Member Info for GaiasKidney

Morning Neil.

"sub-25p looks tempting at the minute..."

And ahead. But how long does that last?

Bad news or good news ahead? DYO..

GK.

Since it's SUCH a popular subject at present, perhaps go back to source? From the 11/16 CB RNS:

"The Issuer will have the option to redeem all, but not some only, of the outstanding Bonds:

At any time on or after 19 December 2018 at par plus accrued interest if the Call Value of the Ordinary Shares underlying a Bond shall have been at least US$ 350,000;...[today about 41p eq]

where the "Call Value" means the value... as calculated on each of at least 20 dealing days in any period of 30 consecutive dealing days ending not more than 7 days prior to the giving of the notice of redemption."

IMO the present sp movement has no connection to the existence or otherwise of outstanding CBs nor is it impacted by any associated shorts or change in them. But pass over that, there are points to make:

"redeem" is paying with cash not issuing shares fmu. A Q is would cash now (or in the near term) be more valuable to the co than either paying the 5y odd of CB coupon or diluting this on conversion?

After St2 is completed - assuming success with gaining $3bn of senior debt plus the bal (some of which may be new issue) - is it reasonable to expect this sp to have moved and then to hold above 41p? An ~£2bn Mcap?

The present mood would suggest not. But mood changes...and has many times. I imagine St2 success could kick it.

~1200 CBs will cost around £180m to redeem, but will also save the cost of some £75m of future coupon payments or an ~14% dilution to the issue if converted. For context if remaining CBs are not converted the existing shareholder base would get some £100m more every year in divi distribution on the present future earnings modeled expectation.

Something to ponder.

G'night.

GK.

Andy welcome back.

You buying then? I see you can't leave it.

ATB.

GK.

Bellers ;-)

Not that many though. Slicing elsewhere now.

This price is now pricing in a failure with St2 aisi. Happen? Can do. Likely? DYOR.

GLA.

GK.

MY my Mr Deem, that was a bit of a tirade!

A waste of your valuable time? Well...it will soon be lost in the mists of time here.

People invest what they are ok with. Some I've little doubt exaggerate.....a bit. Some may indeed borrow in 6 figs and place it on this horse. Some won't risk more than 2% of their investable. Each to their own eh.

With your: "anyone going to own up to how much they lost a few weeks ago when they panicked and sold out?". I sold some at 38 (wasn't panicking btw) and post this 'panic' (your word) bought some back sub 25 (not panicking then either). Since: sold some at 31, bought back sub 28 - no panicking involved there!

Just relatively small amounts, core holding stays in place at pres. This is how I reduce the risk of holding this co. That way the reward potential of being comfortable to hold far more than a small 2% is far greater....Even if wiped out there will be little damage.

With the sp at 27 there has only been 3 days of late when this was sub that. Not that many days realy to have crystalised a loss compared with holding. No?

Take care M8.....and welcome to the forum.

GK.

PS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPoOgCSjdl8

have to ask? :-)

Hi Milo

" Chris Fraser bough the mining rights for York Polyhalite for about GBP25 mil some 10 years ago. "

Not from my understanding he didn't.

I think it was a figure far far lower than £25m that was expended by Fraser via Sigiriya Capital in the founding of York Potash Ltd in 2010 and also obtaining the the mineral rights and commissioning Wood and Smith as advisors. I have seen speculative figures of a few hundred Ks but not anything that is backed by evidence. At the time YPL had no published formal accounts. A dig for you there Myo? ;-).

This was said about YPL in the RNS:

"Founded in 2010, York Potash Ltd has yet to submit formal accounts. According to the latest management accounts of York Potash Ltd, as at 11 January 2011 York Potash Ltd had Net Liabilities of approximately £144,000 and had incurred an operating loss of approximately £362,000 for the period to 11 January 2011. The liabilities of York Potash Ltd included a loan of £176,385 from an entity related to Chris Fraser which is to be repaid as part of the acquisition."

£25.1m was the then market value of the 150m New Ordinary Share that SM paid out for the acquisition of YPL. 112,500,750 of that issue went to pay C Fraser and C & J Fraser Investments Pty Limited.

Fraser's and present shareholders interests are indeed aligned - he retains his shares, however all should understand that at present the by far vast majority of paper gain he has still arises from the sale of YPL to SM............Though if/when this moves to fair value with risks majority removed that should change. While risk remains other outcomes remain possible.

