Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi Myo

"..clarify the bit about the liner to account for creep in the...was it halite seam?"

That the design critical cannot be emphasised enough:

https://business.financialpost.com/legal-post/potash-corp-sues-over-alleged-flaws-in-construction-of-2-2-billion-new-brunswick-mine

GK.

SL!!

Now then number crunchers. Let's just hope Fraser and Staley are keeping a close eye on the finalising of the definition being kindly hammered out here...........Their (up to a max £3 1/2m odd) bonuses are going to depend on it.....it seems.

Ah yes, seams. Starter for ten with all these calcs. Input data. Question 1: what is the co chosen cut off grade of source polyhalite ore to go to produce salable product? Question 2: what are the seam thicknesses at SM11 and SM14 that have polyhalite at or above this cut off?

Do like a good calc..........But DYO.. more so!

HAGW All

GK. Getting there that matters.

I expect that by far the largest part of the uplift is accounted for by the transfer of risk.

Not itemised though.

All a bit academic until the final budget comes in.

Tnx for the reports chaps.

GK.

Morning paaa

"Yet by far and away, the single most important thing I’ve done - bar none - is chew the cud with and look our CEO and Chairman in the eye"

What an interesting few beers that was!.........Post the first planning 'horlicks' - Golden Plovers!!! Realy? And in the midst of what was unkindly described as the 'death spiral' financing...............Tricky times, many a bit febrile and T&E?

I enjoyed your hug after btw, so did H....though she looked a bit bemused at the time! ;-)

How things have moved on since. But for those in the thick of it and for those who follow, the question still has to hang:

is Terry right or wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBbuUWw30N8

ATB.

GK.

Looks like the 'Market' was displeased with Syme and has got its way.

Project is bigger than people?

Certainly big.

GK.

Ha, yes..........pedantry induces irritation and so forces explanation? Mebbe.....or maybe a side step?

For Sirius first P was in reality on 27 October 2011 with:

"65 metres of polyhalite (potassium sulphate) mineralisation within the Fordon evaporites including two zones containing a total of a 19 metres (true thickness) of massive higher grade polyhalite;"

3 bagged in short order.....demweredadays.

GK.

Indeed Milo........SL I know you are a lazy b*******d, but I feel generous ;-)

From p97:

"Long-term Incentive Plan
.....we intend to grant LTIP awards of up to 500% of salary to Chris Fraser and up to 475% of salary for Thomas Staley .... our ambitious goals for the Project through the next phase of development and the prospective construction over the next several years of a complex and large scale project and first mining of polyhalite. This event is expected to be a seminal and unique achievement for the Company in its lifecycle......the vesting of the 2018 LTIP awards will be based on the critical milestone of first polyhalite being extracted from the ore body."

You can define it as a 'milestone' on the 'journey' or perhaps a 'seachange' on this 'ocean passage' with regard to the risk - with this project...........Or choose other flowery metaphors. Regardless this BoD (and remuneration committee) have attached a very large amount of cash/shares incentives to two individuals on achieving it... and when.

It shows that this leadership see the shaft sinks (two sinks? 'Second polyhalite' then is better maybe? One shaft won't make much of a mine if you can't breathe) as THE most crucial and risky aspect of this project (not the tunnel), indeed Fraser has said so many times and the industry in general gets that. Unsurprising, there is a lot of tricky geo as you make your way down.....Good thing they have Clarky. I reckon he'll be having to go down those holes many a time with the DMC 'mechano monkeys'.

Getting it done faster makes a massive difference to the bottom line ahead with the first post production years:

" encourage rapid and early construction which, we believe, will result in significant additional benefits to shareholders, potentially of many hundreds of millions of pounds."

providing it is done properly - contract terms on that one not in our domain.

GK.

No Prob.

Relevant section to this:

"Long-term Incentive Plan
Subject to shareholder approval of the Policy, we intend to grant LTIP awards of up to 500% of salary to Chris Fraser and up to 475% of salary for Thomas Staley following the 2018 AGM.........

'Ordinary award' (up to 200% of salary for Chris Fraser and up to 175% of salary for Thomas Staley).
Vesting of the ordinary award is linked to the delivery of the first polyhalite by 31 March 2022 for maximum vesting of the ordinary award. Given the scale and complexities and nature of the Project a threshold award would
vest regardless of when first polyhalite is delivered. However, the amount that would vest in this case would be modest (20% of the ordinary award).

% of ordinary award vesting:
31 March 2022 100%
30 June 2022 75%
31 October 2022 60%
31 December 2022 50%
30 June 2023 35%
First polyhalite achieved 20%

‘Exceptional Stretch Award’ (up to an additional 300% of salary).
Vesting of the exceptional stretch award is linked to the delivery of the first polyhalite significantly ahead of schedule. If polyhalite is not delivered by 30 September 2021 then none of the exceptional stretch award will vest.
Maximum vesting of the exceptional stretch award requires this milestone to be delivered by 15 March 2021.

% of exceptional stretch award vesting:
15 March 2021 100% [2y 5m]
31 May 2021 70%
31 July 2021 30%
30 September 2021 10%"

The significance to All of 'first polyhalite, when that day comes, cannot be underestimated......and I very much doubt you'l be seeing Mcaps > £7bn before then......but who knows?

GK.

Hi Aubery

From p92 of the 2017 AR

GK.

I guess from the valuation here that there is not much awareness as yet as to the potential of the Bonya licence and the already explored vanadium within. Then again there will be a fair amount to do to realise that potential.

