Member Info for Gallmat

For getting license 6 yrs ago if they dropped their litigation. Panthera did their side and government did not do theirs.

Somewhere will the government have to explain why they made an agreement in principal if they thought their rights had no merit :). This at least puts some validity to the claim on PAT.L and i think a need for a court case

This video is a good watch. Old CEO being delighted that they reached an agreement

https://youtu.be/36NqgG4MZW8?si=hySERQrxYsjY402r

The MM can play with the spread due to the volume. Not enough supply and demand to close all.

These movements to me are a sideshow. When thr claim amount is announced we will start to get more volume and liquidity and the spread will close.

No doubt someone will kill the rally given the volume. But nice that we are at least moving upwards.

Some information of the spin out would help alot to underpin this as it supports the fundamentals

Yup.

CEO here is very professional, if you check his CV i think he was CFO of Canada's largest copper producer.

He also has the strange habbit of answering questions from investors honestly and doing what he says. Not that common in micro cap stocks.

Hull.

An interesting exercise is to look at greenx. Similar situation and also backed by lcm. Their claim is also circa 1bn max. I think ours is 1bn minimum.

You can see how their comments change over time. They also had a larger market cap at this stage i think

We are using arbitration from UNCITRAL rules ( in latest presentation).

I had to use chat gpt as statistics are less available. Seems like. 30pct from claimant, 40pct state and 30 pct early settle. As early settlement is also a win for us even using average it is 60% for us!. How this is priced ar 2pct probability god knows!

Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS):

• Win Rates: Investor-state arbitrations, often conducted under UNCITRAL rules, have more publicly available data due to the involvement of states and the public interest in these cases. According to a 2021 UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) report:

• Investor Wins: About 30% of cases result in a decision in favor of the investor, where the tribunal orders the state to pay compensation.

• State Wins: Around 40% of cases are resolved in favor of the state, either by dismissing the investor's claims entirely or ruling that the state did not violate its obligations.

• Settlement: Approximately 30% of cases are settled before a final award, often with confidential terms. Settlement can be considered a win for both parties depending on the outcome.

I noted on the reserve estimate being 10moz. 3 sources

1. Zak mir 10m to 20moz

2. Podcast said exceeds 10m

3. Prrsentation by indian side said more than disclosed.

I have links somewhere

I was also doing some reasearch on arbitrations.

Seems like only 70pct make it trial and of those the majority are won by the claimant.

Interesting that given this how you get 2pct chance of winning is nuts.

Even a random case is probably 50/50.

I need to check if the stats are under same rules and will then post

Yup a good bunch.

It is nice here. Hopefully we all hit a bit of gold!

Yeah. These are personal notes.

Anyway i find writing things down clarifies things and these boards are not recommendations just discussions

No brit. Girlfriend is hungarian.

Worked in finance in city 4 years

Budapest.

I have all these thoughts written down. Just not sure how to share them

Amazing. Record gold price and still loosing

And we are back down again :)

Well done Market makers:)

Being a market maker seems so easy.

Collect when low, keep sell price low. Flog off your inventory. Buys exhaust themselves and wait for some seller to take low price

I am coming around to 1.5billion gbp. Just depends on the argument and valuation method.

I do wish MB would mention accrued interest more. Getting say 6% on 1 billion usd a year is a big point or 20% over 3 years. I will need to clarify this with him again

Why would they?

Just let price rise and sell of your inventory.

Then raise bid so people offload

One thing that hit me. The company has indicated a resource of 10moz+ twice.

1. Zak mir interview. 10 to 20moz

2. Podcast said. Much larger than 10m oz

An interview with the geology service also indicated 7.2moz is underestimate. They said 1 area had larger resource simply due to more drilling being done :).

All of these resources are based on a much lower gold price. Higher gold price more you can recover and include.

I did a long write up for new people circa 8 pages with references. Still work in progress but i thought we should have something we can share for new people who arrive.