GK.

Soooooooo many newbies and all on the same day. Welcome to you all.

Now I'm not a cynic but...............(well, yes I am). I wonder that if LSE were to do a little dig as to the postcodes associated with the ISPs of all these sudden new accounts then just what would they find?

I do so hope they don't all end in 'YU' :-)) Perish the (so Cynical) thought.

GK Old, grizzled.

PS: All welcome though. Great prospect.

Haha Myo!!

"what has the average PI done in the same period other than regularly moan and criticise.."

Are you not confusing ya 'average PI' with the regular denizens (of doom?) here?

£30k each. Errrr..........that's it.

GK.

How exciting! I see the creatures of the DFs - particularly those recently arrived - are becoming quite transparent and now hinting at their 'special' knowledge as they thrash about. Yada yada. Not very 'dark' realy!

With all this noise all can conclude that it's fully understood by the DFs that St2 is just ticking along fine and also to the scheduled endgame...........or else why all the skeleton rattling and desperation to try and talk this down just a bit more?

Outcome of 5.7bn or 6bn or 7bn once done and dusted? Maybe, but you have a fully financed project...........and I expect a valuation that properly reflects that then promptly comes about. The $3bn senior debt component (more than 80% of the total requirement) is scheduled to be committed before full St2 wrap up. Market knowledge of this will inevitably positively impact the valuation.....and so also any pricing of any following placing that may be the route to get the (sub 20% remaining) balance in Q1 '19.

As Camp says: tick tock.

GK.

For those interested in following recent trade trending Taufour built an app from the trade data that plots a number of the most recent trades together wit the bid and offer. From it one can be pretty confident about if a given trade is a buy or a sell. have a play:

http://www.luku.org/cache/SXX/jj522afc1c87964a8488981997f2ca5c36/index.html

http://www.luku.org/taunine/

GK.

Keep up the good work Myo. You are not whistling in the wind.

GK.

"GK. Do you hold THR by any chance?"

Ah yes, still get misty eyed on that one. Commod micro wanabees are a dangerous place, but when the planets align!!

Peaked at 7.5m, took out 115k in ten months. hold a quarter of that there now. Few are like that. All funded by diversifying out of Sirius on 2/11/16.........A 'safety issue' decision.

ATB M8.

GK.

Hi Villagreg - welcome to gob5h1te central. ;->>

Quote:

'I wish investors would buy more at levels when share prices are really, really cheap .. when the market doesn't reflect the value but they'll never do that''.

''The psychology of the human being is such that we'd prefer to be wrong in a crowd … rather than be right in isolation''.

A chap who is regularly vilified and despised in equal measure - however is very rich from hard (and smart) investing work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUljtAuumno

In this interview get past the recs (he talks his book - ok by me but not relevant here), he then gets on to what has obviously been an extremely successful investment strategy. Can provide something to think about.

ATB.

GK.

...and running out of ideas.........Sure there will be a few further ones at the more febrile end of hypothecating (ie evidence = zero) however.

It may dip lower but it now looks like a good price to buy to me............So I 'ave!

GK.

Morning Milo

Tnx for the research, always appreciated.

Note that when you nip down to your garden center for potassium you won't find MoP on sale, you only find SoP.

As regards elements that are useful to plants as nutrient (SoP: potassium, sulphur) and ones with no nutrient value but that plants can tolerate (MoP has chloride - and many crops don't tolerate it particularly well), Nutritionally Sirius' Poly4 is a far closer match to SoP than it is to MoP.

Regardless of that Sirius are targeting the substitution of both SoP and MoP for blend formulations in their marketing and that strategy looks to be doing fine. Some $6bn worth of forward product sales so far are signed up, covering more than four fifths of the present design nameplate volume for the mine.

Not a particularly unhappy position to be in today when you consider Sirius stumped up £25.3m at the get-go and now has all this.

ATB.

GK.

"Muriate of Potash and Sulphate of potash have 60% and 50% of K20 respectively. "

Muriate of Potash, 60% K2O: $226/tonne

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/potash/1-year/

Sulphate of Potash, 50% K2O: $644/ton = $710/tonne

https://investors.compassminerals.com/investors-relations/investor-news/press-release-details/2018/Compass-Minerals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Results/default.aspx

EL you seem like a chap of impressive in depth knowledge. I have no clue as to why the price of SOP is more than 3x the price of MOP per tonne of contained K2O. If you could explain that extraordinary price differential and why that occurs to me I would be most grateful.

