Member Info for GaiasKidney

Some nice snaps of shiploaders at the end there too.

Off for sherbert. HAGWEA.

GK. My MTR outstripped my SXX today - a surprise that!!

Evening Myo

Think about cash flow, production down time cost vs highly seasonal demand and compare to the price of a shed.....even a very bg shed.

I'm sure I read a long, long time ago they were factoring in 9 months of storage so as to not be put in a position where mining has to stop because they have nowhere to put it if it's not promptly going out to a customer.

9 months = 15mt at full phase two = ~11m m^3. 1330 long x 170 wide? Av 5m deep.

Could even be wood built:

https://freeassociationdesign.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/the-longest-wood-structure-west-of-the-mississippi/

How green is that?! Could get 'em fifty quid knocked off the Core D.

GK.

Tnx Myo. That clarifies it a bit more.

GK.

Wrote this 13/6 - when buying in:

Explorer minnows that spend years drilling and seek repeated placings as the only source of funds for that exploration may find themselves in a trap of having a severely depressed valuation. Since those who regularly supply new cash are very determined to see that the valuation is low so as to be able to off load their new issue at at least some profit. Market participants will also not place a particularly high value on such a stock when they consistently expect further placings.

Aisi there are two ways minnow explorers can free themselves from this trap: the big discovery - obvious, but few achieve this, or; develop another means of funding exploration. This is what RGM looks to be achieving. Though it appears as a struggle."

Becoming the reality then!

Is the reign of cash cow placings at falsely forced down prices ending......Some characters here may quite soon slip away, like willow the wisp.

Getting interesting. See how it goes.

GLA. All holders that is.

GK.

Hi Verde. Indeed yes.

Ref DFS RNS 17/3/16, Opex figures:

"By Expense Category........... 10Mtpa.......20Mtpa
..................................................US$/t........US$/t
"...................................................."............."
Raw materials and reagents......4.8..........4.8"

All getting steadily brought together.

GK.

Also of note that if built the new starch facility would take total UK production up some 50%.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Myo

From rns:

"2. Sirius will design and construct a binder handling facility with the support and expertise of ADM, at or close to, the Company's materials handing facility in Teesside"

1 to 1.5% starch used for granulation so @ 10mt/y of P4 then 100 to 150kt/y starch. Market prices ~$300/t, main sources corn, potatoes, wheat. Assuming Opex saving for Sxx as AD wil sell to sxx at cost?

Cheers.

GK.

Hi Px

Yes I expect the climate is at the forefront of thinking for many this year! I hear 45c predictions today down in the SW today? Life impacting. Stay safe!!

Though the causes are still debated ( I respect the evidenced scientific net consensus, but also understand science cannot offer absolute proof, however, politically that is no rational not to act imo), the reality on the ground is that change is happening as has been now for many years. More years with long hot dry summers, more periods of more intense storms.

This inevitably puts pressure on agricultural production, that and the many other identified pressures for more and better quality/higher value food combined with other sources of pressure on growing spaces make the case for doing as much as possible to sustainably improve what can be got from a piece of agricultural land. Fertilisation in a balanced way minimising waste whilst protecting the asset has to become a must ahead.

There is more ang expanding evidense that the Poly4 offer could be a very significant part of that fmu. So re:

" Do you think that climate change, which is affecting especially the northern hemisphere with its large land mass, will have a net benefit to our product, Poly4[?] ;-))............Yes.

A civilised 23c here today - though we need rain.

GK.

Confirmed aisi with a close decisivly above the previous well entrenched resistance.

The Herd will have taken note of the strong buying today (inc my adding - sure many did). Expecting a strong run up now into St2 finalisation. 2y on repeat? This is the Herd.

GLA. Cool heads.

GK.

Hi Funnythat. Welcome.

"I can’t see any obvious risks at the moment ! "

If you are looking at a ~20y investment horizon then there are a few particular risks, some in combination have the potential in an extreme situation to wipe you out.

One that has brought me to more diversify my investments away, some time ago now, from an 'all eggs in one basket' philosophy here is the proposed combination of the co taking on a large amount of senior debt combined with remaining constructional risk. How likely? Not that imo, but not zero.

Good luck with what you decide to do and please DYOR.

GK.

Herd is here H4. Ceiling resistance breaking.

Pattern was there.

Will there be be a response to CBs waiving, or will they............................drown?

GK.

Hi Tobin/Prevost

Good to see some PR effort here as this now leads in to the Way demo plant Study.The numbers will be interesting and hopefully a deal with firming up on Mou will rapidly follow.

That will get things moving re evaporation pond construction at Way (priority one fmu) so as to have somewhere to drain the old mine flood waters into and to then have timely, (q2/3 '19) concentrated feedstock salts for the plant, to coincide with its completion. Fmu this is the plan anyhow.