From the 24 Sep '18 RNS, Billing:

"Jervois vanadium / titanium historical drilling programs have resulted in very high grade assays, and we plan to review this very exciting opportunity in the coming weeks. Global vanadium pricing has moved up aggressively over the past few weeks, with Argus Metals quoting the latest price for vanadium contained within ferro vanadium delivered Rotterdam at US$100,000/tonne at 20 September 2018."

China V2O5 currently at 27.5/lb. Chart;

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/

Drilling maps from the Jervois project of Arafura (previous licence holder):

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070619/pdf/3130nxq19wp71q.pdf
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100729/pdf/31rkpl7q8yfn81.pdf

The later map has the Casper Magnetic Prospect. Selected vanadium assays:

"UNRC018 49 metres @ 0.96% V O(5)
UNRC019 54 metres @ 0.72% V O(5)
UNRC024 50 metres @ 0.62% V O(5)"
18 holes total. Majority had strikes at less than 100m down.

A rough 'fag packet' gives ballpark ~$4.6bn of Va 'inground' value.

Parameters - very rough estimates

Drill area of drills assayed: ~500m x ~300m
Av intersect thickness: ~30m
Av grade V2O5: ~0.5%
Density V2O5: 3.4

Gives ~76kt of V2O5.

V2O5 price 10/18: $60k/t.

Remote but would be a low cost operation imo. A potential significant kicker to Molyhil.

GK.

Morning

Further to: "Sinking at the Service shaft (and later the Production shaft) won't be starting for some time yet. The Foreshaft chambers need to be completed......" Etc. The Phase 7 works at WS app (NYM/2018/0585/CVC) was lodged with the Parkies in early Sept (Myo put this up aaaaages ago). It gives detail of the works ahead at the 2 deep shaft sites (not the MTS shaft) that are to be completed before DMC move on to site.

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/northgate/documentexplorer/application/folderview.aspx?type=NLP11GL1_DC_PLANAPP&key=814362&iWgrnzsWW4I=aH8Pp24Bn4U=

Particularly sec 3 of:

public 2018-08-31 supporting information - construction method statement.pdf

and drawings:

public 2018-08-31 plans.pdf

As with the MTS shaft the initial sink to ~ 120m bgl for the Production shaft and the Service shaft will be via VSM. DMC then come on site to commence the sinks to ore level - 'first polyhalite'. Aiui.

GK.

Haha Jingles. Hi.

This is the perils of the combination of having (a stupid) predictive text device and it's owners (yes DC :-) ) getting lazy!

"road heading" there is little doubt should have read: 'roadheader' - a tunneling machine. Look 'em up.

You are of course right about the constrained road access to the Woodsmith site. But it's a National Park and the parkies (planners) would only allow the bare minimum amount of modifications to the access routes Sirius required for them to be able to make it viable to build this mine. The first onground work that was done after they gained planning permission.

Welcome to the madhouse btw.

GK.

on BBC R4.

GK.

Hi DC

"When is the the road headed at Woodsmith starting we could do with another tick in the box and some PR."

Are you thinking of the MTS shaft sinking? 8/10:

https://twitter.com/siriusminerals/status/1049228828076376064

Sinking at the Service shaft (and later the Production shaft) won't be starting for some time yet. The Foreshaft chambers need to be completed (part done at Service shaft, D walling continues at Production shaft) and then the winders need to be installed. Mid '19 for fist shaft proper sinking?

GK.

SXX
Whether to buy or not to buy
5 Sep '18

First timer. I've been tracking this share for near on 2years, highs and lows. Missed buying in on a number of occasions at around 20p but living in fear that this is a loser and in 20years time will be remembered for that reason.
Having read the Financial Times, Motley Fool, and others over the last month or so. Running scared on both a funding and likely demand for this product. Can someone allay my fears.

"SXX
Last night's closing price
7 Sep '18

Did anyone see a closing price of 25.68 last night?

Hoping it opens considerably higher today having bought in.

SXX
RE: What a start..
Today 08:22

Can't believe what I'm hearing, sit tight, sit tight, sit tight. It's almost like going down on the Titanic. Whilst maybe a paper loss at moment, with doubts now being raised over St2 funding, for me all out yesterday at a loss. I won't be going down with this ship."

And Debenhams!

GK.

Morning Myo.....

".. the shaft sink will continue and continue all the way......will the sp be sinking then?"

Haha. Just too (fate?) tempting m8!

https://thestarphoenix.com/business/mining/maintenance-slows-progress-on-massive-jansen-mine-east-of-saskatoon

Let's get through this 'little' issue first eh ;-)

Piled in this AM....again. Tut tut.

ATB.

GK.

best investment ever:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAHOMuiipsE

Be brave!

GK.

suspended

GK.

"DMSXX

RNS Number : 9552S

Sirius Minerals plc

29 June 2018

Sirius Minerals Plc

Total voting rights

In accordance with the requirements of the FCA's Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules 5.6.1R, Sirius Minerals Plc (the "Company") confirms that, as of 29 June 2018, the Company's issued share capital consists of 4,700,464,050 ordinary shares of 0.25 pence, each with equal voting rights."

Do concentrate!

Also note there will soon be 95m shares issued. Good or bad?

GK.

"Any one else notice we have acquired a couple of million extra shares today"

Ummm...no. Ummm...because we have not.

Issue on SM wsite tallies with 4/10 RNS.................Unless you know something different? ;-)

ATB.

GK.