Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi Milo.

"..they talk about ability to service $2.8bil / year Dividends and / or debt repayment,"

Please do carefully read exactly what was stated with this prediction.

Your follow on calcs are GIGO unless you understand exactly what is the predicted data that was being presented.

ATB.

GK.

Yes. I suspect there are a good few of the more savvy amongst the subscribers to that loo paper who see the drivelings as pretty good surefire contrarian indicators. The most recent bit of 'fakery' was classic.

This co here has astonishing potential. Realisation of that is what's required to release true value. It will come.

Please All DYOR.

GK.

Hi.

On having a plough through the 2017 AR and RNSs 2/11/17 & 22/5/18 I'm concluding there are presently 4,849,757,667 shares in issue and 648,416,595 options of interest. A further 205,949,134 historic options expire on 29/7/18, but have an exercise price of 0.3p so are very unlikely to be exercised.

Though obviously potentially dilutive, the 648m recently awarded options would bring in some £428k in funds to the co if exercised. It is of note that the exercise prices at 0.0575p and 0.075p are not particularly challenging. With that and the recent cash raise the co has the potential to be in a particularly well funded position for quite some time ahead if the co can deliver progress that attracts interest in the shares and so provides a degree of revaluation making exercise expedient for holders.

That could in turn significantly change the risk attitude towards EUZ as it could well be valued far more with regard to the potential of the project rather than at the depressed levels that arise with tiddlers that have a chronic history of perpetual placings.

Can the shackles be broken?

Monitoring position taken so far over last few days.

See how things develop. The placing shares may drag.

GK.

I'd have thought - particularly as the co has said so many, many times - that an 'experienced miner' would thoroughly understand that the primary risk of overrun etc was obviously also the most difficult and high risk aspect of the build, especially if they had been 'sat at the dinner table...' ............btw It's not the tunnel.

GK. Canape anyone?

https://twitter.com/siriusminerals

GK.

SOP resource: "A new province".

The build out: "A self funding growth model".

DYOR.

GK.

Tnx Prevost.

Slow and quiet catch-e-monkey here.

ATB.

GK.

the value potential beng - at least partly - recognised now.

Also good vol developing.

GK.

Added .6m.

DYO

GK.

31.6ish. "Must still be in bed. He sold everything at 31.96pence. Saying he felt sorry for us still holding." Reeeeeekraaaaab!! Cup of tea? Gorralaugh. GLA. GK.

Glad I bookmarked it. The thanks go to thems that first flagged it here - it's that sort of material appearing that keeps me looking in!!!!..................and of course your and others continuing in depth diligence and analysis Myo ;->> Days when it's like rooting in a skip and finding a goody.....and then others when it's like observing objects that are floating to the top in...umm.. another type of waste facility...;-// ATB GK.

Morning Myo: "typo two instead of three.......as mentioned by Graham Clark (ops director) in an industry presentation earlier this year...sorry no link. I think I must have missed GC presenting, however Simon Carter did indeed mention the possibility of reducing to two drives if the first from Wilton were able to continue to Ladycross from the present planned termination at Lockwood. This Feb (just pre DMC) pres to the London Institute of Civil Engineers - ~27m in: https://www.ice.org.uk/eventarchive/north-yorkshire-polyhalite-project-london The whole pres gives a lot more colour from the geo perspective than others. GK.

"The target is up to 7mt/y" CF, BMO ~32m in: https://cc.talkpoint.com/bmoc001/051618a_as/?entity=31_DMX6IRJ and then covers the newer thinking on TorP deals and potential gain sharing. GK.

"...circa 1/5 (£8K) of my annual s..." "ere Chesh I see you"re well on form, whacking "em out by the hundred. So who are these lunatics who pay as much just so you can...um...how to put this?....Bash it!!... all day long?.. ;-))) And are they dishing out more jobs? Second thoughts, scrubb that.....far too content with chosen skive status me. ATB. GK.

Morning Dub All future contracts will have an element of business risk - that's commerce for you. But do you think Sirius would bother signing up anyone for a TorP that is not going to pass the criteria they have been given by the mandated lenders? Since getting St2 as pure debt* is the much stated ambition, signing such a deal would be pure foly. No? ATB. GK. *Debt vs new issue equity for St2. Goose please do the sums for yourself on this, they have been presented many times here yet you don't want to accept the rational.

a distant animal rumble? Must confess to having been keen of late to address elsewhere the 'sub radar' status here. Maybe? Ha, as if!! It's a hold and grab more when you can. Sea is changing and to get more choppy I reckon. GLA. GK.

goes both ways. The price reduction now offers a higher potential upside than earlier if good news drops - as it could any day, as has long been the case. With that the off load of 1/6 is reinstated just, leaving a more than useful £4.2k over. MTR was very tempting to add to in the interim though, painful to resist, but I'm sticking to the max 25% position rule for sub 50m mcap cos. Capital preservation has to be the first priority. Risky business. ATB. Keep sharp. GK.

