Member Info for Genghis15

As we seemingly drift ever downward, worth remembering that Lincoln is not too far away from a result ; likely b4 end of the month.
And assuming success, news will start to come off the rig in mb 10 days or so, and within couple weeks adjacent infrastructure could spot a flare.
That really is not far away now, and subject as ever to Poo holding up, there could be a big snap back here on not much news.

But decisions on where/what/how to drill will not have been taken by "rock lovers" alone ; plans will surely have been agreed by HUR and Spirit geos/reservoir modellers/ strategic finance teams., not to mention being second guessed by the Kerogen reps.

I submit that the HUR/Spirit team will have more expertise, and better modelling, to decide on these things than any of us, however experienced or qualified we may be.

F22
"Drilling wells below SC now between Lancaster and Halifax is just for rock lovers. "

I know you are an informed poster, and you often make interesting points ; as a non oilie myself I'm not in a position to agree or not wit your observations. But

Now look what you've done, buyinmay. Mention the b word and straightaway we're on to whose fathers fought in WW2. FFS, let's keep it relevant.
Anyway, whilst I understand ADUK's points, this share should imo be pretty Brexit proof. What it is not proof against id trump and his trade war driving the world to recession.

If that can be avoided, any Brexit troubles will make this a VERY attractive TO target for US PE firms, imho.

Quite right, chablard.

There is little reason to fear a mass sell off of shares whose income and assets are denominated in $$$s.

https://on.ft.com/2Kd3Y6K

https://on.ft.com/2ywaBKX

"Our risked valuation stands at 102.8p/share, or 38.5p/share excluding any value beyond Lancaster EPS."

So, no value AT ALL on Warwick, Whirlwind, Halifax, Lincoln. No value for Lancaster beyond the EPS volumes.

And it's still 102.8p, RISKED valuation. I know this is a brokers note only, but that must give an indication of how woefully undervalued we are here at 42/43p.

fwiw, aduk, I think the companies most likely to engage in this sort of opportunistic activity will be private equity, mostly US.

Indeed, those worrying about current SP movement misjudge this share.

Value is building, it will be realised when investments are liquidated.

Patience.

Makes UK companies cheap TO targets.

Anyone know of an undervalued company with income and assets denominated in $s, but shares quoted in £ ?

yes, you are. Companies are their own judge of what Sholders need to know, and HUR keep things close, mostly.

As far as liftings/production goes, the CMD stated something along the lines that the EPs would continue to be ramped up as projected, and that shareholders would be updated at CMD in Q1 ; or earlier if production/well performance differed from the projections.

So in the absence of updates, all is going to plan. The CMD was only 5 weeks ago, so I think it is reasonable to wait longer for further information.

It would be nice if they did a EPS update at the same time as LC drill results, but I'm not holding my breath.

BMD is o be ignored. oilmanjim is a new kid on the blog, so to speak, so I guess we have to wait and see ; but in the absence (afaik) of him publishing his cv I will take a pinch of salt with it.

At least with Malcy you know who he is, what he used to do, and that he knows his stuff. Ok, he's paid for by many, mb all, of the companies he comments on, but as long as you bear that in mind, he presents some useful info, imho.

Not at all. No way does BMD have an inside line to the council, he just takes a flyer on these things.

Anyway, it's good news, that's the main thing.

TBh I haven't kept up with Wressle planning, so I was speaking in general terms.

If it really is down to a national level decision that's obvs better, but politics is ever present. Is it a Tory/marginal constituency? Are the neighbouring ones?

These things can all come in to play.

"It will have nothing to do with Political opinion .
It will be decided on points of law . "

Don't bet on it. Protesters are increasingly adept at using planning conditions to disrupt/close/cancel permits for onshore, thru buggering about with slow dog walking on restricted access, to camera monitoring every wrong turn by a delivery vehicle.
Local politicians need re electing, they will bend over backwards to bend planning rules to block things.

I'm not saying it is impossible, just don't bank on it.

Are a bit pointless here, bcos we all know HUR will plow that back into the ground with new wells.
There will be little or nothing left for shareholder returns from this route for several years, until FFD over, so net cashflow each year is likely to be negligible.

The value is in moving things forward, and derisking/proving up the concept, and the resources, with each new drill, and with each passing day of the EPS.

Wressle progress would be great, but don't hold your breath. The opposition to onshore O&G is such that no one should be assuming it ever happens. "Rumours", my arse, BMD doesn't know any more than anyone else.

The real potential here is offshore Ireland, that's what we should be watching.

I sold mine too, but I've got as much right to post here as anyone.
For the record, as I have said b4, I sold at 8p (at sizeable loss) cos the downside risk was just too great.
I have no idea what comes next, I am keeping an eye here, but see no compelling reason to buy back at he moment.

The co will need cash to progress this, nobody knows how much. It will also need time, and we don't know how long, either. The only asset is a drug which, almost inexplicably, the FDa have declined to approve, so very hard to put a value on.

Given the need for cash, there would seem only 2 ways out ; a discounted raise or a fire sale, b4 cash runs out.

Mb a white knight will emerge, but even at current sp the risk of shareholder wipeout looks too big to me.

Apologies and sympathy to LTHs, but that's my opinion.

Sorry, fat fingers,.

16500bpd each, not 13500.

ADUK
"Current flow figures (which appear to be around 12,500 bbl/day under natural flow are fine right now, but the plan IS to increase from that. (Contrary to what you wrote, quoted above.) Which will probably require the pumps, and OF COURSE will increase the DD (or 'amount of suck')!"

If you refer back to CMD, it is clearly stated that EACH well flowed at 13500 bpd under natural flow.

So as I see it, there should be no need for pumps, and no increase in DD.

Happy to be corrected, but it seems pretty clear.