Re any impact on Sop pricing from the global introduction of Poly4 from Sirius, remember that though K2O demand in general is rising some 3%/y, demand for Sop in SO4's target region is estimated at some 5-7% higher I recall reading. P4 may substitute some potential Sop take up in the Far East market (SO4's target), but demand growth there is high and Sirius's shipping costs to for instance China will add some $200+ per t of K2O to a CAF price. Far lower for 1t of K2O from Sop from Aus. Room for both without pressing down on prices aisi.

Production commence by q3/4 '19 would look very good here.

ATB.

GK.

Also this from p99 of the prospectus on the MLA and IPA envisaged process:

"The terms of the senior debt facilities will be fully defined once the Mandated Lead Arrangers’ due diligence process has been completed. The Mandate Letter does not constitute a binding commitment to underwrite, provide or secure
financing, which remains subject to ongoing due diligence, the completion of definitive facility documentation, credit and other approvals, among other things. The Mandated Lead Arrangers will progress structuring and due diligence in relation to the senior debt facilities in parallel with the initial construction activities. See paragraph 11.6.4 (‘‘Mandated Lead Arrangers Engagement Letter for Stage 2 Financing’’) of Part 12 (‘‘Additional Information’’) of this Prospectus.
The Company expects to receive the benefit of a HMT guarantee under the UKGS for a component of the Stage 2 Financing. The UKGS was established in order to provide projects with access to a sovereign backed guarantee to help projects access financing. The Company received a letter of prequalification of the Project for the UKGS from the IPA in September 2015 and a subsequent letter in August 2016, following discussions with the Company about the Stage 2 Financing plan as outlined above, with the IPA confirming their interest in supporting the Stage 2 Financing. The prequalification process is a review process which takes into account considerations such as financial credibility, stage of development, need for a guarantee, significance and value for money for the taxpayer. Once a project has been prequalified, the IPA commences a due diligence process similar to that of a commercial lender. At the conclusion of this due diligence process, the Project will be presented to the HMT Risk Committee before being submitted to the Chancellor for approval. It is anticipated that the IPA due diligence and credit process will run in parallel with the credit processes carried out by the Mandated Lead Arrangers. This two-stage external financing strategy is designed to align appropriate sources of financing to the Project risks as anticipated during the development."

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/prospectus-and-aim-admission/

GK.

Prospectus under "Risks", p23:

" Finally, the Company expects to receive the benefit of a guarantee from Her Majesty’s Treasury (HMT) under the UK Guarantee Scheme (the UKGS) for a component of the Stage 2 Financing. The UKGS was established in order to provide projects with access to a sovereign backed guarantee to help projects access finance. The Company received a letter of prequalification of the Project for the UKGS from the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (the IPA, formerly Infrastructure UK) in September 2015 and a subsequent letter in August 2016 following discussions with the Company about the Stage 2 Financing plan, with IPA confirming their intention to support the Stage 2 Financing. The existence of this guarantee, if granted, is likely to have a substantial influence on the willingness of lenders to lend to the Company. However, approval of this guarantee in time for the Stage 2 Financing, or at all, cannot be assured,
as it remains subject to completion of due diligence by the IPA and the IPA’s approval of the structure, terms and documentation of the proposed facilities, among other things."

Since?

Target numbers disclosed by co first in Feb pres, with:

"Facilities:

Up to US$3bn total debt
>US$1bn commercial tranche
Up to US$2bn UK government
guaranteed bond tranche"

and soon after comment from RS in Chair's statement in AR '18:

"The construction of the first new fertilizer mine in the UK for a generation is an opportunity to create thousands of
jobs and bring significant economic benefits to both national and local economies. In order to fully realise this transformational opportunity for the UK, a partnership with the UK Government, in the form of a Treasury Guarantee under the Infrastructure Project Authority’s scheme, is essential."

Present state of play.

Clarity? Enlightening? From a BB??? No, no time soon, no time ever!.......But that's just another opinion of course...as are all others.

Go to source.

All to be resolved quite soon now................. imo.

GK.

PS: Myo I was interested in the MTS liner panel manufacturing plant at Wilton. Potential for reduced cost, potential for reduced traffic impact. Tnx

T4

Thanks for that informative graphical representation of the trades and the spread. It provides a lot of info at a glance.

I think you're right about here and at sxx in that at present for each I reckon it will take just one bit of the right news and there will be a very strong reaction.

GK.

