Member Info for Genghis15

"I suspect there’s an appreciation by the more savvy investors of what risk the current drill presents of it doesn’t deliver and money has been removed from the table. "

remove the words "more savvy", substitute "fear" for "appreciation" and I might agree.

Name me an oilco with a better record than HUR, never a dry hole despite being a supposedly risky, supposedly frontier, supposedly new play, geologically unproven, explorer.

For Hurricane Energy, we share Morgan Stanley's views on valuation: assuming $75 oil, potential NAV is 347p. Our bull case is for a value of $10.78 billion.
#hur
10.78B is c. $4 sp so. £3+

https://twitter.com/CrystalAmberRB1/status/1138466066332626948?s=19

Beg pardon , thanks Biffa for correcting my confusion.

Oops, sorry for duplicate post.

At AGM, AS explained that Pelham hold the convos and are required by their mandate to be neutral on the stock, therefore have to hold shorts to balance their position.

How that bears on the current sp I don't know, ......

Dream?
Au contraire, £2 is the minimum.

Dream?
Au contraire, £2 is the minimum.

Biffa
My strong impression from AGM was that main listing off agenda cos they think they will be taken out b4 they could do it, so wasted effort.
Of course nobody said as much, but taken together with "expect(ing) to be interrupted" that's how I read it.

Rig count even declining for months but forecasts OF US shale production keep going up.

Efficiency gains? Or conflicting signals?

Were building.
Bet they've gone down since 01 June,.

Someone's been selling, and all fingers point that way

It would take a good company accountant a while with Excel to work out the benefits of one over the other, depending on likely terms.

Fortunately we have a FD who trust to make those judgements for me!

Oh, and btw, the VCS incentivises him to get it right…..

Not exactly.

AS' words were "we are working on WW to bring it on", per my notes.

I do not believe cashflow from EPS would be sufficient both to build a pipeline and progress WW, so a partnering must be on the cards, imho.

"The question, perhaps, for investors whether Hurricane will be left to continue this journey alone or whether as a fledged production and exploration business it will find itself among the next names to feature in the takeover stories"

"A successful WD.
CMD IN July.
Lancaster production increased to 13000bpd & a 2nd successful well by the end of August.

Someone's got to bite."

I agree. I'll give it till September, subject to the usual Poo caveat.

In fact, given the flowchart on the 2Q presentation, I also expect news in the next month or so on a partnering of Whirlwind and a deal to build the gas pipeline and connection. Just look at the scheduled start time for the pipe, and AS' remarks at AGM about progressing Whirlwind.

So by end September, if I am right, HUR will have a pipeline deal, 3 months+ proof of concept from the EPS, and a couple wells on Warwick proving (we hope!) another giant structure.

If that doesn't get the big boys moving, I don't know what will.

Saltire
I don't think that would work.

The OGA usually permits flaring only in smallish quantities, and operators must generally have a solution in place for gas produced in normal production. It must either be used for onboard power, reinjected, or stored/piped away. Any such surplus permits are, I think, likely to be too small to be of much use to HUR.

The permit for HUR to flare from the EPS has been granted for a limited period, in order to promote the deveopment of WoS FB, which might make the EPS prohibitively expensive otherwise.

That is all my understanding, if anyone has experience in the field I am open to correction.

WD results too.....

High risk, my arse.

12 months to proof of concept? Tosh.

There is a chance, tiny, imho - that Dr T has all this wrong and the wells do not flow , and peter out after a few months.

The only significant risk here is, was, and always will be PoO.

Until and unless we get a TR1, we don't know who is selling here. But CA have a record of selling into news, tho in this case with WD so close that makes no sense to me.

I note that Woodford holds 17% of CA, so is probably looking at selling some at least of that holding.

But I can't see how that would impact CA, their co structure would mean that would have no impact om their cash position or ability to hold their investment position in HUR.

any body got any thoughts on that?

My understanding from previous presentations is that Halifax was pure exploration, necessitating a heavy mud I case of high pressure, to me sure safety, so the drill was overbalanced. Not entirely a HUR decision, OGA etc will have had input.
Then on top of that there was the fines issue with paste, which I understand could be overcome using different chemical mix.

So, oil did not flow to surface, which was disappointing ; but I would not use the word "failure" on a well which discovered possibly as much as a billion barrels of oil.

I can name hosts of companies that would love a "failed" well like that.

ww

Lets see if we get a TR1 next week.