Member Info for Garonne

Of course there are positives! Oil price down significantly and the pound up to over $1.31! Both big positives for the bottom line! As long as punters keep travelling and why wouldn't they, this will recover. Might take a while but £4 will be seen in the short to medium term and don't forget, IAG isn't just BA!

Not sure I agree there, James! Have you not noticed the worldwide tariff induced market turmoil, causing Pru's SP to significantly retreat? I guess the worry is that it could drop more or will the market stabilise? Seems to me Trump has ended globalisation in one fell swoop! But one hopes there should be enough wealth in China, Hong Kong, India, Africa, Indonesia etc. despite tariffs, to keep Pru in business for years to come. Maybe not having a presence in USA and Europe could still turn out to be a masterstroke! Let's hope so. 🤞

I assume, judging by the silence on here, everyone has sold out!

Just imposed by Trump on China, 34%, has sent the Hang Seng futures down nearly 600 points. I guess that's why the short has remained open. Are we heading for carnage tomorrow? Next thing USA will bomb Iran! Looks like investing is over as a profitable enterprise! Should've gone to cash!

I don't think you can accuse IAG of going up forever, IAG! RR maybe but not IAG. You are determined to undermine confidence on this board for whatever reason with your pontifications on inflation and future passenger numbers etc. You have no clue anymore then the rest of us or maybe you own a crystal ball 🔮 but I definitely feel that all the negativity is overdone. I guess we'll find out this evening but judging by the US stocks this pm so far, maybe the news won't be as bad as expected. 🤞

You seem to be determined to accentuate the negative in your commentary, IAG. I'm beginning to think you're shorting this as if you're not a holder your propensity to post strongly negative sentiment on IAG is to say the least, peculiar! Maybe we should call you IAGshortterm!

There's a lot of scare mongering going on at the minute around the effect tariffs will have. It might not be as we're being told as I believe a lot of this rhetoric and even market reactions are designed to put pressure on the Trump regime to pull their punches. Time will tell!

Tariffs don't affect airline customers nor airlines themselves, actually, IAG. The dollar is virtually 1.30 to the pound which is better than it has been and Trump wants a weaker dollar so the cost to visit the US should reduce. USA is still and will continue to be a hugely desirable destination for Brits and likewise for Americans coming the other way. Common language and all that.

There has been an underlying tendancy for commentators and brokers to warn constantly that a slight economic downturn means folks will stop flying. It's been debunked several times in the last year or so but they still persist with their negativity! They'll be proved wrong again. UK has circa 70 million people, many of whom have plenty of spare cash (savings rates have dramatically gone up) so I believe demand will always outweigh supply barring the most extreme events e.g. COVID! Air travel is a priority for a huge swath of the population.

If you go back to 2008, the EU nominal GDP was greater than that of the USA by circa $16 trillion to circa $14 trillion but now the USA is at circa $30 trillion whilst the EU has only progressed to circa $20 trillion. And don't forget the EU has been applying disproportionately bigger tariffs on US imports during that time or to put it another way, a lot of the EU's wealth, particularly in Germany, has come directly from the US consumer due to an imbalance of trade. I'd love to know how you propose that Spain and other EU members replace that trade, worth 100s of $ billions to the EU each year, Xhita! The EU is not geared up for dynamic growth especially without the US. Too much bureaucracy and a bloated welfare state! Maybe you are suggesting jumping into bed with China with all the security problems that would bring! Once this tariff stuff settles down, EZJ will regain its previous market value and more!

Never take any heed of a poster who predicts precise shares prices. They're always just making it up to either scare or excite other investors. Pavriko is no exception! Best ignored.

Makes sense. The idea that rich and even not so rich Americans are going to stop travelling to Europe is ridiculous and for that matter UK and European citizens will continue to travel to the States as it's still the business and tourist capital of the world. Maybe even more so when UK and European companies relocate there to avoid tariffs, which will inevitably mean company executives and others travelling to the US more often. I see RR are already exploring such options!

Your anti American musings are wrong headed, Xhita. The US economy makes up 26% of the world economy so a very big player which cannot be just replaced or ignored! What happens with their economy affects the whole world whether we like it or not! There was inevitably going to be a reaction against globalisation within the west at some point and Trump is the manifestation of that. The same could happen in Europe too, if certain political parties win elections. Giving up on large swathes of manufacturing to become dependent on importing manufactured goods from China, Thailand etc. is not universally popular and has consequences for a country's ability to offer it's citizens well paid, reliable employment. Maybe a rebalancing has begun.

Well said, FQ. It also seems almost like a coincidence that all the recent negative news has arrived consecutively or maybe it's not a coincidence!

I think you'll find that Europe needs the US market to export its goods into, Xhita. Ask the CEOs of Mercedes, BMW and VW/Audi! It's absurd to suggest that Europe would do fine without access to the world's biggest market and biggest by a long way!

I see UBS has cut their forecast to 1220p from 1270p but still recommending a buy. One wonders why the downgrade albeit small. I'd have thought after good results the forecast should go up. Nevertheless, I'd settle for 1220p! Holding up well, given the general market chaos. Let's hope it continues!

Looks like it's going to be a hard road to any kind of fair value with this company. Regretting my recent investment in this as the market is clearly not a fan!

And lots of the expats living in the UK, visiting their homelands on a regular basis.

I think you need to calm down with the scare mongering, Pavriko! I guess you're shorting this!

Everyone knows that air travel is going to increase exponentially over the coming years and decades so there will always be demand and with a UK population of circa 70 million, lots of potential customers. I think all this crap in the press about airlines under pressure is deliberate disinformation to bring their market caps down for whatever reason. Maybe some of the influencers missed the boat with recent rises and want to hop on board at a lower price for the repeat cycle. I'm not a conspiracy theorist btw! Lol