Member Info for Genghis15

imho your timing is great. not bcos of Bod changes, tho, but bcos Woodford's dumping has pushed it down to unjustified levels.
Hoping he might push it down further, while I await events elsewhere to mature ; but opportunity awaits here, for sure.

Correction ; c. $250m, not 425m.

EPS is NOT calculated net of capex, but for that reason it is a flawed indicator for valuation purposes, if net cash at bank is being drained by capex, all the EPS in the world will not make a profitable company, as many shale players are finding out.

I'm just pointing out that you cannot arrive at a company valuation based on EPS, if you ignore present and future capex.

The value of this company will be based not on the financial flows from EPS, but on the huge potential reserves it proves up.
Cash from the EPS strengthens the company's hand, in that it gives a planned route to self financed FFD ; but key to seeing full value here is the arrival of FO or TO offers, imho

Be careful making one sided financial assumptions.
Cash flow of c. 425m is net of opex, but not necessarily net cash to the bottom line ; there are costsbeing incurred already (must be!) for the progression of the gas solution, and planning for drills next year, which will eat into that cash this year, and even more next.

We don't know by how much, bcos HUR have given no budgetary projections. But it is futile to make EPS (Earnings Per Share) projections without knowing capex plans.
And btw, AS has made clear that any incone from gas sales will be minimal given the current price at Sullom Voe, calling it a "black oil enabler only".

Bcos the AM is performing well.

AS was clear at AGM that the projected production ramp up was not constrained by well or reservoir considerations, purely a contingency against operational issues while breaking in a refurbed boat.
Of course, issues might still arise to knock the average back down, so their guidance is still valid, at least for the moment.

But if this rate continues past end Q3, perhaps they will consider updating it.

In brief, no, and no.

They have indicated WW is being considered ; imho any development will have to await the WOSPS tie In (if gas) and mb aNOTHER fpso IF OIL/CONDENSATE.

Thank you for your kind words.

So, no one outside "industry" can have an opinion here?

Whilst I would love to see a "sustained period of Brent at $80+", , a) That seems very unlikely to me, given current Poo supply/demand issues, and the need for the Clown in the WH to have low Poo as election nears. b) I disagree that $80 is necessary ; anywhere over $60 should do.
With costs driven down across the industry, some companies are making as good returns at $60 as in 2013 at $100.

"The fundamental belief that this bargain market will end shortly is one of the foundations of the RBD strategy."

Mb. But with discoveries like WN, and the size of prospects elsewhere, RBD can come very good indeed at current Poo.

It seems to me that the risks to Poo are heavily to the downside atm, absent some major disruption in the ME.
It will be interesting to see if OPEC+ are able to agree to prop it up, but if you think PoO is going back to $100 while Trump is looking for re election, then, you - sunshine - may be the one in the wrong place!

PDMS
"The top of the asset disposal curve will occur when POO is higher, the big boys start chucking money around again and the bargains dry up. That will be the time to start getting out. Not yet."

I suggest the wording should be "if" not "when" before POO.

Well, just my take on it, I think they will want a full appraisal of WN b4 walking.

But if S&S decide now is the time, that will be fine with me.

Jimbo, that's my take on things too, fwiw. Plenty of upside, but NPVs are not much of a guide given the RBD business model of prove, and dispose. these guys are from a corporate finance background, and seem very focused on getting out at the optimum point on the valuation curve.

They've done fantastically well with their project and partner election, the final proof of the pudding will be when we get to disposal, and are talking turkey with buyers.

Imo the cap reduction is just va piece of corporate housekeeping, I'm not reading anything into it in the near vter. It does, of course, clear the decks for some sort of return but none of our assets are yet at the stage where value has been maximised and a sale is imminent.
Another 6 months, tho, and it could be game on for at least a couple of them ; but it will depend on the corporate/O&G landscape at the time whether we see a divi/buyback/tender offer. or if S&S plough the cash into new opportunities.

Either way, I'm very comfortable with RBD, and S&S.
Almost 2 years since I invested here, after listening to and talking afterwards with Steven at OilBarrel. I liked the story then, and like it even more now.

Mud losses, I assume.

https://on.ft.com/2yXGMD0

I have been out of PPC for some time, as the SP seemed never to reflect operational progress.

But sensible comments above ; $$ revenues mean PPC will be more attractive following the peso fall. The market worry, of course, is that a CFK return could see the business environment change, thru taxation and/or nationalisation fears.

the action around AMER shows that S Am does attract investors when compelling value is on offer, tho of course PL has a blocking stake here. Either way, at current SP PPC is looking pretty attractive, imho.

I'm holding off a bit longer, not bcos of any doubts over PPC or Argentina, just the global oil picture. If that evolves positively, PPC will be a top pick in the O&G sector , again imho.

To return to the OP, LC news should imho be by month end. ish.

But any flare from a DST should get reported earlier, mb 10 days time, but that's speculation on my part.

Yes, very interesting.

Lesson One : if you're gonna fly close to the legal wind, don' do it to a firm of lawyers.

Eco profits, might we surmise?

Hopefully a few thousand barrels of mud......

Shorter.

Likely b4 month end, imho,

Well, yes, I did say "assuming".

I wouldn't be in here if I wasn't pretty confident, WD notwithstanding.