Member Info for Genghis15

DK, who knows. But a rising tide lifts all ships, so up for sure.

How about those wishing to discuss 9/11 set up a new thread, preferably on a separate bb, to discuss it?

TBC I am not saying the Saudis attacked themselves, ; I believe the story that the Houthis did it, with likely Iranian / Saudi dissident involvement.

But afaik, and I have no specialist knowledge, security is tight around these facilities, including against drones, and Saudi/US intelligence pretty good too. With it coming at such a convenient time, I just can't help wondering if security looked the other way for a few minutes...….who knows.

Lets wait and see how long the outage is, and by how much.

Atm it looks like the rest of OPEC will take this as an excuse o pump to the max, ostensibly to make good the shortfall.

If Abqaiq is restored quickly it might be hard to dial that back, meaning surpluses in coming months. What looks atm like good news for oil producers might in the medium term have the opposite effect.

So wait and see, my initial reaction is that shortage fears are likely to be overstated, and the price effect modest, unless things escalate.

AS was not asked this directly but either at CMD or AGM I remember him replying to a Q on pricing, . He stated that, essentially, our sales would be at spot Brent, with some formulaic adjustments.

However I believe AS and the BoD will always have review over this when circumstances change. BP contract notwithstanding, there are ways to hedge future oil sales, and imho the best people to decide if/when to do it are AS and the BoD.

price = prince, Saudi Royal

It is an interesting coincidence that only days after a price replaces the oil minister, with an implicit mandate to get oil prices up, an event occurs which limits oil production and drives up prices.

Given the OPEC cartels' workings, it was hard to see how the Saudis could get agreement n further cuts, and to cut alone would have looked weak, and sent the wrong message.

So.….an involuntary shut in of 5M bd, for a shortish (?) period, seems terribly convenient for Saudi oil policy, and even more convenient that it can be blamed on Saudi enemies.

Just saying.....after all this is the regime that dismembers opponents I its embassy, and thibks the world won't notice.

Hugely underwhelmingvresponse, but LT doesn't matter a jot.

Value is building. Oil is flowing, the model is proving, the (oil) world is watching.

Very comfortable, with the usual caveat, PoO which is currently behaving.

Gotta hold on here, I think , the next few months must see the sharks arriving.

HH

10k bd is available to the HUR/Spirit partnership, once the upgrade to 40k bpd, and the gas solution, is finished. the AMs current 30k bpd capacity is all for HUR and Lancaster.

Check out the CMD slides.

Remember HUR does not own 100% of Warwick/Lincoln.

Whilst I can find little to dispute in casapinos post, I confess to bafflement at the SP here, really, given the milestones passed The SP now is where it was a year ago, when the boat was still in Dubai, no cashflow in sight, no successful EPS steadily proving up the reservoir, and a year away from a successful Lincoln RNS, almost nailed on now.
yes, WD has knocked a bit of confidence ; but imho the Kerogen sale mb had more effect, showing that a major II would accept such a low price in order to balance its portfolio.

Nevertheless the SP must now be undervalued ; with the EPS flowing cash into the bank, gradually derisking the FB concept every day, and success at Lincoln, a SP rerate must come soon. Poo is behaving, too.

And its not just HUR ; I am equally baffled by the muted response to RBD's significant RNs yesterday.

Completely happy that both are going to fly soon, tho.

And as for the "Doc"...…..I concur, AWK.

jFP
The DST rate was also "constrained by surface equipment"

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/207243/siccar-point-aims-to-keep-options-open-with-new-gas-line-west-of-shetland/#

DK, No, I'm not guessing 15 days, but that's what the Lancaster well took. I shouldn't think this would be anywhere near as long, but I don't know any better than anyone else.

My guess would be mb the rest of this week, but that's just that, a guess.

This works better

http://www.devex-conference.org/perch/resources/hurricane-energy-real-time-data-interpretation-and-integration-leads.pdf

The 09 May 2017 link here

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/assets/technical-library

RBD, vg news from Romania, no movement at all. Like here tho, it will come.

Disagree, sheltie. After WD there were fears this could go the same way. The fact they have flared, confirmed oil flowed, and are testing pressure build up - when read in a HUR context- says a lot. This WILL be a commercial well, and be suspended as a future producer as planned.

HUR are back on track, and whilst there has been little instant SP reaction, just give it time.

"HUR dont believe Lancaster is connected to Lincoln".
Correct. And they're probably right, I'm certainly not qualified to second guess them.

But it's not, as yet, proven. So it's quite possible that the AM has shut in to check if flaring on the TOL shows any response at all at Lancaster.

Just my guess, well perhaps find out in due course.