Member Info for Genghis15

slip, excuse for stressing the point again, but they sre probably OT "pushing the flow up".

It has been statedb4, but again by AS at CMD that the 9k bpd guidance is a reflection of contingency for equipment teething problems/ramp up, NOT a function of well productivity.

So we don't know if they've ben producing at 13k bpd every day, or 20k + with 30% downtime. They haven't told us, so we just don't know.

I can't add anything technical here, 'cos I have no experience at all.

But may I just point out afaik, in the end, the problem with the well was not in the drilling ; it was that they penetrated a poorly connected part of the reservoir, and even a 1000psi drawdown only sucked out the drilling brine.

So surely the questions to be asked, and lessons to be learned, relate to pre drill imaging and planning? Unless, of course, drilling ops caused the repositioning of the H section away from the original depth, hence the preplanned section not being penetrated.

GF, yes, that's how I understand it. A positive , not a negative.

Good news today re the 2nd lift, it seems, with production above target at the moment.

At CMD if I recall correctly AS restated guidance of9k bpd for Q3, so we are exceeding that comfortably at the moment.

Whilst I share to a degree the frustration here at missed PR opportunities, in this case it may be sensible. Bear in mind the guidance of 9k average was a function of AM downtime, not well productivity, so they may wish to keep that contingency in hand for any issues that may arise.
Any short interruption due to technical/weather issues could easily knock the AVERAGE Q3 figure back to guidance. Hopefully not, but in this case it may simply be too early to prudently change the guidance.

He may have done - he referenced "some bright spark2, or similar, phoning Vopak.

But let's hope not.
In the absence of good PR from HUR, it seems its up to us to ferret out the good news stories!

Nothing I can add to that!

Two big knocks in the last couple weeks, from WD, and the Kerogen partial sale. Let's leave K aside for the moment, and focus on operations and geology, as presented in CMD.

I have just rewatched the CMD, and tbh imho those who knocked the presentational skills are way out of order ; aside from the rather abrupt referral to CPR of one Q I think this was not just extremely professionally done, but laid out a wealth of facts for all to see.
The list of positives was almost embarrassing, the incredibly high PIs of the EPS wells, the increased production estimate, and the likely even lower than estimated OWC. the word "DELIGHTED" was used repeatedly re the EPS, with facial and body language that was simply, unmistakeably, genuine.
Even on WD, which some here have wrongly referred to as a "duster", RT made the comment that "with the oil column indicators and the pressure that we've seen, there must be a permeable and well connected fracture system present, to achieve the pressures we've measured, and HCs are present.....more likely we just penetrated a poorly connected part of that system".

So, WD is not a total disappointment ; obvs a flow test would have been ideal, but the WC well should flow like the EPS crestal wells.

Operationally, financially HUR is still on track, and a successful LC well, a 2nd EPS lift very soon ; and continued EPS production in line with guidance should, imho, see a good price recovery here before too long.
But wrtdik, DYOR!

true, LW, but Sipp has a point ; he's troll and a prat, an irritation, an annoyance, and best be rid of him.

I agree, but don't hold your breath. At CMD they said something about updating the market in January on the EPS. Past form suggests that little info will be released prior to that.

F22
yes, much to agree with, but I must take issue a little with the" HE need to learn" part. Imo they do seem a little less than ideal presentationally ; I do not agree with the CMD criticism, but do think the WD RNS should have been much better dealt with. The Kerogen moves heighten my feelings that this does not pas the sniff test.

But geologically, operationally, I can't see how anyone can second guess them ; they are the FB experts, trailblazers, pioneers.

I saw RT at the RGS last week, and without doubt he was at the top of his peer group. WD was of course a disappointment, but if anyone is making the decisions about where/how/what to drill, and if anyone is going to immediately learn from them, it is HUR, imho.

Make of it what you will.
Clearly he didn't answer my question ; I never expected him to. It was just a way to draw something out, and see what he WOULD say.

And that was it.

TDG
the resource is pretty much proved, even without Warwick, the crucial thing is the EPS.

The company is sat on more than enuff resource, its the producibility which is being proved by the EPS that is the value driver here.

Me to Roy Kelly "what price will you sell at"

RK "clearly not priced anywhere near true value at the moment". From memory, but other were listening also from this BB.

The price then was 56p.

FFS, some of the criticism here is getting embarrassing.

He's the founder and CEO of an oil company, not running for office. He's presenting to an audience of professionals who are capable of DYOR, not an audience of challenged, flag waving dimwits. I don't expect a CEO to have oratorical skills fit for the stage and screen, nor an inspirational rabble rouse who promises the Earth. I expect presentations that address the facts and put them out there for us to see.
And that, mostly, is what they did. There was a moment or 2 of abruptness in the Q&A, which is regrettable, but anyone who has been in the spotlight for almost 2 hours would probably get a bit ragged by then.

If you want a barnstormer to get you on your feet, go to the theatre ; this was a factual presentation with a misstep or 2 at the end.

Good enuff, at least for me.

Cebo
My hope too, tho could take a few more days. I rather suspect any insti buying will come from PE, rather than retail fund managers or pension/insurance funds.
Let's hope for a Kerogen rather than a CA, if that happens.

ADUK

I think you will find the SURF installation capable of at least 30k bpd. Then next years infrastructure on GWA fills the other 10k bpd post gas solution.

Insti buying.
Predictive text.

Mb have it right, it's been the thing to do on other rns's while awaiting next news.

But I'm not sellling. Post CMD, it only needs some I still buying in the next couple weeks and a surge higher is not out of the question.

And bear on mind the "6 to 12 months" of EPS to prove, several times incl yesterday this has been shortened to 3 months.

I'm not really a trader anyway, but atm I just dont want to be out. No saying what might be in the works.

JB
It is filling at a geological rate, we r emptying at a commercial rate.
Of course it will run dry.

johnnie
Best thing at 1.47 is that when comparing the Swedish word "fock", meaning pen15, a picture of Piers Morgan displaYS….