Ta in advance.

GK.

Newsflow is increasing and the sp seems to settle a little higher after each one. ECR look to be well financed in the medium term to support work schedules to better define the numerous discoveries and reassessments. From placing RNS 11/7/18:

"STRATEGIC FINANCING
ECR has secured a strategic financing raising GBP650,000 through the issue of 92,857,143 new ordinary shares ("New Ordinary Shares") at a price of 0.70p per share...Each strategic financing share has a warrant attaching to subscribe for a further new ordinary share in ECR Minerals plc at a price of 1.125p within two years of the admission date of the above financing shares. Should the 5 day VWAP of ECR exceed 5p, the Company will have the right but not the obligation to force the exercise of the remaining warrants by issuing a 7 day notice of accelerated exercise to warrant holders. Any warrants not exercised during the 7 day notice period would lapse."

Now 30%+ above that placing price.

If the news can further support this constantly above the 1.125p warrant conversion price conversions should come in providing further valuable cash.

Huge potential upside is available from the present ~£3m Mcap if drilling campaigns produce drill results ahead that can confirm or further expand on what has so far been identified on surface and from re analysis within ECR's multiple tennerments. Finding a load that can demonstrate commercial viability could send this much further still. Money appears to be being carefully targeted on the projects.

Highly speculative but well worth DYOR.

GLA

GK.

Hi Lives.

Possible, but I think less so than with St1. Was it a bargain? Not convinced in hindsight.

10% of the new share issue was offered then but with no discount to what the city got. So at the time of that well flagged raise any PI could have gone to their broker and asked to get in with the placing brokers to get a block of shares at the same price aiui.

I also anticipate (but who knows) that once the $3bn tranche of St2 is formally offered to Sirius (the 'letters'), covering the vast majority of St2, significant risk will then come off this and the market should react accordingly.

Should I expound that it may pay to not hold out for a supposed RI but instead drip in now..............No. That would be giving advice, haha.

GL.

GK.

Hi Myo

"in a way he is doing us a favour by potentially keeping the more transient and easily spooked mob out?"

In providing sp stability? Maybe.

However maybe this is all about something far more venal. There is the sniff in the air of a placing 'beast' to be ran down and killed. Very large amounts of money are made by 'city boys' with placings, particularly if the pricing can be (let's say) engineered substantially below what would be at the time seen as 'fair value'.

Heaven forfend one would conclude that Crumby is the creature of city boys, but let's just say he's often seen in a London office and does take phone calls. The vast majority of takers of placings are flippers.The more suppressed below what is fair sp wise the placing goes for the more the 'kill' on the flip when fair value is (almost always inevitably) recovered post the raise. Highly attractive to venal types.

It's old school, it's a dirty game. But the likes of CF and TS are also very well familiarised with the 'rules' and how to get back. They are blooded but not in any way down, they have the means. Their weapons are us - the PIs and the now far more extensive list of firms Sirius has critical commercial relationships with.

Today's pres has great pics (mentioned earlier) they are not there to look pretty rather to demonstrate the seriousness of the undertaking to All and that this project shall not be held 'hostage'. Investors should understand hold fast to that, despite noises off. Also if there is a placing ahead this now large group of firms have a very strong interest in not seeing this delayed or it be at increased risk of failure. They will think seriously I hazard about taking share allocations at not very much off any fair value to protect their interests. So putting city flippers at seriously diminished upside potential.

So though it looks like an anti SXX campaign developing with high gains for some being targeted, I expect on the outcome the rewards in certain quarters will transpire to be pretty megre.......and beneficially a more stable investor base on board.

It gets built.

ATB.

GK.

Casapinos! Oh dear, oh dear! That's so irrational.

1/ No co in their right mind uses the word 'will' when talking about a planned, but still in negotiation, element of a process yet to occur. Nor will I.

2/ "prefer to publish together"? The agreeing to commit via letters from the MLAs is just SOOOOOOOO major price sensitive. Keep it secret?

Sorry M8, at that point I gave up reading the rest.

Have a good day.

GK.