I thought most would get this! My understanding: the guarantee is for lenders to the co. It is obvious why the co want maximum guarantee as it reduces their costs with lower rates. But also a Guv backstop offers a higher level of cover for lenders and so then offers a higher level of protection, re retaining control, for Sirius should 'adverse events' transpire. If Sirius get into a mess with the build - "heaven forfend, it can,t happen" screamed in unison, regardless Sirius will certainly want that risk mitigated to the maximum, and now - - - if they get in a mess and there is then no money left to complete the build and consequently shareholders have scattered and the sp has splattered and the debt/mcap ratio has soared, then be certain lenders will have the option to take the part completed WS mine from Sirius as a default asset. Then in time sell it on to someone who can complete WS, so as to recoup some of their loss. The mine will be built. But why would this tightwad Gov care about that? Afterall the mine still gets built regardless that in the above scenario Sirius and its shareholders are annihilated. The gov will care because if the above were to transpire - heaven forfend etc, yada yada - UK IR will then highly likely lose a very long term and massive amount of future tax take. If we accept the modeling on where revenue arises in future from a producing WS, the largest potential earner for the exchequer will be by far from corporation tax, if it's UK owned. How likely would it be a new WS owner is UK domiciled? Perhaps First (last)......or Cr*pita????? Do such a good job. No, it would go to a big international fert co or commod co. We know that. If lenders in large part have their loans guaranteed then they are far more likely to resist pressing the nuclear button on Sirius if bad times arise.They will logically instead give time to the co to sort something out. But this won,t happen? Well, providing this smart BoD (they are) can convince this (arguably ***ing stupid, are they?) Gov of the astonishingly overwhelming potential future revenue benefit of a maximised level of the vol of guarantee and the real risk of not getting that if they decline to cover, then a WS loss to holders (us) is far less likely to transpire if bad things (eg think ropes going ping at ~1300m - - no don,t Roulette, you won,t sleep for 3 years m8 ;-)) ). And the rest of you should not go around losing any sleep over shares either. Understand the issues, finesse risk if required. Sleep well. ATB. GK.

Interesting to note how highly incentivised the BoD are to see a higher sp into the end of this year with the vol of options - that are presently 'in the money' to only a relatively small degree - moving rapidly towards expiry in coming months. Let's hope the incentivisation bears fruit. Deals? More useful cash would also come in from exercising. GK.

Is informative - the developing strategy here has similarities. The rise from the 0.45 floor looks to be holding and persisting, perhaps it's a bit of commod speculation or perhaps more are grasping the potential for a value rerate if this co can secure an income stream from a holding. Explorer minnows that spend years drilling and seek repeated placings as the only source of funds for that exploration may find themselves in a trap of having a severely depressed valuation. Since those who regularly supply new cash are very determined to see that the valuation is low so as to be able to off load their new issue at at least some profit. Market participants will also not place a particularly high value on such a stock when they consistently expect further placings. Aisi there are two ways minnow explorers can free themselves from this trap: the big discovery - obvious, but few achieve this, or; develop another means of funding exploration. This is what RGM looks to be achieving. Though it appears as a struggle. Early days yet. But this is how it was also seen at SML 2y back when they took an interest in a co that was sitting on many unloved heaps of magnetite. That was commercialised, the income stream that arose has put them in a position where there is next to no need at all to further place. The value 2y back was some £3m, it rose some 12 fold over the next 12m......Freed from the shackles. The existence of unexercised warrants can also accelerate a rerate (example THR 9m back), as with little happening but cash burn warrants are seen as no more than a source of further dilutive issue. But if there is a rerate in process on a growing understanding that the placing shackles are being broken, warrants will get exercised during the rerate, that process providing fresh funds to the co, that then further reinforcing the perception of a collapsing need to go for future placing money - a positive feedback. This may or may not be where RGM is now heading, it's speculative. DYOR. I regular hear tell of the notion of paid derampers, who would pay them I wonder? Not something I would give much credence to, Surely they would be far more skilled? :-))). Time will tell. Position building. GL to holders. GK.