Hi 100

Much work is already done on developing a cutting methodology for polyhalite. Joy (now part of Komatsu group) are the chosen mining equipment supplier and have provided Sirius with their experience so far from next door. This from SRK the 'Competent Person' for the Main Market listing prospectus of Sirius, May '17:

"9.8.2 Cuttability of Polyhalite
Polyhalite is a stronger material than would normally be mined mechanically and as such the
cutting conditions may present different challenges to those normally experienced when using
continuous miners. As a recognised leader in continuous miner equipment development Joy
has assessed the cuttability of polyhalite by testwork carried out on core samples as part of
the geotechnical test work for the DFS. This indicated that it may be difficult to cut, but not
abrasive to the cutting picks. CMs commonly cut material up to 70 to 80 MPa. Polyhalite intact
rock strength averages 65 MPa with some recorded tests being 110 MPa. Notably, Joy
recently tested one of its existing HM36 machines which is successfully cutting polyhalite at a
nearby mine and data gained confirms that the material can be cut and indicates the
cuttability targets set in the DFS are achievable.
Joy has recommended use of its newly developed 12HM46 CM, which is designed to
specifically deal with the harder cutting conditions that are likely to be encountered by being
heavier and more powerful than previous models. Cutting performance is a key parameter
and, as there is still limited worldwide experience of mining and mechanical excavation of
polyhalite, this aspect of mine productivity will be subject to continued investigation. Pick
consumption of 18.1 t cut/pick provided by Joy for the DFS was derived from its in-house
experience, database information, design work, and the limited testing undertaken. Recent
trials indicate this to be potentially conservative."

https://siriusminerals.com/downloads/prospectus-and-aim-admission/
-----------------
Many mines around the world with many and varying hardnesses of ores. Each will require their own cutting methods, each would have the appropriate machinery for that designed in and then applied...........proved that is, the investment in that is forthcoming.

There will of course be further learning on the job no doubt when they get down there. There's a lot to do before then.

ATB.

GK.

Morning Nige

Dummy by and sell will tell you that only the last trade of 7.5m was a sell. False pricing m8.

ATB.

GK.

PS: 5m before was me adding btw. Int no panick!!!

Hi Duster

Re grades and whether a mine can be profitable with low ones, I note your analysis but you've neglected in-situ leaching. Not presently used much but starting to catch on for the right sorts of deposit.

Thor's Kapunda was mentioned here earlier. This may turn out as ideal for that approach. See their rns 19/3/18 etc.

Kapunda may be the reason Thr is picking up now, there is to be news next week according to the developer.

See 'ow it goes.

GK.

Hi Backwoodsman.

I've expected for a while that it will be Kapunda that comes through first from Thor's portfolio on being developed and it now looks like Enviro are to start taking this forward with a view to progressing the site to production from in-situ leach.

https://twitter.com/EnviroCopper?lang=en

There is a big Cu resource now identified there and it has the potential to be a significant future cashflow provider to Thr. Mtr are imo pretty savvy with their investment choices and it is notable that with the few months back adding at Thr it was also alluded that Mtr may be considering more than just stakeholding here. Injection to build up at Kapunda? They do like their copper!

ATB. Nice to the positive at both here and Mtr.

GK.

Hi.

I don't think presently there is specific shorting activity or any converting by CB holders being triggered by the sp crossing this level, but instead it is more of a case that the market knows full well that the CBs are an ongoing overhang constraint on the sp having unfettered clearance to go to higher levels and will be until they are majority cleared out. That thinking being reinforced by previous conversions.

35p I see as psychological (the world of TA/charting and its odd ability to self reinforce), so much of what goes on re particular stocks sp movements (inc this one imo) gets driven by those who take TA on board. I expect most LTHs base their decisions on fundamentals and risk and then bet accordingly then stick it out. But it is only buying and selling that will move a price and that must only come in vast proportion from traders. Only some would come from LTH position takers and usually only when there is significant news.

Post St1 35p was first hit start June '17 (4/6/16, day high 35.5) during a fast (and already starting to me to look a bit febrile I may add) run up combining with the co fanfaring the start of this massive build at WS and Sxx going to the Main. But that also coincided with the first proper levels of CB conversion (barr two bonds on 3/5). 67 on 30/5 and a further 30 on 5/6.

Though it had been well understood on these forums since the CBs were issued in Nov '16 that there would likely be an overhang restraint on the sp because of them it appeared the sp had to push that barrier (where ever it was) to prove the reality - and so instigate converting from holders. The 'barrier' level was defined (in the minds of the TA fraternity anyhow) at 35p - it remains there now - even though it is not a real thing!!

What is now interesting this year is that 35p is getting pushed more often, fall backs are becoming less in magnitude and the next push then comes more quickly, chartist of course know this pattern as well.............and what often follows!

I don't do charting, however I recognise that it seems most of those active in the market follow it and I understand the self reinforcing nature of it.

Expect more febrile (in a good way) times in the months ahead.

GK.