t feel to me like the right time to be taking some of my holding off the table"

You're damn right it doesn't. We're just getting started. I reckon 2 to 3 years to see the eventual exit, which will be a voluntary winding up, imho,.

And will see the price well north of here, tho I'm not going to put a figure on it.

All imho, of course.

You may well be right, but perhaps that is not the point.

The point is that this hugely increased production has come at the cost of constant capital inputs of cheap money, courtesy of QE and negative real interest rates.

It is, in other words, unprofitable, and that has been masked by cheap money and unscrupulous execs.

But it is hard to see, if that is the case, why established majors like Exxon and Chevron are going large in it.

So the picture is not clear, but but it does seem to me that all is not as it seems with the shale boom.

Yes, very interesting. there have long been doubts over the forecasts for ever expanding US shale production, this illustrates them nicely.

Certainty, no.

But likelihood? Given HUR's record of always hitting oil, the fact the rig's still there, and the geological similarities to our other fields, I think we can say with near certainty that there's reservoir there. I think the fact they had confidence to go straight to a horizontal future producer show how confident HUR were. Hell, RPs even show 935P without a drill hitting the ground.

So, will a DST work? Well, why wouldn't it? The mud issues on Halifax will have been addressed, in spades I imagine.

Could something go wrong? Well, of course, it COULD do.

But I reckon we've got every right to expect a damn great flare later this week, based on all we know about HUR, about FB, and the successful (so far) EPS.

SotB
that was kind of my thinking ; if the mud blocked the hole how could you place a gauge. But as I say, I have no expertise, so asking rom those that do.

I don't have that much in here as I am heavily invested I other O&G, was planning to increase here if/when that matured, and may still do.

I am very comfortable with RBD, much more than any old AIM oilie.

I have seen and spoken to the principals, and I like their investment trust like approach, which spreads risk but still keeps huge potential by focussing as they have on near term opportunities.

They seem to have chosen them well, despite a couple of disapoint5ments, and the upside looks huge to me.

But unlike other oilies, we may need for discoveries to mature and be disposed of b4 we see true value in the SP.

This is a slow but sure winner, imho.